Qipco 1,000 Guineas: French-trained filly catches Tom Collins' eye in Sunday's Classic

Inspiral’s eleventh hour withdrawal from the Qipco 1,000 Guineas has completely changed the complexion of the first fillies’ Classic of the year. 

Much like Native Trail in the colts’ equivalent yesterday, Inspiral would have entered this race as the overwhelming favourite following a faultless two-year-old campaign that saw her rack up four consecutive victories. Her campaign was capped off with an impressive strike in the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile over this course and distance, and she would have had far fewer questions to answer than the rest of her rivals.

Consequently, her absence has created an intriguing and dangerous conundrum for punters. Tenebrism might be the bait in this field - will you be drawn in or can you look elsewhere? An unbeaten Aidan O’Brien-trained favourite in a race that he has dominated in recent seasons can sometimes be difficult to overlook. 

I’m not questioning her ability - she is already top-rated in this field after just two starts! - but she has everything else to prove. She began her career in a soft ground maiden at Naas last March and smashed eight rivals by producing an eyecatching turn of foot in the closing stages to run out a decisive winner. 

Although she hit the line powerfully and could only beat what was in front of her, the form of that race has failed to live up to the hype with her eight rivals tallying just three victories from a combined 57 starts in the interim. The fact that she wasn’t overly strong in the market was interesting, too.

Tenebrism then went to Newmarket for the Group 1 Cheveley Park Stakes - a lofty target for a filly who had won a soft ground maiden 181 days prior and hadn’t been seen since. Again unfancied in the betting, Tenebrism was held up off a strong pace and looked in trouble with two furlongs to run, but her stunning turn of foot was put to good use close to home and she denied Flotus (beaten here yesterday) in the final few strides.

The 1,000 Guineas is a completely different test. Not only will she face better fillies, but she has to prove that she isn’t a sprinter. She seems to have adopted multiple traits from her sire Caravaggio, who was a six-furlong specialist, and it’s worth remembering that she was helped by racing against the favoured rail in the Fillies’ Mile - riding a bias can easily flatter a horse. There are too many question marks to back Tenebrism at short odds, in my opinion.

I would actually prefer to bet her stable companion, Tuesday, out of the two. Unlike Tenebrism, this daughter of Galileo is bred for the job (full-sister to 2016 winner Minding) and couldn’t have done much more than bolt up on her seasonal return. The booking of Frankie Dettori is a sign of intent and she has to be a major player if she handles the track.

However, I believe that we will see the first French-trained winner of this race since Miss France’s last-gasp success back in 2014. That filly’s trainer, Andre Fabre, is represented by Zellie, who has strong claims under Tom Marquand if she handles the quicker conditions at Newmarket. But she also has to reverse recent form with Malavath, and I’m not convinced that will happen.

A daughter of the precocious Mehmas, whose progeny have subsequently excelled on the track, Malavath is undoubtedly the most solid option in this year’s 1,000 Guineas. She was brought along slowly by trainer Francis-Henri Graffard last year but never finished outside the top three in five starts, which included a Group 2 victory in the Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte and a runner-up finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.

The latter was undoubtedly her best performance given she was drawn out in the carpark from gate 11 and missed a step at the start, which forced her to negotiate more traffic than ideal. Malavath flew home to be beaten a narrow margin by Pizza Bianca, who is considered one of the leading lights in this division in America, and crossed the line in front of fellow British challengers Cachet and Hello You, both of whom reoppose here.

It takes a special and agile filly to contend the finish over that mile trip on the tight-turning Del Mar turf track, so I have no questions that she will handle the undulations today at Newmarket.

She proved that she had trained on from two to three with a spectacular victory over seven furlongs on her return to action at Deauville earlier this month, and the step back up to a mile on quicker ground will only see her in better light. Christophe Soumillon was seen to great effect on the Rowley Mile yesterday and his good fortune is set to continue.

Recommended bet

Malavath (3.40 Newmarket) @ 7.6