Royal Ascot Tips: all eyes on Saturday's Jersey Stakes for Tom Collins

Alfred Munnings (Chesham), Hurricane Lane (Hardwicke) and Home Affairs (Platinum Jubilee) will be the toast of punters on sparkling Saturday, but the best betting heat is undoubtedly the Jersey Stakes.

3.05 Royal Ascot, 7f Jersey Stakes

The Jersey Stakes has produced an array of results over the last few years. Le Brivido struck for Andre Fabre and favourite backers in 2017, while the likes of Ishvana (2012) and Space Traveller (2019) have caused shocks at 20/1 and 25/1 respectively. The constant is that eight of the last ten winners were helped by the drop down from a mile to this 7f trip.

This race has provided the perfect spot for three-year-olds who began their career sprinting and failed to stay in a Classic, such as the Qipco 2,000 Guineas, over a mile. The Jersey is the in-between paradise, and for that reason there’s no surprise that it always attracts a deep and competitive field.

However, just two horses from this year’s 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket will line-up in the Jersey. The first is Dubawi Legend, who boasts a similar profile to many former winners of this race. Reproduction of his runner-up effort behind Native Trail in last year’s Dewhurst would make him a leading contender, but he’s been flat on his last two outings and now comes with risks attached.

I prefer another Guineas also-ran in Tacarib Bay, who is a son of highly talented miler Night Of Thunder out of a 7f-winning mare called Bassmah. This colt lacks experience - he’s only run four times in his career - but he might make up for it in talent. 

Richard Hannon’s horses rarely win first-time-up nowadays, but Tacarib Bay defied the lowly strike-rate with an impressive victory at Haydock last year, in which he beat the now 101-rated Kingmax, who finished third in the Group 3 Hampton Court on Thursday.

He hasn’t won in three subsequent outings, but I thought he shaped like the best horse in the Group 3 Horris Hill last year and perhaps paid for getting involved in an early battle with short-priced favourite Noble Truth. He fended off that rival and burst to the front, only to succumb to two efficiently-ridden foes in the dying strides. 

Tacarib Bay returned with a promising second in Listed company at Newmarket in April, especially as he didn’t appear to love the undulations on the Rowley Mile, before being pitched in the deep end in the Guineas. He ran better than it appears on paper and certainly wasn’t helped by rival Perfect Power, who carried him left as they entered the dip.

A better performance is expected now that he’s back to 7f on a more conventional track and, given he’s already beaten market leader Noble Truth once, it surprises me that he has been completely forgotten about in the betting. Perhaps he needs some give underfoot, but he’s a value play nevertheless.

The other horse I’m interested in is Alflaila, who was incrementally moved up in trip from 6f to a mile last year by trainer Owen Burrows. He wasn’t mentally strong enough to challenge the likes of Coroebus and Imperial Fighter in the Group 3 Autumn Stakes in November, but there is no doubt that he hit the line relatively well and I’m sure that a mile will be tried again in the near future.

For that reason, as well as the fact that he recorded a huge career-best over this course-and-distance on his return last month, Alflaila strikes me as the perfect contender in the Jersey. 

His last-time-out success was supremely impressive and he appears thoroughly effective under these conditions. Not only did he defy topweight in a competitive handicap on his seasonal return, but he did so with ease and finished his race in the style of a bona fide Group performer.

That race was run at a steady gallop and, although it’s difficult to make all on the straight track at Ascot, it clearly favoured those on the pace. Alflaila raced in behind and looked to be struggling for a few strides when the pace quickened. However, once he was angled out he posted a wicked sectional from the two-furlong to one-furlong pole and put the race to bed with ease. 

I like that Dane O’Neill keeps the ride and his low draw is perfect. He’s my idea of the most likely winner of this year’s Jersey.

Recommended bets

Alflaila (3.05 Royal Ascot) @ 10.5
Tacarib Bay (3.05 Royal Ascot) @ 20