Newmarket Tips: Group horse in a handicap has caught Tom Collins' attention

Newmarket punters who put added emphasis on recent trends will be looking forward to the 1m2f handicap as it has been a notable hunting ground for trainer Mark Johnston. 

The Middleham trainer has saddled six of the last nine winners of this race (1.50), all of whom were sent off between 13-2 and 25-1. This year Johnston, who now trains in partnership with his son Charlie, is represented by Knightswood, an improving three-year-old son of Decorated Knight who will have the benefit of Frankie Dettori’s presence in the saddle.

Dettori hasn’t ridden for the father-son combination this season, but he’s 10-55 (18%, +£17.55 to £1 level stakes) for Mark Johnston over the last five years and therefore this has to be considered a notable booking. Knightswood will need to take a sizeable step forward, but he’s likely to go off at a tasty price and shouldn’t be underestimated.

Although I will have a small financial interest on the aforementioned Johnston entry, I struggled to get away from Godolphin’s New London for win purposes. It’s key to remember that this horse topped the market for the Derby in early May this year, albeit for a short time, and now he’s running in a handicap having been seen on the track just once in the interim.

That performance was a backward step on ratings, but there are several reasons as to why he wasn’t able to take the predicted leap forward after a stunning seasonal reappearance victory on the Rowley Mile at Newmarket, a race in which he destroyed the now 101-rated Aldous Huxley and 108-rated Missed The Cut.

The first reason for his last-time-out defeat could be an inability to handle Chester. The sharp, left-handed circuit doesn’t suit every horse and he never really looked comfortable as the pace quickened on the turn-in. Perhaps connections believe that was the issue as they bypassed Epsom, which has a similar layout, last month.

Secondly, the Chester Vase attracted just four runners and the eventual winner Changingoftheguard was gifted a relatively easy and long lead from the outset. An inexperienced and raw New London was forced to do the donkey work by eroding the deficit with two furlongs to go and he had no answer when the Aidan O’Brien trainee kicked again. 

Changingoftheguard is no back number - he subsequently finished fifth in the Derby before striking in the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot - so perhaps New London’s effort was better than he was given credit for. He’s been off the track for 65 days and now returns off an extremely lenient mark of 99 if you believe that he’s a bona fide Group 1 middle-distance horse.

This homebred son of Dubawi is a full-brother to Al Dabaran, who broke his maiden for Godolphin and Charlie Appleby on the July course back in 2019, and although New London is yet to run on this course, there are few worries in that regard.

My other bet on Friday will be Celsius, who runs in the 0-90 sprint handicap (4.45 Newmarket) later on the card. Although this contest hasn’t attracted a maximum field, there are bundles of forward-going horses and they could set it up for a well-drawn closer. 

That’s where Celsius comes in. Tom Clover’s six-year-old, who perhaps hasn’t won as many races as he should have throughout his career, will relish the likely electric early gallop as it will allow him to settle and travel powerfully through his race without expending any energy.

He had become frustrating in 2020 and 2021 with 12 consecutive defeats, but that forced the handicapper to drop him from a mark of 91 to just 78. Celsius duly capitalised on his seasonal reappearance at Ascot this year despite not getting any cover in the race and he’s been hit with a mere 4lb rise. The straight track at the Berkshire course is one of the stiffest in the country and making near-enough every yard is extremely difficult to do, so I’m happy to mark him up for that display.

Stalk-and-pounce tactics are expected this time around and he has drawn beautifully in stall six based on what we saw on Thursday. Most of his victories have come off the back of a layoff, but he’s too attractive to ignore with this pace scenario. Fingers crossed he can string two good runs together.

Recommended bets

New London (1.50 Newmarket) @ 3.85
Celsius (4.45 Newmarket) @ 9