Race In Focus: Tom Collins previews the Juddmonte International and provides Wednesday's best bet
By Tom Collins
Latest York Odds16 August 2022
Will Baaeed stay the trip? That is the question on everyone’s lips as the World’s Best Racehorse takes to the track for the Group 1 Juddmonte International on Wednesday.
In order to thoroughly analyse a race, the punter has to try to cover every base. Only if there are enough ticks in the relevant boxes should a horse ever be considered worthy of a bet. In Baaeed’s case, the only box that isn’t ticked is proven stamina over a mile and a quarter.
We know plenty about William Haggas’ four-year-old after just nine career starts. He boasts an exceptionally high cruising speed; can be ridden cold or near the speed; relishes ground on the fast or slow side of good, and he’s virtually untouchable at a mile. No horse in the world can consistently run to the same level under Baaeed's optimum conditions, but to be classified as one of the greats he has to move outside his comfort zone.
His racing style, relaxed nature and pedigree suggests he shouldn’t have a problem with the increased distance, but it becomes a talking point given his prohibitive odds. It is supremely difficult to ever describe a horse as flawless, but Baaeed comes close. He may never win by far but he always wins with authority, and I’m firmly of the opinion that this five-time Group 1 winner should be making it six on the Knavesmire.
I certainly won’t be backing against him as the only horse that appears talented enough to challenge him - Derby winner Desert Crown - is forced to miss this event after suffering a setback. 1.41 is short, but it’s more than justified and therefore Baaeed has to be the pick.
Baaeed: looks for a tenth consecutive success in Wednesday's Juddmonte International
His main challenger comes in the form of Mishriff, last year’s impressive six-length winner of this race. A repeat of that performance (128 RPR) would ask questions of the jolly, but a 12-month winning drought and a couple of glacial beginnings on his last two outings offer up new worries. Maybe York will spark him back to life, but any lost ground at the start will prove difficult to overcome.
Three-year-olds have won four of the last eight editions of the Juddmonte International and the sole representative from the Classic generation this year is Native Trail, who seems to have been written off by many after his Eclipse defeat on his first try at 1m2f. There is no doubt that he lacked the firepower he showcased on his previous start in the Irish 2,000 Guineas, but he still remains a top performer and gets 7lb off his elders.
There is a chance that we’re yet to see the best of this scopey individual, but he won’t want the forecast overnight rain to get into the ground. If the going remains good, Native Trail could be a leading player for place money.
It’s hard to make a case for the four outsiders in an edition that lacks depth. Alenquer might make the pace but was stuffed by Mishriff in this race last year and finished behind Native Trail last time out. High Definition lacks a change of gear and can be readily discounted, while York Stakes winner and runner-up Sir Busker and Dubai Honour need to improve a great deal on official ratings.
Watch out for Boucher
Ian Williams is a master at his craft and deserves far more credit than he currently receives. Unfortunately, he just doesn’t have the equine talent - strength or depth - to regularly contest Group races and take on his more prolific counterparts. Only five horses in his West Midlands-based flat string have run to a mark of 100 or higher this season, none of whom are younger than five.
One of those is Alfred Boucher, a relatively new addition to the yard having moved from Henry Candy after a lacklustre performance at Epsom to kickstart his season back in April. In true Williams fashion, this six-year-old has now returned to something like his best and looks ready to run a huge race in Wednesday’s 2m½f handicap (4.10) at York.
This grey gelding showed plenty of speed early in his career - he was only beaten half-a-length by crack miler Sir Busker on his second start and a short-head by subsequent Group 1 Sussex Stakes winner Mohaather on his third outing - but it took former connections a long time to realise that stamina was his forte.
Figures tell you he improved almost a stone for the step up to a mile and a half last season, and there might still be some leeway in his current rating now that Williams is trying him over 2m. His only previous attempt at this trip came on debut for the yard, and he seemed to relish every step as he finished well for second. He filled the same berth on his most recent outing too, albeit that came over shorter and might well have been a prep for this.
Alfred Boucher now encounters a more galloping track (both recent starts around the tight-turning Chester), which should suit, and gets the assistance of leading rider William Buick, who has a 16% strike-rate and £1 level-stakes profit of +£55.20 on older horses for Williams in his career. Expect a good display off a workable mark.