Kentucky Derby 2023 Tips: Tom Collins has two picks in this year’s “Run for the Roses”

America will crown its champion three-year-old colt on Saturday as Churchill Downs plays host to the 149th edition of the Kentucky Derby, the first leg of the 2023 Triple Crown. 

This is no ordinary Grade 1 contest - a purse of $3million and the media buzz tells you that. The KY Derby is the one race that every trainer, jockey and owner wants to win. As a result, a huge field of 20 colts will battle it out for the esteemed prize and look to emulate the likes of Secretariat, Affirmed, Street Sense, California Chrome, American Pharaoh and Justify, whose names are cemented into the history books. 

Recent editions of this fantastic event have been overshadowed by controversial sub-plots. Maximum Security passed the post in front back in 2019 only to be disqualified for causing interference on the home turn, while Medina Spirit was stripped of his title two years later after testing positive for a banned substance. Hopefully this year’s edition is drama free!

The scheduled post time for the “Run for the Roses” is 11.57pm on Saturday, May 6. Churchill Downs are expected to receive some notable showers on Friday, so keep an eye on conditions. Three of the last six editions have been run on either a sloppy or wet track and we can’t write off that possibility just yet. Before I give my verdict and run through some of the market protagonists, let’s discuss the draw and trials.

Where do you want to be drawn?

Connections of each runner in the 20-horse field sat down at Monday’s post position draw knowing that their Derby could be over well before it starts.

Races run over this mile-and-a-quarter trip at Churchill Downs begin on the hometurn, which creates a near three-furlong run to the first bend. Normally that would provide significant ground for every runner to ascertain their early position without scrimmaging or interference, however, that’s not the case in a well-run and highly competitive contest like this. 

A race-high ten winners have broken from gate five in the KY Derby - the most recent of which was Always Dreaming in 2017 - and second favourite Tapit Trice will break from that post this time around. You can also put a tick next to gates eight and ten, which have recorded nine wins apiece and will situate Mage and Practical Move this year.

In recent times, wider draws have proved to be an advantage with Authentic (2020) winning from stall 15, Country House (2019) victorious from 18 and Rich Strike (2022) successful from gate 20. The anomaly is post 17 - no horse has ever won (0-43) from this berth, and Japanese challenger Derma Sotogake has been lumbered with it this time around. 

The inside gates are more of an inconvenience. As the outside runners angle across, those towards the fence can find themselves in tricky positions and, in some cases, forced to shuffle back in the pack. You have to go back to 1986 for the last winner from stall one, 1978 from ‘death box’ two, and 1998 for gate three. Hit Show, Verifying and Two Phil’s need to buck strong trends to win this year.

What are the best and worst trials?

The ‘Road to the Kentucky Derby’ series, which featured 37 different races, allowed horses to earn points and a potential place in the field for Saturday’s main event. 

A total of 99 three-year-olds earned points, but a significant number of those have chosen to bypass the event, picked up an injury in the build-up, weren’t nominated or failed to rack up enough to get into the top 20. Forte tops the bill with 190 points, while Skinner scraped in at the bottom with 45.

A large chunk of Forte’s haul came from the Florida Derby, which has proved to be an excellent trial for Kentucky’s equivalent. Barbaro (2006), Big Brown (2008), Orb (2013), Nyquist (2016) and Always Dreaming (2017) have all completed the double in the last 20 years, while the aforementioned Maximum Security (2019) would have enhanced that list had he not been DQ’d.

There has been similar success from west coast runners, largely those who plundered the Santa Anita Derby on the way. Tim Yakteen’s Practical Move will look to add his name to a list that includes I’ll Have Another (2012), California Chrome (2014) and Justify (2018).

Two trials that haven’t paid their way in modern times are the Blue Grass and the Wood Memorial. The former, which was won by Tapit Trice this season, hasn’t spring-boarded a horse to Kentucky Derby glory since Strike The Gold completed the double in 1991, while Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) was the last horse to complete the Wood/Derby double. I doubt 30/1 shot Lord Miles will stop that drought!

Who should be on your shortlist?

US racing is all about speed and positioning, but the lack of bona fide front-runners in this year’s Kentucky Derby presents more questions than answers. 

The 2022 field burned through an opening quarter in 21.78s - that’s fast for sprinters! - and clocked 45.36s for the half-mile. Unsurprisingly we saw a complete meltdown on the front which allowed Rich Strike, who was last early, to pick up the pieces and cause a huge shock. I’m sure that renewal will be in the back of riders’ minds on Saturday and I doubt they will go sub 46-seconds through the same point.

Verifying, Confidence Game, Reincarnate, Jace’s Road, Derma Sotogake and Continuar have all shown speed in their recent starts and a clear lead for any of those would make them dangerous in this field. However, it’s the second group of horses - the drop-in runners - who look most likely to benefit from the pace scenario.

That brings into play Forte, who I have been strong on since the end of February. His performances in the Fountain Of Youth and Florida Derby down at Gulfstream are unmatched and there’s no-one better in the business at keeping horses sound and improving over middle distances than trainer Todd Pletcher.

If you’re wondering what his form is worth: he has the beating of Rocket Can and Mage this season, while he stuffed Verifying and Two Phil’s during his two-year-old campaign. We also know that he doesn’t get overwhelmed or bothered by large crowds given his success in the 2022 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Forte has drawn gate 15, which I don’t mind at all, and he has all the credentials to get the job done under Irad Ortiz. His figures hit the brief, he has tactical and closing speed, should get a clear trip and will relish the extra distance. I backed him ante-post at 6/1 in early March, but I’m happy enough to go in again at around 7/2 or 3/1 near the off. 

I’m also on Tapit Trice at 16/1 in the ante-post markets, though I’m slightly cool on him now. He has the ability to win - there is no doubt in my mind about that - but his consistent slow starts have put me off a touch, especially now that he has drawn inside in stall five. Perhaps his talent propels him to the top, but I won’t be going in again.

Derma Sotogake is interesting if they adopt aggressive tactics from a wide stall. The UAE Derby winner will be ridden by experienced pilot Christophe Lemaire and boasts pace at both ends of his races, but he will be well-found in the market due to considerable Japanese success on a global scale over the last 18 months and still has questions to answer.

West coast challenger Practical Move has had dream trips on his last three outings and I don’t think he’s as good as billed, while Verifying’s inside draw quells enthusiasm. Consequently, my only other bet in the race will be Brad Cox’s Pennsylvania-bred Angel Of Empire, who is the mount of Flavien Prat.

This deep-closing colt has plundered the Risen Star and Arkansas Derby on his last two starts and seems to be coming to hand at the ideal time. Another step up would put him bang in the firing line and these connections are extremely familiar with success. He will be staying on powerfully down the centre of the track late and could prove the biggest threat to Forte if the pace is hot.

Kentucky Derby 2023 Tips

Forte (11.57 Churchill Downs, Saturday) @ 3/1 and 6/1 ante-post
Angel Of Empire (11.57 Churchill Downs, Saturday) @ 9/1