Irish 2,000 Guineas: Tom Collins has an each-way play in Native Trail's Classic

Charlie Appleby’s stranglehold on the three-year-old colts division looks set to continue if the Irish 2,000 Guineas market is correct. 

Native Trail, whose unbeaten record came to an end when he finished a highly creditable second to stablemate Coroebus at Newmarket last month, is set to go off at prohibitive odds (1.4) at the Curragh on Saturday as he tackles a group of largely inferior rivals according to official figures.

The son of Oasis Dream was crowned Cartier Champion Two-Year-Old Colt after a spotless juvenile campaign that saw him record four successes, two of which came at Group 1 level. His effortless reappearance victory in the Craven proved that he had trained on from two to three and there was little to put punters off Appleby’s sizeable colt after his Qipco 2,000 Guineas performance, especially given how the race panned out.

Drawn in stall 15, Native Trail was dropped into mid division by rider William Buick and tracked the keen-going Dubawi Legend throughout the first portion of the mile event. That rival began to weaken as soon as the pace lifted and left Native Trail without cover over two furlongs out, yet he still forged to the front and only succumbed to Coroebus, who had a much better trip, inside the closing stages.

A Racing Post Rating of 121 for that performance was just 1lb short of his best and a repeat display would see him win this event unless one of his rivals takes a monumental step forward, which doesn’t look likely. In fact, the average RPR recorded by Irish 2,000 Guineas winners over the last ten years is 120.6. Native Trail has already proved that he’s capable of that on three occasions.

With Native Trail seeming by far the most likely winner, the value lies in the place market and the colt that sticks out is Duke De Sessa. The Dermot Weld-trained son of Lope De Vega has been targeted at this race since he plundered the Group 3 Eyrefield Stakes in October last year - 1m1f looked ideal for him that day but his instant acceleration should make him a player at this shorter trip.

His two runs this season have produced a mixed bag of results. Duke De Sessa showed up nicely for a long way behind Derby hopeful Piz Badile and the reopposing Buckaroo in the Ballysax on his seasonal reappearance, but he disappointed more recently at Leopardstown behind another Classic contender in Stone Age.

Perhaps you can put a line through his Derby Trial run given he was poorly positioned in a race that was dominated by those who raced prominently, while a mile and a quarter might stretch his stamina. Nevertheless, connections probably expected better.

I strongly believe that the drop back to a mile will see him in better light - his turn of foot is his main asset and he should be able to exploit it here - and Duke De Sessa can hit the frame and reward place backers. Whether he will get near Native Trail is a completely different matter.

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Duke De Sessa to place