Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Tommy’s Oscar looks primed to strike again at Doncaster

A rare trip to Southwell’s all-weather surface for a Saturday column selection proved fruitful last week as Diligent Harry sluiced in at a value price, but it is time to zone back in on the jumps action.

It doesn’t take a form analyst to tell you this weekend’s action is pretty bleak in terms of quality. There are a couple of interesting races - the Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso stands out the most in that regard - but otherwise we are looking at second and third tier jumps performers at a couple of elite venues.

The first of two tips on Saturday comes at Doncaster in the form of an extremely reliable type. Tommy’s Oscar has cemented himself as a real stablestar at Ann Hamilton’s Northumberland yard and the nine-year-old, who is second favourite at the time of writing, must have a great chance of adding to his thoroughly impressive winning tally in the 2m½f handicap chase (2.35).

An 11-time victor who possesses a 50% strike-rate over hurdles but has now graduated to fences, Tommy’s Oscar still doesn’t get the credit he deserves despite being awarded an official rating of 154 and snapping up a Grade 2 victory in the midst of a prolific career. He’s a very talented horse who just falls below the top level but is very tough to beat in this kind of contest.

He began this season with a romp at Kelso, which was incidentally a career-best performance on RPRs, before finishing fourth in the Grade 2 Old Roan Chase at Aintree in October. Hamilton decided to give him a spin over hurdles after that, which I presume was used for fitness purposes after a six-week layoff, and then tried 2m4f with him last time at Musselburgh.

That trip has always stretched him stamina so it was no surprise to see him slightly underperform. However, it wasn’t as bad a run as the form figure may suggest given he ran to within 3lb of his best on figures and only succumbed late after holding a prominent position in the race.

Dropping back to an extended two miles on good to soft ground at Doncaster is absolutely ideal - it’s similar to the conditions he got when smashing the talented Boothill here in January 2023. We also know that he’s well capable of defying a mark of 154 given he’s won off higher in the past. 

He meets a field of horses who are entering the veteran stages of their careers. Five of his six opponents are ten or older, and the sole anomaly (Homme Public) has been rather fortunate to win and finish second on his last two starts as horses in front of him have fallen in the latter stages of the respective races.  

I’m confident that Tommy’s Oscar has more upside than the majority of these so hopefully he can provide another decent prize for his fantastic trainer and another winner for this column.

It’s off to Newbury for the other selection, who runs 10 minutes earlier in a pretty interesting heat. The horse in question is Mountain Pass (2.25), a horse I hope will go largely under the radar due to his form figures of ‘5555’. I believe a strong case can be made for him being well treated on handicap debut.

This son of Kingston Hill took some money on his sole bumper start before running in three novice/maiden hurdles. He was very green on the first occasion at Doncaster, but quickly entered my tracker after finishing behind Jeriko Du Reponet at Newbury in December. The aforementioned winner is a leading light in the novice hurdling division this campaign, while the second, third and fourth are now rated between 105 and 113 and remain open to progression.

Obviously I can’t make a solid judgement after just one performance, especially when the horse was well beaten, so it was nice to see him justify my beliefs by filling the same fifth-place berth last time at Wincanton without clearly catching the eye. The latter part is key, otherwise value would be hard to attain on a horse like this.

The winner that day was Lump Sum, who is now rated 135 after a recent Grade 2 success. Runner-up Onethreefivenotout has scored since for Paul Nicholls, while the fourth-placed Lady Balko has won back-to-back handicap hurdles and looked good in doing so. Given the heavy ground wouldn’t have suited Mountain Pass, I thought he ran admirably and continued to shape like a future winner.

We could see the best from him on Saturday now that he’s back on better ground at flat track like Newbury, and I’m certain that his mark of 99 is fair. Harry Derham, who has a 26% strike-rate and level-stakes profit since he began training last season, chose to rely on him at the declaration stage from three entries in the race and this event looks eminently winnable.

Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips

Mountain Pass (2.25 Newbury) @ 18/1
Tommy’s Oscar (2.35 Doncaster) @ 3/1