Race In Focus: Time to oppose Hungerford Stakes favourite Tiber Flow with consistent performer

Three-year-olds have won just two editions of the Hungerford Stakes since 2015. What links the winning pair? William Haggas trained both - and he’s back with Tiber Flow.

This son of Caravaggio began his career in an unorthodox manner with four starts on the all-weather, an inspired ploy that allowed him to develop before tackling more experienced and talented opponents. Tiber Flow is bred to thrive on turf and he made a winning introduction on the surface with a narrow victory over Ehraz in the Listed Carnarvon Stakes back in May.

His only subsequent start came in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot and, although he didn’t contest the finish that day, he ran respectably to finish eighth of 20 behind Perfect Power. Racing Post Ratings suggest he performed 6lb below his best, which is of slight concern given connections opted for first-time headgear to elicit further improvement.

Perfect Power (yellow): beat Tiber Flow by four-and-a-quarter lengths in the Commonwealth Cup

It may be that he just didn’t appreciate the fitting of blinkers that day, or that the wide expanse of Ascot combined with the tougher opposition caused him to falter, but I expected more from Tiber Flow over his preferred distance. He now enters the unknown of an extra furlong - a decision I don’t believe will pay off. 

It’s worth pointing out that Haggas used a very similar route with Adaay back in 2015. He won the Carnarvon Stakes, albeit more impressively than Tiber Flow, before finishing seventh in the Commonwealth Cup and bouncing back to win this prize after a layoff. The difference is that horse always gave the impression that the step up in trip would help, whereas the opposite applies to Tiber Flow.

I have to oppose him at relatively short odds and instead focus on the two solid options in the race - Pogo and Chindit - as this race lacks depth beyond the market protagonists. Both are seen to best effect when they’re ridden forward and they should dominate the early portion of this contest, with Pogo more likely to set the early fractions.

That should suit Chindit, who has been forced to create his own pace on his most recent outings but is arguably better with a lead. He doesn’t have to dictate matters - he just lacks the change of gear of some of his opponents and therefore a slow, tactical race works against him. Nevertheless, Chindit is an extremely high-class horse who never runs a bad race.

Indeed, he has performed to a mark of at least 110 on ten of his last 11 starts. Given the average winner of this race over the last decade has performed to around 116, a level he has achieved twice this season, it’s difficult to envisage a result where he doesn’t feature. 

His form figures may not be overly enticing, but it’s worth noting that he has faced Baaeed three times this campaign. There’s nothing of his quality in this heat.

Recommended bet

Chindit (3.35 Newbury) @ 5.6