Ross Millar's Five Festive Ante-Post Selections

As a bit of a challenge the bosses in SBK Towers asked me to take a look at five festive races from an ante-post angle.

26th December

14:20 Leopardstown. Racing Post Novice Chase 2m1f

Unlike some I was deeply impressed by the chasing debut of Facile Vega, He showed scope and bravery when asked to attack his fences as well as agility and intelligence when getting in tight. Essentially he is the most likely winner of this, an extended two-mile trip will suit him and he has proven form at the track. However, at 4/7 he’s not an ante-post proposition.

At a bigger price Gaelic Warrior does interest me. He was mesmerising on his own chase debut, where he jumped and galloped some decent rivals into submission. Prior to that run I had him marked as a three-miler for this season given his dominant display over that trip at the Punchestown Festival. Yet in the immediate aftermath of his debut romp his trainer Willie Mullins hinted that they might entertain bringing him back in trip; history has shown us that as a trainer Mullins likes to keep horses to their absolute minimum trip where possible. Much has been made of his tendency to jump right when racing left handed but I see this as an overplayed angle and until I’m proven otherwise it’s not a factor I give much weight to.

This race represents the ideal time to test him at this minimum trip as it still offers ample time to go back up in trip before the spring festivals.

He is risky given he isn’t a certain starter but at a double figure price Gaelic Warrior would be my ante-post selection here.

14:30 Kempton. King George VI Chase 3m

A race that has been blown wide open in recent weeks after Bravemansgame suffered his second defeat of the season in the Betfair Chase at Haydock while on the same day Shishkin refused to race at Ascot. Connections of Gerri Colombe then intimated that they were strongly considering running here and the market saw a big correction.

Bravemansgame finished weary at both Wetherby and Haydock and in my opinion it will require Paul Nicholls’ finest ever training performance to see him regain his crown.

I haven’t fully discounted Shishkin but he can’t be advised as a selection at this stage as he could simply just have fallen out of love with racing – we may well know more after the re-arranged Fighting Fifth Hurdle next Saturday.

I’m not a fan of Gerri Colombe and a fail to see the appeal of him over a quick three-miles on a sharp track like Kempton, he’s not a fluent jumper and on more than one occasion has been shown to lack tactical pace – a prerequisite for winning at Kempton. Soft ground would improve his chance but the weather is even harder to predict than the race!

The price available for Edwardstone has contracted in the last week but he remains a double figure price which represents the best value in the market. A three-time grade one winner he’s undoubtedly a classy performer and even last year his trainer, Alan King, suggested they could go out in trip with him. His only try beyond two-miles resulted in a career best effort over hurdles when finishing strongly to finish third over 2m4f in a handicap at Aintree in 2021. He was outpaced by Jonbon in the Schloer Chase on his seasonal reappearance and it could be that as he’s getting older stamina, not speed will be his most potent weapon. He has a stack of top class form on right-handed tracks including winning the Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase at this course in impressive style. In a wide-open race I’m increasingly enamoured by the credentials of Edwardstone.

27th December

14:50 Chepstow. Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase 3m6½f 

As a proud Welshman this is obviously the highlight of the Christmas racing fare!

Habitually run on testing ground you need a dour stayer with bottomless reserves of stamina with a feather weight a big help – only two of the last ten winners have carried more than 11st.

Iwilldoit, last years victor, has to contend with a 13lb higher mark, that additional weight would not have stopped him last year, but the presence of the high-class Native River in the line-up meant that Iwilldoit carried just 10st last year, whereas this year a lack of a graded performer in the field means Sam Thomas’ charge will have to shoulder the welter burden of 12st. 

A mark of 132 should see Git Maker run of an attractive racing weight. He won a maiden hurdle on heavy ground at Chepstow on his rules debut with a further three of his five wins coming on soft ground. He’s yet to tackle a marathon trip but has delivered some impressive performances over 3m1f at Catterick. His return run this season, when defeating stable-mate Super Survivor, at Lingfield impressed me. He jumped with zip and accuracy before powering away at the finish. I’m sure the Snowden team will have left a bit to work with and it’s no secret this has been a long-term target.

Young, progressive, stamina-laden with an affinity for testing ground Git Maker makes plenty of appeal for the Chepstow showpiece.  

28th December

13:50 Leopardstown. Jack de Bromhead Christmas Hurdle 2m7½f 

Make no mistake last years winner, Home By The Lee, is the most likely winner but he’s only 9/4. Only once has he been returned at a shorter SP than that so consequently I can leave him for ante-post purposes.

The one who has the potential to shorten significantly, as well potentially yet untapped ability over hurdles is Sir Gerhard. He had a mess of a novice chase campaign last season. He jumping moderately when winning on debut before a string of small issues kept him away from the track. His jumping then fell apart when trailing in last but one in the Browns Advisory at Cheltenham. 

He did jump with far more alacrity on his seasonal return before falling, when yet to challenge, at Naas prompting connections to mention the prospect of returning him to hurdles.

He showed enormous potential over hurdles as a novice as well as demonstrating plenty of stamina to win the Ballymore Novices Hurdle - run on exceptionally tiring ground. The stayers hurdle division is lacking a real star and given his wealth of talent in all other divisions the percentage call is for Willie Mullins to switch this smart son of Jeremy back to the smaller obstacles. 

I’m confident Sir Gerhard is the most talented of these and if given the green light his price will tumble.

*If you like my logic here you might like to split your stake and back him ante-post for the Stayers Hurdle in March for which he is a best priced 25/1

14:25 Leopardstown. Savills Chase 3m½f 

This could be the most exciting race of the winter. Galopin Des Champs could potentially face-off against Fastorslow, who has twice got the better of him. Throw in A Plus Tard, Envoi Allen, Allaho (unlikely in my book) and the Robcur pair of Gentlemansgame and Gerri Colombe and you have all the makings of a race for the ages.

I find it exceptionally hard to find a preference amongst those at the head of the market, though I would be against Gerri Colombe – for the aforementioned reasons and Gentlemansgame who I feels is short of this class and is at his best on very testing ground (the like of which we don’t often see on the chase course at Leopardstown.

Instead I’m going to side with Banbridge, he’s long been a favourite of mine and I’ve been eager to see him over this trip for sometime. He finished strongly over 2m4f when landing the 2022 edition of the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hurdle at Cheltenham and again when winning the Manifesto Chase at the Aintree Grand National meeting. A decent surface is essential for him and his staying on second in last year's Irish Arkle at this course proves the track can suit him. 

His pace for two-miles means he’ll have no issue to travel in the early stages of the race and he could well spring a shock in this.

Recommended Ante-Post Bets

Leopardstown. Racing Post Novice Chase - Gaelic Warrior
Kempton. King George VI Chase - Edwardstone
Chepstow. Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase - Git Maker
Leopardstown. Jack de Bromhead Christmas Hurdle - Sir Gerhard
Leopardstown. Savills Chase - Banbridge