Millar's Method: Which trainers are hot ahead of the Cheltenham Festival

They say form is temporary and class is permanent, and of course that’s true, but as we head into the final seven days before the Cheltenham Festival, yard form is certainly a key factor in making your selections. The last few days have shown that twenty-four hours is a long time when dealing with racehorses so there is time yet for things to change but as it stands who’s in fine form and who is hoping for a change of fortune.

Who's Hot? (UK)

Lucinda Russell – after a quiet spell through the late part of December and into January she appears to have her team in fine order with a strike rate of 24%, that’s a strong percentage and it’s backed up by the fact that all bar eight of her last 30 runners have hit the frame. The winners have come at short prices but she’s had a number of bigger priced runners hit the frame. Those who fancy Apple’s Away, Giovinco, Ahoy Senor or Corach Rambler (for my money the best value bet in the Gold Cup) can have no concerns regarding yard form. 

Dan Skelton – while graded success at the festival has so far eluded him, there can be no doubt he is a dab hand at lining one up for a Cheltenham handicap. Plenty on my social media feeds are keen on the chances of Faivoir and Langer Dan as they bid to land handicaps two years on the bounce – surely a stiff task? Skelton himself was keen to talk up the chances of Calico in the Grand Annual but I wonder if this is a deft faint from a shrewd operator, I’d much prefer the chances of his other entry Unexpected Party at a general 20/1. I highlighted Le Milos for the Pertemps Final at 50/1 on a recent episode of Millar’s Movers and pleasingly he’s confirmed that is the target.  

A strike rate of 20% is hugely comforting for those that hold slips involving a Skelton runner, especially given he’s running plenty of horses this month.

Who's Hot? (Ireland)

Henry de Bromhead – quietly and consistently delivers Cheltenham Festival winners season upon season. He might be slightly shorter on quality this year with the retirement of both Honeysuckle and A Plus Tard but it would be a braver man than me to bet against him leaving Prestbury Park empty handed next Friday.

After a slow start to the season he has churned out winners at a consistent rate, his current strike rate of 17% is solid enough. He might lack a standout performer but Slade Steel, Monty’s Star and Tellmesomethinggirl have strong place chances in graded races and I have a good few of his on my shortlist for handicaps (be sure to watch The SBK Ultimate Preview Pod to find out who).

 Willie Mullins (below) – appears to have been in fine order since before Christmas but I’m not sure his win percentage has ever reached the ridiculous 46% that he currently sits at, it is quite simply staggering. 

The strength in depth he has at his disposal is well known, punters can have no concerns about the health of his raiding battalion, however making sure you have the right horse in the right race might cause you some anxiety, especially as the defection of Arkle favourite Marine Nationale might lead to some re-jigging of his novice chasers. But Willie, please I beg you don’t switch Lossiemouth away from the Mares Hurdle!

Who's Not? (UK) 

Harry Fry – is set to be represented by former Festival winner Love Envoi as well as exciting novice hurdler Gidleigh Park as well as a number of handicap chances. 

His penultimate runner was a winner, so it might seem strange to have him on the cold list, but that winner came seventeen-days ago and in that time he’s had just one runner, and that one pulled-up. It could be that he’s elected to freshen up the entire string but personally I’ll be waiting to see how his weekend runners fare before backing any of his at Cheltenham.

Nicky Henderson – much has been made of the relative poor form of the Seven Barrows team in recent weeks, a fact that was brought into the spotlight by the poor performance of Constitution Hill in his Kempton gallop, a poor scope followed and of course it stands to reason that he might not be the only one in the yard that’s been hit by a bug. The weekend brought a mixed bag of results, Spring Note won well at Newbury off an elevated handicap mark and whilst Jango Baie was a beaten favourite in the grade two novice hurdle at Kelso he did at least appear to run to the line. On the flipside Pentland Hills, Brave Jen and Governor Of India all failed to finish, meaning it’s now nine of his last sixteen runners that have the dreaded PU next to their name. 

I’m in the fortunate position that none of his Tuesday runners are on my shortlist but I’ll be watching closely as Doddiethegreat and Under Control are certainly of interest to me later in the week.

Who's Not? (Ireland)

Gordon Elliott – a strike rate of 11% is far from desperate but it is some way below his seasonal average of 17%. It should also be noted that although the win rate is down, the Cullentra House yard have sent out no fewer than ten runners-up in the last fortnight. That said at Cheltenham the smallest of margins matter. I fancy a few of his runners later in the week so I’ll be hoping for a positive showing from his runners on the opening day.