Horse Racing Betting Tips: Japan set to triumph at Longchamp

We might be in the latter part of the flat season, but there is some exceptional racing across the globe this weekend with Group/Grade 1 action from Newmarket, Longchamp, Keeneland and Belmont At The Big A amongst others.

This column will primarily focus on Saturday’s English action, as per usual, but I will dip into the Group 1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at the end as it’s too good to ignore! Maybe Japan will finally get a winner of the race…

Balding filly set to shine on Rowley Mile

Let’s begin with Saturday’s domestic feature, which is the Group 1 Sun Chariot Stakes (14:40 Newmarket). This mile contest, which is part of the British Champions Series, features an interesting bunch of three-year-olds and older fillies. The Classic generation has won five of the last eight renewals of this event, but Inspiral put one on the board for the elders last year.

She’s back in an attempt to retain her crown and will be ridden by Rab Havlin, who gets on board for the first time since her debut. Inspiral is a tricky horse to assess - when she’s at her best she seems untouchable against her own sex, but she’s hasn’t been at that level for a while now and it’s hard to keep making excuses for her.

John and Thady Gosden have had a difficult end to the flat season (0/21 over the last two weeks prior to racing on Thursday evening) and they will hope one of their stablestars goes out on a high. Inspiral may well do that, but I just don’t trust her enough to back her.



The same could apply to Nashwa, who also runs for the Gosden team. She hasn’t won a race since July last year, so there’s a long drought for her to overcome, and we have only seen her on the track once this year. The drying ground won’t be ideal and, although she boasts a lot of class, she can’t really be seen as a punting proposition unless she drifts.

I much prefer the three-year-olds in here and Tamfana is the obvious one. I tipped her last time at Sandown where she beat an inferior group and now she steps up in grade. She deserves a crack at a prize like this and I wouldn’t be surprised if she got the job done, but she’s 5/2 favourite at the time of writing and that feels a little skinny given what she's achieved.

Therefore I ended up coming down on See The Fire, who is on a stiff upward trajectory after her breakthrough win at York last time. I thought it was mightily impressive the way that she weaved through traffic that day - a tactic that may help in this small and tactical kind of race. She finished behind both Opera Singer and City Of Troy earlier this year and she doesn’t have much to find on figures, so she’s worth a few quid.

Further progress expected

Earlier on the Newmarket card, keep an eye out for the William Haggas-trained Min Huna, who should go off favourite in the 1m2f fillies’ handicap (1.30). This slow-burning daughter of Dubawi took a massive jump forward in her progression when she won a Windsor maiden in July and improved on that when successful at Sandown the following month.

This 1m2f trip seems to be the perfect distance for her at this stage of her development and I have no concerns about the ground, no matter if it stayed on the soft side or rode as good. She has an 8lb rise in the weights to deal with but Haggas excels with end-of-season three-year-olds like this and hopefully she can start Saturday on the right note.

Marianglas can go in again

My other Saturday bet comes on the evening card at Southwell, where I fancy Marianglas to back up her recent Newcastle strike in the 7f fillies’ handicap (17:15).

Ed Bethell’s filly showed little on her first five outings despite regularly taking money, only to improve a great deal once blinkers were applied on her penultimate outing. Unfortunately she suffered a wide trip on that occasion at Wolverhampton - something you really don’t want at that venue - and she wasn’t able to get involved at the business end, but her late inroads under minimal urgings were notable.

Marianglas much preferred the straight track at Newcastle last time and the final 100 yards were her best, where she powered clear of her opposition. Southwell seems to be the happy medium when it comes to track topography and a 5lb rise hopefully shouldn’t stop her following up under PJ McDonald.

Japan can finally conquer Paris

If you’ve made it this far down the column then you’ve got to the good stuff as we’re onto the Arc (15:20 Longchamp, Sunday). I have no issue with those who decide to back the French-trained three-year-olds at the top of the market as they probably deserve to be there, but neither Sosie nor Look De Vega have wowed me enough to play them at a short-ish price. 

Los Angeles is a very good three-year-old, too, but he doesn’t seem to do much when he’s in front and that would be a minor concern for me in a race like the Arc. Instead, I prefer the Japanese raider, Shin Emperor, who was a major eye-catcher in Ireland last time after finding trouble in running.

He should be ground versatile, he stays this trip well, and he is used to big fields having competed in the Japanese 2000 Guineas and Derby. His preparation seems to have gone swimmingly and I like his middle draw in stall 11. Hopefully the Emperor can pick up the crown in France’s big race!

Recommended Bets

Back Min Huna (13:30 Newmarket) @ 7/2
Back See The Fire (14:40 Newmarket) @ 9/2
Back Marianglas (17:15 Southwell) 
Back Shin Emperor (15:20 Longchamp, Sunday) @ 6/1