Saturday horse racing preview: Tom Collins' tips for Dovecote day at Kempton

The Cheltenham festival is now just over two weeks away and excitement ahead of the showpiece meeting is set to reach an all-time high. This Saturday might be the final chance for potential Cheltenham players to strut their stuff. Will we see a Supreme Novices' Hurdle player emerge from the Dovecote? Tipster Tom Collins provides a race-by-race guide for Kempton's seven-race card.

1.15 Kempton, 2m4½f handicap chase

If competitive handicap chases are your thing, the opening contest at Kempton should be right up your street with eight runners set to go to post. There certainly isn’t a stand-out performer in this field and pinpointing the well-treated runner isn’t easy. Perhaps the underlay is Deyrann De Carjac, who tends to find winning difficult.

However, the value may lie with One True King, who finished tenth in the 2020 Champion Bumper and was sent off favourite for the Lanzarote Hurdle at this track last season. That race didn’t pan out for him - he had a busy schedule and found little in the straight - but he returned to form at Ascot in December and hasn’t run badly behind Venetia Williams-trained chasers the last twice.

The return to quicker conditions should suit, while the step up to 2m4½f can unlock some of his potential.

Selection: One True King @ 8.4

1.50 Kempton, 2m Adonis Juvenile Hurdle

Knight Salute, who is unbeaten in four starts over hurdles and landed the Grade 2 Summit at Doncaster when last seen, is the right favourite for this year’s edition of the Adonis. The market leader has won six of the last nine renewals of this juvenile contest.

Although he has been impressive so far in this sphere, we might have already seen Knight Salute at his best and his performances could flatten out sooner rather than later. He sets the standard, but it’s not overly high and Paul Nicholls, who has won this race with Irish Saint (2013), Zubayr (2016) and Solo (2020) in the last decade, has a great chance of enhancing his record with Pleasant Man.

If transferring flat ability to hurdling was an exact science, Pleasant Man would be favourite here. Rated 95 on the level after competing in top three-year-old handicaps for Roger Charlton, this son of Galileo has the ability and necessary stamina to win a race of this nature providing his jumping stands up.

Selection: Pleasant Man @ 5.8

2.25 Kempton, 2m4½f Pendil Novices’ Chase

Paul Nicholls has won six of the last ten editions of the Pendil, including with three Johnny de la Hey-owned runners. That trend is likely to continue this year as the pair are represented by Pic D’Orhy, who is rated 7lb superior to nearest rival Minella Drama.

Extremely impressive when landing the Grade 2 Noel Novices’ Chase at Ascot just before Christmas, Pic D’Orhy got racing too soon with the highly-talented L’Homme Presse in the Scilly Isles last time out and was immediately put on the backfoot after making a bad mistake at the last of the railway fences.

He was clearly the second-best horse that day and should appreciate this drop in class and the return to quicker ground.

Selection: Pic D’Orhy @ 3.1

3.00 Kempton, 2m Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle

The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle on the first day of the Cheltenham festival is the aim for Shallwehaveonemore, who beat smart prospect Walking On Air on his sole start on good ground last term and bounced back after a couple of defeats with a bloodless success at Sandown three weeks ago.

Gary Moore holds this five-year-old in the highest regard and, although his recent success came in all-the-way manner, he is more than capable of taking a lead in a race that is stuffed full of front-runners. 

The value in his price has disappeared over the last couple of days, but he is by far the most likely winner of the Dovecote.

Selection: Shallwehaveonemore @ 2.64

3.38 Kempton, 3m handicap chase

Undoubtedly the most tentative selection in this article is The Big Breakaway, who finished runner-up to Shan Blue in the Grade 1 Kauto Star at this track in 2020 but has failed to hit similar heights since.

Colin Tizzard has tried everything with this one-time promising seven-year-old, including a range of trips and differing ground, but if any day is going to be the day, it will be this one. The Big Breakaway is making his second start after a wind operation, a tongue-tie will be fitted, as will cheekpieces. Quick ground should suit and he’s well handicapped off 147 at his best.

The issue is that you don’t know what to expect from him and that he tends to be cautious at his fences, but in a race that features a number of similar sorts, perhaps he will shine.

Selection: The Big Breakaway @ 10.5

4.10 Kempton, 2m5f handicap hurdle

Storm Dennis would be an appropriate winner of the penultimate event at Kempton given last week’s meteorology report, and he certainly boasts strong claims after his three-length victory at Huntingdon when last seen.

However, he’s going to be well-found in the market and perhaps this race is rife for an upset. You don’t get too many Nicky Henderson-trained runners being overlooked in the market, but Farouk De Cheneau is likely to be a tasty price as he returns from a lengthy 714-day break.

This selection will be a hit or miss, there isn’t any in between, but Farouk De Cheneau is surely better than his mark of 120 based on a decisive hurdling success at Vittel in 2019. Although he disappointed on his first start for this yard, he will have strengthened up since and could cause a minor surprise.

Selection: Farouk De Cheneau @ 13

4.45 Kempton, 2m bumper

The Jonjo O’Neill-trained Itso Fury should be favourite here after a creditable third in an above-average bumper at Southwell last month. He will be hard to beat, but he has to give 12lb to four-year-old filly Realta Royale, who is the only winner under rules in this field.

Toby Lawes, who is also represented by Onewayortother, has a nice prospect on his hand given the way Realta Royale powered clear on debut at Taunton and similar conditions will enable her to use her potent turn of foot once again.

Selection: Realta Royale @ 3.4

Recommended bets:

One True King @ 8.4
Pleasant Man @ 5.8
Pic D’Orhy @ 3.1
Shallwehaveonemore @ 2.64
The Big Breakaway @ 10.5
Farouk De Cheneau @ 13
Realta Royale @ 3.4