Saturday horse racing preview: Ross Millar provides a race-by-race guide for Newbury

We have reached the calm before the storm as the vast majority of this year’s Cheltenham festival contenders await their day in the sun (or rain!). The Grade 3 Greatwood Gold Cup is the featured event at Newbury this Saturday and horse racing writer Ross Millar provides a race-by-race guide for the seven-race card.

1.15 Newbury, 3m2f veterans’ handicap chase 

Kauto Riko looks well-handicapped on two performances this season and is my selection in a trappy opening handicap chase. The first formline of note is his second behind Two For Gold at Doncaster in December, which has worked out as the eventual winner has since won at Lingfield and finished a fine second in the Ascot Chase. 

On his latest start, Kauto Riko finished six lengths behind the consistent 158-rated Aye Right in the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham and, even accounting for the 4lb he received, he surely ran to a mark higher than the 139 he competes off here. 

Kieren Buckley has had a good season to date and is operating at a 29% strike-rate over the last two weeks. His 5lb claim strengthens my opinion.

Selection: Kauto Riko @ 4.7

1.50 Newbury, 2m4f Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase

The opening betting show for the Greatwood Gold Cup had Dublin Four as favourite, however I’m not at all convinced that will be the case come post time. He still had plenty to do at Ludlow and looked an unlikely winner when falling three-out, and I’m sure he prefers a sounder surface. 

Tamaroc Du Mathan has got to bounce back from a couple of poor runs, but there are grounds for optimism and he rates the selection here. This will be his second start back after undergoing another wind-op - and often it’s the second run where the benefit of such a procedure takes effect.

He was soundly beaten at Sandown last time, but that was over 2m, which is short of his best, and it was apparent that Sean Bowen wasn’t in any way forceful on him, instead content to provide a hands-and-heels ride with the aim of building confidence for a future target. He arrives here 5lb below his last winning mark and has shown a liking for this track in the past.

Selection: Tamaroc Du Mathan @ 5.7

2.27 Newbury, 2m novices’ handicap hurdle

Punctuation is bound to be popular here after posting an improved effort to win on stable debut for trainer Fergal O’Brien, but an 11lb rise in the weights demands more and the form of that win is yet to be franked.

Punctuation: pictured winning at Warwick in January. Simon Marper

At bigger odds, I’ll chance Pearly Island on his handicap debut. He travelled nicely at Fontwell on his last start before looking a little bit awkward when put under pressure. But once he got himself organised he rallied well to finish second, beaten by just a head.

The long Newbury straight should allow him time to hit his stride, while softer ground might also elicit a bit more improvement. He is entered in two races early next week, so I see it as notable that Lucy Wadham elects to bring him here.

Selection: Pearly Island @ 13.5

3.07 Newbury, 2m handicap hurdle

Black Poppy and Lord Baddesley will be well-found in the market for this handicap hurdle, but I have questions over both. The former was keen in the early stages of his Hereford win and soft ground may not suit (he was a non-runner at Ludlow due to underfoot conditions). While the inconsistent Lord Baddesley appeared to run a career-best over course and distance in the Betfair Hurdle, but might have been flattered by passing beaten horses.

Straw Fan Jack is sliding back down the weights and is now 4lb lower than when a narrow second at Cheltenham at the start of this season. Like this, that was a Class 3 contest and, after running in better events recently, he might just appreciate the drop in grade. 

I would be happier if the yard were in better form, but, with queries about a few at the head of the market, I’m happy to chance him at the prices.

Selection: Straw Fan Jack @ 10

3.37 Newbury, 2m4½f handicap hurdle

Dorking Boy has been a tough and consistent performer for trainer Tom Lacey and ran another solid race last time when he just failed to peg back Thunder Rock, eventually beaten half a length with the third 17 lengths in arrears. 

The handicapper decided to keep him on his mark of 123, so he could be well treated, and he will love the soft ground. Dorking Boy is a former course winner (victory came off this mark), too.  

Kateson, another course-and-distance scorer, could be the main danger as he is now 6lb lower than when third at Aintree earlier in the season. Jay Tidball claims a valuable 10lb, but Kateson has an awkward head carriage and doesn’t look the easiest of rides, so he may just test his inexperienced jockey.

Selection: Dorking Boy @ 4.8

4.12 Newbury, 2m7½f novices’ handicap chase

A 7lb rise in the weights for Fuji Flight after his 16-length romp at Hereford doesn’t seem unduly harsh. However, Venetia Williams has reported a few snotty noses in her yard lately and her strike-rate has sunk to just 4% over the last fortnight, which makes him opposable. 

Mont Des Avaloirs’ last run was his first after a two-year break and he was far too keen, but his previously erratic jumping looked far more composed. 

That return run coincided with his trainer, Paul Nicholls, hitting a quiet spell and normal service was resumed with the yard now back in good form. There is every chance that he can take a big step forward, he will love the soft ground and is 5lb lower than when second over course and distance before his enforced break.

Selection: Mont Des Avaloirs @ 10

4.47 Newbury, 2m bumper

Firestream will bid to defy a penalty in the Newbury closer, which won’t be easy given the apparent strength of this race. 

Another interesting runner is Captain Destiny, who made a promising debut when finishing second over course and distance behind the talented Authorized Speed. Being by Kapgarde, he should appreciate this softer ground and looks sure to go well. 

However, newcomer Weveallbeencaught, was described by his owner as “a film star of a horse” after he paid £210,000 for him shortly after he won a Dromahane point-to-point in good style and any market confidence could be notable.

Selection: Weveallbeencaught

Recommended bets:

Kauto Riko @ 4.7
Tamaroc Du Mathan @ 5.7
Pearly Island @ 13.5
Straw Fan Jack @ 10
Dorking Boy @ 4.8
Mont Des Avaloirs @ 10
Weveallbeencaught