Millar's Method: Take a chance on promising maiden in competitive Mill Reef

If a short-priced play isn't your idea of a good bet, especially on a competitive day of racing, make sure you have a second look at Ross Millar's selections.

2.50 Newbury - 6f Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes

I’m keen to oppose the two at the head of the market in this year’s Mill Reef. I’ve had some success following Shouldvebeenaring since his eyecatching debut and he has the advantage of experience and recent winning form. 

But, despite being successful in Listed company last time, winning this contest requires another step forward and, at the current prices, I can happily look elsewhere. 

Sakheer is harder to assess given he has just two runs to his name. He shed his maiden tag in impressive style last time with a wide-margin victory at Haydock, but the third-placed Kitbag is rated just 77 and that gives me enough confidence to take him on. 

It’s a brave piece of placing by Richard Hannon to let the once-raced maiden Wallop run in a Group 2 on just his second start. That said his debut was very promising indeed - he weakened late to finish a close third behind Noble Style, who has since boosted the form by bolting up in the Gimcrack. Mill Stream, who finished second, also posted a good effort at York in Acomb when fourth over a trip he didn’t appear to relish.

Without exception, Richard Hannon’s juveniles have improved from their first run to their second this year and, if Wallop follows that trend, he’s more than capable of landing this prize at a decent price.

Selection: Wallop @ 13

4.26 Newmarket - 1m2f fillies’ handicap

Suzy’s Shoes is the subject of a fairly unusual piece of handicapping. She won a Newbury maiden by five-and-a-half lengths when she was rated 75 and was upped a perfectly reasonable 4lb to 79 as a result. However, after just one moderate run since, she is almost back to where she started. Such leniency after just one start is unusual.

Her poor effort came at Goodwood, a course famed for its unique cambers and more than a few horses have failed to perform there. Suzy’s Shoes’ profile suggests she just doesn’t appreciate the undulations and she’s now run below-par on three of her four outings there.

She first caught my eye when third in a Newbury maiden on her seasonal return this year - she raced a bit too keenly in the early parts of the race, yet stuck to her task dourly in the closing stages. 

The form of that race has worked out particularly well; the winner Life Of Dreams is now rated 100, while the two who finished just behind her - Discretion and Atlantis - boast marks of 83 and 88 respectively.

Georgia Dobie claims a valuable 3lb, which means Suzy’s Shoes effectively runs off just 73. Her Newbury win was emphatic and, if she reproduces that effort, she is well capable of causing a shock.

Selection: Suzy’s Shoes @ 12

Recommended bets

Wallop (2.50 Newbury) @ 13
Suzy’s Shoes (4.26 Newmarket) @ 12