Nunthorpe Stakes: 'Royal Aclaim might be the worst-priced horse running at York'
By Tom Collins
Latest Nunthorpe Stakes Odds18 August 2022
Royal Aclaim might be the worst-priced horse running at York’s Ebor Festival - a statement that shouldn’t be confused with ‘she cannot win’. It is a mere reflection on her odds.
Backing a horse based on your idea of their potential rather than proven form and figures comes with risks, especially when there is a list of unknowns attached to the individual in question. For all that Royal Aclaim sparkled last time out, she still has plenty to prove. That being the case, it’s supremely difficult to justify backing her at 3.1.
Not only does she come out joint-fifth-best on official ratings, but she’s also taking a huge step up from Listed level to Group 1 company in traditionally one of the best all-age sprints the UK has to offer. There might not be a superstar in this year’s edition, but this still rates her hardest task to date by some margin. Remember, she beat handicapper Mondammej and an out-of-sorts Winter Power when getting chunks of weight last time.
If she’s to justify cramped odds, Royal Aclaim will have to improve around another 10lb and I’m just not willing to take the risk at short odds. Another visually-spectacular display from James Tate’s filly would liven up this division, but even winning bets can be bad bets on occasion.
Her chief market rival is The Platinum Queen, who was supplemented for this race for £40,000 earlier this week. Richard Fahey’s runner has brazen speed and is already a course-and-distance winner, but she dominated from the front against rivals rated 80 and 86 last time and will face early pressure for the first time since she was stuffed at Royal Ascot.
With just 8st 2lb on her back she is an obvious player, and the presence of Hollie Doyle in the saddle can only be considered a positive, but even Wesley Ward’s Acapulco couldn’t beat her elders in this race back in 2015 and she was built more like a four-year-old than a two-year-old.
Royal Aclaim: James Tate's filly enters the Nunthorpe with an unblemished record
The speedy Highfield Princess and hat-trick-seeking Khaadem enter this race in fine fettle and shouldn’t be swiftly overlooked, but I’m going to take a chance on a gelding who needs to return to something like his best after a spell in the doldrums. Emaraaty Ana is the horse in question.
Kevin Ryan’s six-year-old hasn’t been seen at his best in four runs this year, but he returned an unsatisfactory scope on his first start at Meydan in the spring and didn’t seem to recover in time for his second Dubai outing just three weeks later. An 84-day layoff followed, which probably didn’t leave him anything like spot-on for the Group 1 Platinum Jubilee at Royal Ascot.
There were signs of life in the July Cup when last seen - he showed good early speed and was still in the vanguard as the field hit the rising ground - and even better is expected on his third start after a break.
I have a strong suspicion that Ryan penned in the Nunthorpe as the number one target for Emaraaty Ana this year. He ran a huge race in this 12 months ago when second at a massive price, and is clearly well-suited to a fast-run five furlongs given he has the stamina for further. Once the front-runners begin to flounder, he will find his best stride.
His draw in stall 11 is perfect - he’s situated close to Highfield Princess (14) and The Platinum Queen (13), so is sure to get a good tow into the race - and he is attractively-priced in a Nunthorpe field that lacks its usual depth.
Marshman set to strike in juvenile battle
This year’s renewal of the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes features three very promising colts, but Royal Scotsman is the solid option and deserves to head the market. After all, he has already proved that he is capable of winning at this level courtesy of his romp in the Richmond at Glorious Goodwood.
Paul and Oliver Cole’s two-year-old achieved a Racing Post Rating of 111 that day, which means very little improvement is required to win an average edition of the Gimcrack - the mean winning rating in this six-furlong sprint over the last 10 years is 112. But, is this just an average edition?
My feeling is that it’s not - and therefore Royal Scotsman might need to muster a clear career-best display. Perhaps he doesn’t have much improvement left in him after four starts, especially given he’s had a pretty tough season to date. There is no denying his talent or instant acceleration, but there might be a better value bet in this race.
Three of his rivals boast unblemished records - Clearpoint, Noble Style and Marshman. While the former needs to take a big step forward on ratings, the other two warrant serious consideration. Noble Style, a son of Kingman, beat a useful type last time up at Newmarket but showed signs of greenness when asked to quicken - a trait that might catch him out against better opposition. I don’t think he’s the most straightforward character, either, and therefore I’m happy to look elsewhere.
Consequently, I’m going to side with Karl Burke’s Marshman. This son of Harry Angel overcame inexperience and a lack of cover to win a relatively weak Ayr maiden first time up, before showing huge improvement to give 6lb and a eight-and-a-half-length beating to three well-touted sorts at Thirsk seven days ago.
This is very much a case of striking while the iron is hot with this two-year-old, a tactic that we’ve seen work well with Nick Bradley-owned juveniles in recent years. An RPR of 103 leaves him with around 8lb to find on Royal Scotsman, but further progression is highly probable and he seems to have the perfect mix of startling early pace and abundant stamina at the trip to relish York’s test.