Millar's Method: Your Punchestown Festival 2024 Bankers or Busts

The jumps action in Britain might be on a short hiatus but in Ireland its all systems go for the Punchestown Festival.

It can throw up the odd surprise result in 2016 Gods Own travelled over and delivered a shock defeat to Vautour in the Champion Chase and in 2021 Clan Des Obeaux beat Cheltenham Gold Cup victor Al Boum Photo in the Punchestown version. Then of course last year Fastorslow defeated Galopin Des Champs in an upset few saw coming.

I’ve taken a look at a few of the likely short-priced favourites, are they bankers or busts?

Tuesday

3.40 KPMG CHAMPION NOVICE HURDLE

Slade Steel @ 6/4

I felt it was stamina that got him home from Mystical Power in the Supreme at Cheltenham, where even though he lost momentum at the final hurdle he was able to find plenty for pressure up the Cheltenham hill, as such it would be reasonable to mark up the performance and he was probably value for more than the official winning margin of 1.5 lengths.

My concern for him here is whether he has the speed for this test on the better ground that has been forecasted. I’m sure if Ballyburn wasn’t in the equation then connections would have strongly considered the 2m4 race on Friday. There is a chance of showers on Monday afternoon, the more rain these deliver the better the chance Slade Steel has, however with Mystical Power, Tullyhill and Firefox offering strong opposition he might be found wanting on quicker ground.

Verdict – Bust

Wednesday

5.25 LADBROKES PUNCHESTOWN GOLD CUP

Galopin Des Champs @ 4/6

He was turned over at odds of 4/11 in this race last year by the re-opposing Fastorslow, and was then beaten again by that rival over 2m4f in the John Durkan Chase at the start of the year.

He does this year have the benefit of an extra week of recovery from his Cheltenham exertions and perhaps even more important is that his master trainer has proven time and time again that he is unequalled when it comes to tweaking training regimes to maximise the potential from every horse, whether he was over-trained or under-prepared last season, you can guarantee the same ‘mistake’ will not be made twice.

He did though have to work hard in the Gold Cup and while that form received a strong boost with Gerri Colombe winning at Aintree. I wouldn’t be keen to take a short price on him, he’s proven himself to be the best horse in the race and with a revised preparation this year he’ll take all the beating.

Fastorslow was a deserved winner of this race last year and will arrive fresh having got ridden of J J Slevin before reaching a crucial stage in the Gold Cup, he’s an obvious danger.

Hewick pounced late to land the King George at Christmas and will get his preferred ground conditions here having got stuck on soft ground at Aintree over hurdles. He might be an attractive each-way proposition but it’s hard to see him beating Galopin Des Champs.

Verdict - Banker

Thursday 

5.25 BARBERSTOWN CASTLE NOVICE CHASE 

GAELIC WARRIOR @ 1/3

I can keep this quite short and simple. He was a winning NAP for me on Wednesday at Cheltenham in the Arkle Chase where he demonstrated utter dominance over his rivals. On a right-handed track I would back him against ANY horse in training over ANY trip. In this he is simply un-opposable.

Verdict – Banker

6.00 LADBROKES CHAMPION STAYERS HURDLE

TEAHUPOO @ 10/11

Not a horse I’ve ever really been onside with, though a quick look at his record of 10/15 tells you that it’s been to my financial detriment.

He is though quite clearly ground-dependent with nine of his ten wins coming on ground that was either soft or slower, and was beaten as favourite in this race last year on good ground.

His latest start saw him produce a commanding winner of the Stayers Hurdle at Cheltenham when comfortably accounting for a number of rivals that re-oppose again. Even on better ground it’s hard to see them reversing the form so it falls on new rivals to turn him over. Stable mate, Irish Point, is unlikely to challenge here but if he were to do so I would be firmly in his camp. 

In his absence I could see plenty of appeal in Telmesomethinggirl at a double-figure price. She lost little in defeat behind Lossiemouth at Cheltenham and might well improve for a further step up in trip (she was far from disgraced when trying this trip as a free going novice behind Galopin Des Champs)

Verdict – Bust
Friday

6.00 CHAMPION HURDLE

STATEMAN @ 1/3

In all completed starts only Constitution Hill has beaten Stateman, and his enforced absence here following a colic attack leaves Stateman with a penalty kick in this grade one.

He was perhaps only workmanlike when adding a deserved Champion Hurdle to his CV at Cheltenham in March, and a deficit of just 1¼ lengths would give Irish Point fans a glimmer of hope. Yet it’s entirely feasible that he’s not quite at his best at Cheltenham and the ride Paul Townend delivered was one that focussed on beating just one horse, and consequently I think Irish Point was flattered to get so close. 

A return to Punchestown and a return to better ground will see him comfortably expand on the winning margin over Irish Point, and in fact I would prefer Bob Olinger as a selection if I were to play a forecast bet. He travelled well at Aintree and looks back to his best and will also enjoy this better ground.

Verdict - Banker 

6.35 CHAMPION NOVICE HURDLE

BALLYBURN @ 1/3

To my eye and I’m sure to plenty of others he was by some way visually the most impressive winner at the Cheltenham Festival where he didn’t need to come off the bridle to draw an easy 13 lengths clear. He travels powerfully, jumps soundly and despite racing with a low head carriage Paul Townend reports he is a straightforward ride.

That win followed on from two impressive victories at Leopardstown, including when dropped to two-miles. His only defeat came at Fairyhouse on his hurdling debut and it’s now blatantly obvious that he was not at his best when edged out by Firefox.

The absence of Caldwell Potter removes perhaps his biggest threat – though in truth I think he’d beat any novice hurdler over any trip. 

Those that don’t want to take short prices (I include myself in that bracket) might like to consider Jeriko Du Reponet. He was disappointing when pulled up in the Supreme at Cheltenham but the form of the Nicky Henderson yard at that time gives him a valid excuse. He travels well and jumps soundly and has as yet untapped potential, particularly up in trip on better ground. At 20/1 he appealed as the each-way angle.

Verdict – Banker

SATURDAY

3.40 MARES CHAMPION HURDLE

LOSSIEMOUTH @ 1/3

I wasn’t a big fan of this mare through her juvenile season. However, my attitude changed when I was fortunate enough to see her in the flesh ahead of the International Hurdle at Cheltenham. She had a surprising amount of strength and presence and duly won that race with minimal effort. Relaxing well and quickening up in the style of a high-class mare.

I had no concerns about the 2m4f trip for her in the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham and despite soft ground she proved she had ample stamina for that trip.

This better ground will only see her to better effect and I’m really expecting to see something visually impressive from her, she is a class apart from these rivals, I only hope we get to see her out of mares company next season.

Ashroe Diamond was a rare Willie Mullins disappointment at Cheltenham when pulling up behind Lossiemouth. Her rider Patrick Mullins reported she ran flat whilst her trainer reported she ran too freely (unpick that if you can) regardless it’s clear she didn’t run to her best form. She has plenty of form on better ground and would be my selection to fill the forecast position behind Lossiemouth.

Verdict - Banker 

Recommended Bets

Slade Steel - Bust
Galopin Des Champs - Banker
Gaelic Warrior - Banker
Teahupoo - Bust
Stateman - Banker
Ballyburn - Banker
Lossiemouth - Banker