Millar’s Method: Prolific winner has been overlooked in the Welsh Grand National

If a short-priced play isn't your idea of a good bet, especially on a competitive day of racing, make sure you have a second look at Ross Millar's selections.

2.50 Chepstow, 3m6½f Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase

This is the showpiece of the Welsh racing calendar. I have received plenty of reports from friends and family in South Wales that rain has steadily fallen on the day of writing (Friday) and more is forecast over Christmas. That should ensure we get a typically tough race, where stamina and guts will win the day.

Quick Wave heads the market after posting a career-best effort last time at Sandown on her first try over a marathon trip. She will love soft ground, but this is significantly tougher and she has never defied a mark this high.

This year's renewal is being run in honour of Kim Gingell, the sister of Joe Tizzard, so there would be no more fitting winner than The Big Breakaway. His fluency continues to hinder him but this step up in trip will suit him well. If he is able to put in a more composed round of jumping, he is handicapped to go very close.

Pats Fancy has good course form but needs to bounce back following two lacklustre runs, as does Grumpy Charley, who is weighted to reverse the form from Newbury when the pair finished second and third behind Bravemansgame.

Listeners of the SBK Ultimate Preview Podcast, which was published at the start of the jumps season, will know that I tipped The Big Dog for this race. His win in the Troytown Chase was impressive; he will relish this trip and the testing ground, so the only thing not to like are his much reduced odds.

Another with outstanding credentials is The Galloping Bear - an ante-post selection for last year's renewal. He’s another who will love the attritional nature of this test, but he is also short enough in the betting and isn’t always the most fluent jumper. I wonder whether the decision to protect his mark by having a prep run over hurdles may prove to be an error.

The last one off my shortlist was Fortescue, who stayed on well in the closing stages of the Beacher Chase and will enjoy soft ground. He’s thoroughly consistent but, as a consequence, is continually climbing in the handicap and might not have much in hand.

Instead, I want to back Movethechains. He climbed from an opening mark of just 80 up to 128 by virtue of four effortless chase wins at Lingfield last season. The most impressive of these came on his last start when the ground was described as soft.

He won at a canter so, while an 11lb rise is hefty, he could still have plenty in hand off his current mark. He’s yet to run this season and, when he comes from a yard as shrewd as Gary Moore, there is a good chance that this prize has been his long-term aim.

Selection: Movethechains @ 24

1.05 Chepstow, 2m3½f Handicap Chase

I strongly fancied Fugitif for the abandoned December Gold Cup at Cheltenham, and hopefully he can gain compensation in this handicap chase.

He ran well on his seasonal reappearance over two miles at Cheltenham, where he rallied up the hill to finish just over a length behind Amarillo Sky, who has subsequently won again and is now rated 151. That performance suggests he is certainly better than his current mark of 133.

Soft ground and a step up in trip can see him to better effect, and I will be disappointed if he couldn’t go very close for an in-form yard.

Selection: Fugitif @ 6.4

December 27 Chepstow Tips

Movethechains (2.50 Chepstow) @ 24
Fugitif (1.05 Chepstow) @ 6.4