Millar's Method: Who will claim Grand National glory at Aintree?
By Ross Millar
Latest Grand National Odds10 April 2024
The SP of the last ten Grand National winners covers a huge spread. Tiger Roll proved in 2019 that short-priced favourites could oblige in the National when he won at 4/1. Equally at the other end of the spectrum both Noble Yeats (50/1 in 2022) and Rule The World (33/1 in 2016) showed that the winner can come from anywhere in the market.
I’ve divided the market into six sections, ranging from those at the head of the market to those long priced “no hopers” and have a suggestion of a horse you might like to consider and one that you should ignore in each price bracket.
14/1 or shorter
Mr Incredible @ 13/1
He’s certainly a horse that divides opinion and there can be no denying he’s certainly not a straightforward individual. He has previously refused to race when with Henry De Bromhead and in last years Kim Muir at Cheltenham he didn’t have his mind fully focussed on racing.
But this unique test can often suit a horse such as him and that appeared to be the case last year when he travelled sweetly and jumped accurately before Brian Hayes was unseated at the Canal Turn when his saddle slipped.
His only run since then was a highly creditable effort when second under top weight in the Midlands National last month.
The 28-day turnaround is a mild concern but I’m very keen to have him onside.
Vanilier @ 21/2
Finished strongly into second place in last year’s edition of this race. He does get a healthy 9lb pull at the weights with Corach Rambler for just an official distance of 2 1⁄4 lengths, but I’m convinced Corach Rambler was idling late on and was the vastly superior horse on the day.
A bigger concern is the jumping frailties of Vanilier, he made a number of errors last year and has often been a less than fluent jumper. Footage of him loose jumping was posted on social media over the weekend, but my view was that he showed a tendency to not get his hocks fully underneath him. I can comfortably oppose him even with his potentially lenient mark.
15/1 to 29/1
Nassalam @ 20/1
The rain continues to fall and the likelihood of the ground being heavy on the National course now seems a strong possibility.
Nassalam thrives in such conditions, as he showed when destroying the field in the Welsh National at Chepstow in December. His 16lb rise in the weights is clearly going to demand more but perhaps more relevant will be the fact that the 11st7lb he carries here is just 4lb more than he carried at Chepstow.
He has experience of the track when finishing strongly into fourth in this season's Grand Sefton – over an inadequate 2m5f, and will strip fitter after his run in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham.
He’s simply the most proven horse on these ground conditions and I expect him to go very close granted luck in running.
Galia Des Liteaux @ 27/1
I must be missing something? Dan Skelton’s mare has been well supported in the last ten days. Yet she has just one win to her name this season - when odds on at Market Rasen, and has twice been beaten when a short priced favourite.
She did run well when runner-up in the Classic Chase at Warwick but doesn’t always convince with the fluidity of her jumping, and I wonder if she’s got the attitude for this substantial test.
30/1 to 47/1
Adamantly Chosen @ 47/1
A low weight might well prove to be a key factor on such heavy ground. With just 10st8 on his back I can see the appeal of Adamantly Chosen. He looked a revelation on his latest start at Down Royal over 3m2f. He travelled nicely and jumped with real composure and powered away from the field to win by a comfortable fourteen lengths.
That win came after the National weights were framed so he’s now 2lb well in off a mark of 148 having been raised to 150 for that win.
This trip is unknown territory but he certainly wasn’t stopping at the line last time and he has plenty of form on soft and heavy ground.
It would be no surprise to see him in contention in the closing stages.
Capodanno @ 37/1
One of a plethora of runners for owner, J P McManus, and trainer, Willie Mullins.
He looked a non-stayer when pulling up in this race last year off a mark of 160 on good-soft ground that suits him best. It’s therefore hard to fathom how he’ll fare any better this year off a mark of 161, on heavy ground and with a busier season behind him.
48/1 to 78/1
Mac Tottie @ 69/1
Peter Bowen has an excellent record over these fences and so too does Mac Tottie. He completed the rare double of The Grand Sefton and The Topham two seasons ago.
He again showed his liking for Aintree when winning a veterans' chase on his return from a 430-day lay-off. Two runs since then have been sub-par but his yard has been out of form.
His stamina is hard to assess but he does have winning form over three miles on a better surface. The ground isn’t an issue as he’s won on soft before.
If you believe in “horses for courses” then he must be on your shortlist.
The Goffer @ 59/1
He has a nice racing weight but is yet to win beyond 2m6f and has twice looked like a thorough non-stayer in the Ultima Chase at Cheltenham. I’m sure his connections will enjoy their day out but he should be 59/1 to complete the race, let alone win.
79/1 to 140/1
Stattler @ 79/1
We’re starting to get into the slightly more tenuous selections now. Stattler’s recent form figures certainly don’t inspire confidence, including when not taking to the banks at Punchestown last time.
However, he has form on soft and heavy ground, he stayed well when landing the 2022 National Hunt Chase over 3m6f and just fourteen months ago he finished just ten-lengths behind dual Gold Cup winner, Galopin Des Champs at Leopardstown in the Irish Gold Cup.
If these fences spark him back to life he could well outrun his odds.
Eklat De Rire @ 129/1
Has some excellent back class chase form on heavy ground at Punchestown, Navan and most notably at Wexford where he beat Conflated so you could argue that he’s well handicapped off just 146. However, his form has fallen off a cliff since pulling up in 2021 Hennessy and his latest run in the Ultima at Cheltenham saw him pull-up once again. He’s impossible to fancy.
130/1 or bigger
Run Wild Fred @ 179/1
Was sent off at just 8/1 for the 2022 edition of this race but got no further than the Canal Turn the first time around. He then backed that up when again falling in the Irish National, jumping is most certainly his Achilles heel. On heavy ground the pace of the race will be distinctly slower, if this were to allow Run Wild Fred to post an adequate jumping performance maybe, just maybe he could spring a surprise.
Janadil @ 209/1
Has never won beyond 2m4f and has repeatedly looked a non-stayer over trips of three-miles, I struggle to see why he’s lining up in this dour test.