Millar's Method: Time for a Tipple if Mums proves successful at Newmarket

If a short-priced play isn't your idea of a good bet, especially on a competitive day of racing, make sure you have a second look at Ross Millar's selections.

2.10 Newmarket, 1m6f handicap

The John and Thady Gosden-trained Atlantis will be sent off a short-priced favourite in this staying handicap given she is well suited by the conditions of the race.

However, she’s done very little to impress me. There is no doubt that she was a cosy winner at Doncaster last time, but the bare form doesn’t amount to much. Runner-up Cathayenis was conceding 5lb and has an official rating of just 78, while the third-placed Noonie is rated just 72. She may well improve for this step up in trip, but she’s not for me at prohibitive odds.

I much prefer James Fanshawe’s representative, Rozalia. Since being switched from the all-weather to the turf she has looked progressive, and recorded wins at Lingfield and Goodwood off marks of 70 and 74 respectively. 

Her winning streak came to an end at Chester last time, but I’m not convinced it was her new career-high mark of 78 that caused the problem. She travelled sweetly through the race and looked certain to play a big part in the finish before suffering a typical Roodee hard-luck story. She was trapped in a pocket as the pace quickened and couldn’t challenge thereafter.

This new trip is an unknown, but her half-brother Higher Power won the Northumberland Plate over 2m, while her sire, Sir Percy, consistently produces stout, staying types. Against a vulnerable favourite, I’m hopeful she can regain the winning thread.

Selection: Rozalia @ 9

3.53 Newmarket, 7f nursery handicap

Karl Burke is enjoying another fine season, especially with his team of two-year olds that is spearheaded by Dramatised, who heads to York for next week's Lowther.

Miss Jungle Cat, while not in that league, has shown a good level of ability and is already a winner of two of her five starts.

Her fifth-placed finish at Goodwood last time can be upgraded - she had an unfavourably wide draw and was never able to get a decent position to challenge, and it’s to her credit that she delivered some strong late work to ultimately go down by a length. 

Miss Jungle Cat saw out the trip out well and shouldn’t suffer any traffic problems in this smaller field. She should prove very hard to beat.

Selection: Miss Jungle Cat @ 3

4.28 Newmarket, 6f handicap

It’s nearly three years ago that Mums Tipple produced a breathtaking performance to win the Goffs Premier Yearling Stakes at York by 11 lengths. Seven-figure offers were reportedly turned down in the aftermath, which looks a bad call from connections in hindsight.

Mums Tipple has just one win to his name since, which came nearly 18 months ago, amidst a bunch of lacklustre displays. However, his last two starts at Newmarket and a recent Goodwood spin have hinted at a return to some level of form.

The performance of most interest came at Newmarket on July 8. He travelled exuberantly, as per usual, but floundered in the closing stages and finished a length-and-a-quarter back in third. 

His keenness in the early stages has looked to compromise his finishing effort - though it would be remiss of me to point out that he could now just be a tame finisher - and, if that’s the case, this drop back in trip might just prove to be the key. He’s by no means a reliable selection but this could be the time to catch him.

Selection: Mums Tipple @ 3.75

Recommended bets

Rozalia (2.10 Newmarket) @ 9
Miss Jungle Cat (3.53 Newmarket) @ 3
Mums Tipple (4.28 Newmarket) @ 3.75