Race In Focus: Tom Collins fancies Yorkshire Oaks outsider and well-handicapped juvenile
By Tom Collins
Latest Horse Racing Odds17 August 2022
Three-year-olds have won seven of the last eight editions of the Yorkshire Oaks - the only anomaly being Enable, who romped home to justify short odds back in 2019.
Although that trend is noteworthy, it is hardly surprising. This Group 1 has long been considered the number one option for an Epsom or Curragh heroine to step up and tackle their elders. Trainers don’t like to veer too far from the manual when it comes to race-planning, especially those who have used this spot to good effect.
John Gosden and Aidan O’Brien have dominated this race since 2013, winning seven of the last nine renewals between them, and they usually have the choice of the top fillies from the Classic generation year-on-year.
You could argue that remains the case as just a nose split eventual winner Tuesday, trained by O’Brien, and Gosden’s Emily Upjohn in the Oaks two months ago, but subsequent efforts from both of those fillies have been rather underwhelming. Tuesday will follow the handbook and line-up here, but a recent setback for her talented foe means Gosden isn’t represented in this race for the first time since 2015.
Tuesday (navy): runs in Thursday's Yorkshire Oaks. Emily Upjohn (red) bypasses the event
Tuesday has class - there is no doubting that. You cannot win an Oaks, no matter if it’s a stellar year or not, without a sizable engine. However, this year’s Classic suited the speed horses and, when you combine that with Emily Upjohn’s mishap at the start, Tuesday was perhaps flattered by the result.
On the other hand, her subsequent effort in the Irish Derby was better than it seems on paper. It proved almost impossible to make ground up from the rear that day due to high wind, so she never had a realistic chance of winning, but, that said, she still didn’t finish her race off as powerfully as you’d like.
This is her last chance to prove to me that she is a proper mile-and-a-half filly. But, with that being the case, it’s too much of an unknown to weigh in with my hard-earned cash.
Talking of unknowns, how good is Magical Lagoon? After some deliberation, I have no idea. She has won the Ribblesdale and Irish Oaks on her most recent outings - two highly coveted prizes - but has beaten just a 108-rated rival into second on each occasion. Supporting her also requires a leap of faith as you’re gambling on potential rather than proven form at her current price.
This could be the year that an older horse strikes and, although I respect Alpinista and believe she deserves to head the market after six straight victories, I’m going to take a shot on Lilac Road.
On official figures she has to improve, but, not only is that already factored into her double-figure price, but there is a good possibility that it will happen. Lilac Road was ridden to force the pace early in her career, but the switch to more patient tactics saw a big upturn in fortune at Salisbury last August and she hasn’t looked back since.
Lilac Road posted new career-best efforts in the Group 3 Pride Stakes (October last year) and Group 2 Middleton (May this year), and ran a highly respectable race in the Nassau last time given it wasn’t run to suit. They crawled through the early stages and she wasn’t best positioned, yet still stuck on nicely for third behind the speedy Nashwa.
Lilac Road generally needs her first run after a break, so better is expected here, and it’s worth noting that she did all her best work at the finish, which gives hope that the step up to 1m4f will see her in better light. If the ground remains on the fast side of good (any slower than good and I’d be concerned) then she’s my idea of the value play.
Manifest a longshot winner
Unlike the majority of flat handicaps throughout the spring and summer, punters will be treated to big fields at the York Ebor Festival. One such example is the 7f two-year-old nursery (4.45) on Thursday, where an £80,000 prize pot has attracted a near-maximum field of 17 participants.
The head of the market is dominated by Newmarket raiders and Charlie Appleby’s Godolphin-owned pair, Courageous Knight and One Nation, look sure to be fancied despite carrying joint top-weight off identical marks of 93. The latter appears the strongest of the two and will undoubtedly relish the long straight on the Knavesmire with stamina rating his chief strength over this trip.
However, the form of his recent Newmarket win has been let down since (runner-up beaten at short odds) and there’s no guarantee that cheekpieces will work the oracle again. I want to look elsewhere, and Indian Dream, X J Rascal and Manifested all look worthy opponents.
Preference is for the latter, who is yet to lose his maiden tag after three starts but has caught the eye on each occasion and should relish an end-to-end gallop in this big-field handicap. Richard Hannon’s juvenile wasn’t streetwise enough to show his true ability on debut at Newmarket, but performed much better when fourth in one of the hottest maidens this season just 13 days later.
The winner, Nostrum, is being targeted at the Group 1 Dewhurst in October; runner-up Golden Speech has been awarded an opening mark of 90, while both the third (Arrest) and fifth (Batemans Boy) won on their next start.
Manifested failed to follow suit by finishing third on his only subsequent appearance at Ffos Las, but he didn’t seem in love with the downhill finish and perhaps bumped into a nice one in Lord Bertie, who holds a 2023 Derby entry.
As a result, Hannon’s charge has been given a mark of just 81 and should be able to take advantage sooner rather than later. Hopefully it will be in this race under SBK ambassador Sean Levey.