New Year’s Day Horse Racing Tips: Tom Collins looks to start 2023 with a bang

It wouldn’t be New Year’s Day without an ultra competitive card at Cheltenham, which is headlined by a 2m4½f handicap chase that features numerous improving types.

Nigel Twiston-Davies has farmed this race (1.55) over the last decade with four winners, but he is not represented this time around. Instead, Dan Skelton, who landed the first prize with Oldgrangewood in 2020, will look to rack up another success with likely market leader Midnight River.

This eight-year-old has been relatively lightly campaigned throughout his career (15 starts) and has produced back-to-back career-best efforts this year in his first season in open company over fences. He absolutely romped home on his seasonal reappearance at Stratford, before finishing a good third in the Paddy Power here at the November meeting.

Midnight River was given a patient ride by Harry Skelton that day and found himself picking off rivals as they came down the hill, but he was never in a position to challenge Ga Law for top spot. On the evidence of that performance, he must have a good chance of going two places better, but there is also a possibility that he was flattered by his finishing position.

Skelton avoided all of the early scrimmaging and also made the most of the better ground wide on the track. Meanwhile Il Ridoto, who finished one place behind him in fourth, scythed through the field to make his challenge coming into the straight and perhaps used up too much energy prior to the famous hill.

Midnight River only claimed Il Ridoto inside the final 100 yards and, given the latter made a clumsy mistake at the last on his first run back for 224 days, I fancy him to reverse the form for the in-form Paul Nicholls stable.

For listeners/watchers of the SBK Betting Podcast (please tune in if you haven’t already!), you will know that I put up Il Ridoto as my horse to follow this year with a view to backing him in big-field handicap chases at Cheltenham. My opinion hasn’t changed.

One other horse who caught my eye in that November handicap chase was Stolen Silver, who was sent off 4-1 favourite for Sam Thomas but looked to be coming under pressure when he unseated Sam Twiston-Davies at the third last fence. 

Stolen Silver is generally a brilliant jumper and was clearly unsighted at the trickiest obstacle on the course, so he can be forgiven for departing. The handicapper has left him off the same mark and, with a more aggressive ride this time, this course-and-distance winner can also play a part in the finish at slightly bigger odds.

Hollie Doyle back in England

The winner of 150 Great British races on turf and the all-weather in 2022, Hollie Doyle has spent most of the winter out in Japan with boyfriend Tom Marquand, but the pair have now returned to home soil and will look to instantly make their mark.

Doyle did just that at Lingfield on Saturday as she partnered Bobby On The Beat to victory, and she has six rides at Southwell on New Year’s Day to add to her tally. The best of those looks to be Mayfair Gold, who will bid to make it fifth-time lucky in the mile fillies’ handicap (2.16) that opens the card.

This filly has been set some pretty tough tasks to date. She wasn’t overly streetwise on debut and probably needed the run when seventh at Kempton, but that novice event has turned out to be pretty hot as eventual winner Laurel subsequently finished second in the Group 1 Sun Chariot, while four others have since entered the winner’s enclosure.

Mayfield Gold improved to fill the runner-up berth on her second start at the end of October behind a Godolphin-owned rival who is clearly highly regarded, before taking the same spot at Chelmsford over 1m2f. The only horse that beat her on that occasion was Capital Theory, who has won twice since.

I thought last time might have been the perfect spot for Mayfair Gold to break her duck as she entered handicap company off a mark of 66, but she was denied by half-a-length by an in-form David O’Meara trainee who was recording back-to-back successes. She showed guts and determination to burst through a gap to challenge, which ticked another box so early in her career, but just came up short.

Southwell might not be the ideal track for Mayfair Gold, but she’s just 1lb higher here against weaker opposition and has to be backed.

New Year’s Day Horse Racing Tips

Il Ridoto (1.55 Cheltenham) @ 6.4
Stolen Silver (1.55 Cheltenham) @ 9.2
Mayfair Gold (2.16 Southwell) @ 2.9