Millar's Method: Emily Upjohn's defection opens the door for well-bred filly in the Irish Oaks

The 2022 Irish Oaks looked to be at the mercy of Emily Upjohn, but Friday’s shock news that the Epsom runner-up misses the Classic throws a spanner in the works.

That now leaves Jessica Harrington’s Magical Lagoon sitting at the top of the market and there is no doubt that she is improving at a rapid rate, both with experience and since she’s been sent over middle-distance trips. 

I felt that her winning performance in the Ribblesdale Stakes at Royal Ascot could be upgraded as she was the first to commit to chasing runaway leader Mystic Wells, which meant that she raced in a moderately inefficient manner. She showed tremendous resilience, as befits her Galileo parentage, to rally back against Sea Silk Road, who headed her and was given a more patient ride.

Emily Upjohn (red) and Tuesday (navy): Epsom one-two both miss the 2022 Irish Oaks

I’m sure there is more to come from Magical Lagoon if she is ridden more efficiently and she has upwards of 4lb in hand on official ratings. However, with the late withdrawal of Emily Upjohn and the fact that Magical Lagoon is yet to meet the standard of an average Irish Oaks winner, she can’t be given as a selection at short odds.

Elsewhere in the field, Aidan O’Brien relies on Emily Dickinson, Toy and History to deliver him his seventh win in the Irish Oaks after electing to not declare Epsom winner Tuesday, who will now have a short mid-season break.

It was slightly surprising to see Ryan Moore pick Toy from the three Ballydoyle entrants as she has disappointed on her last two starts in France and is yet to tackle this trip. A full sister to crack miler Gleneagles and Marvellous, who herself appeared to fail to stay this distance when disappointing in both the English and Irish Oaks, there must be some doubt as to whether the extra two furlongs she tackles on Saturday will see her bounce back to form, though of course Ryan Moore will certainly have solid reasons for having picked her.

However, I’m prepared to take a chance on this being one of the rare occasions when Moore gets it wrong and will side with another daughter of Galileo in the shape of History. 

She has already tried this trip once - she finished third behind Magical Lagoon in the Ribblesdale and will have to reverse that form to score here. However, that run was her first attempt over further than a mile and that was certainly evident in the race itself as she over exerted herself in the earlier stages.

However, History stuck to her task well and left me believing that there are no real concerns about stamina over this distance. If, off the back of that experience, she can race in a more relaxed manner in the early stages then I see no reason why she can’t get much closer to Magical Lagoon this time. In a poor edition of the Irish Oaks, she appears to be the value selection.

Recommended bet

History (3.45 Curragh) @ 9.4