Race In Focus: Tom Collins has two selections for the Ayr Gold Cup
By Tom Collins
Latest Ayr Gold Cup Odds16 September 2022
Punters are constantly told to look for Group horses in handicaps - it is considered to be the easiest and most prolific way of finding the winner in ultra-competitive contests.
There is nothing wrong with the logic, of course, as latent ability is the overwhelming factor in determining the winner of each race. But you have to take plenty on trust as the ‘Group horse’ assumption is based on what you expect a horse to be rather than what they currently are. Obviously anomalies do exist - those who are already proven at higher levels - but they are almost always too short in the market.
Khanjar, the favourite for this year’s Ayr Gold Cup, fits much of the criteria required for a lightly raced horse to be considered a potential Group performer. He is trained by one of the shrewdest and best trainers in the country in William Haggas; has won three of his six career starts, and is running off a mark (100) that is 5lb below his best RPR (105).
The way that Haggas campaigns his horses suggests there will be plenty more to come from this three-year-old, and you had to love the way he finished off his race last time out at Haydock. Generally, a horse with his profile would lack experience in big fields, but he has that too courtesy of a third-placed finish at Newmarket in July.
I don’t love his pedigree, but that’s almost inconsequential when it comes to this race. All things considered, Khanjar is undoubtedly the most likely winner and his low draw, which I would usually consider a negative in this race, might actually work in his favour. I’m not desperate to take him on - you might be able to tell - but I also don’t want to back him at relatively short odds in a 25-runner Ayr Gold Cup.
The loveable Summerghand, recent Stewards’ Cup winner Commanche Falls and last year’s winner of this race, Bielsa, have to be strongly considered. But it’s another veteran in Gulliver that has caught my attention.
David O’Meara’s eight-year-old has finished in the first three on 26 of his 72 career outings and has been a stalwart of this division for several seasons now. He doesn’t find winning easy, which is why you’re going to get a double-figure price, but he is more than capable of scoring at this level and his current mark of 98 remains 4lb lower than when he was last successful.
He has run in this race in each of the last three years and has finished third (2019), 11th (2020) and 13th (2021). Those results suggest he’s trending in the wrong direction, but he was too high in the handicap a couple of years back and wasn’t drawn well last year.
Gulliver has proved that he retains much of his ability in a couple of runs this term. And if those drawn high come to the fore - they did in the Bronze Cup on Friday - then he’s a live player.
There’s no conclusive evidence, based on Friday’s racing at Ayr, that you want to be drawn low, middle or high - though I’d rather back a horse that is likely to race near a rail. But there’s speed drawn on both flanks and therefore it’s wise to also have your money riding on a horse drawn low.
Fivethousandtoone was highly regarded early in his career and actually finished second in the 2020 Mill Reef on this day as a two-year-old, before taking seventh in the Group 1 Dewhurst to end his juvenile campaign.
Things haven’t gone right for him since with just one win from 12 subsequent starts, but that’s largely due to the fact that he’s been too high in the handicap and also raced with the choke out on each start.
We saw the real Fivethousandtoone last time at Goodwood, where he travelled beautifully and picked up course specialist Many A Star in the dying strides with consummate ease. That win will have done him the world of good and, under a 5lb penalty and into a big-field handicap, I expect him to build on that performance.
Bergerac, a reliable front-runner, is drawn in stall eight and should provide a strong pace for the likes of Fivethousandtoone and market leader Khanjar to run at over the far-side.