Handicap Verdict: Williams pair remain of interest after sumptuous Saturday strikes

Noticing when a handicap mark is harsh or lenient can be the difference between finding winners and losers. 

New ratings get announced every Tuesday morning for horses that have run within the last seven days, and being sharp to analyse the latest moves can prove extremely profitable. Our expert Ross Millar assesses this week's most interesting amendments.

GOING UP

Just two horses caught my eye after receiving a rise in the weights this week and they both hail from the yard of the Welsh Wizard, Christian Williams.

The first is Win My Wings, who looked the most likely winner throughout the Eider Chase at Newcastle on Saturday and duly crossed the line in front by a length and three-quarters. Her jockey, the excellent Ryan Mania, perfectly positioned her for the entirety of the 4m1½f contest and she jumped in a beautiful rhythm.

The application of first-time cheekpieces seemingly achieved exactly what was intended. Win My Wings shot clear of the field after jumping the third-last fence and virtually had the race won at that point. She appeared to do the bare minimum once she hit the front and was value for greater than the winning margin suggests.

A 6lb rise to a mark of 140 look lenient given the relative ease of her victory and improvement she showed on her first try over a marathon trip. She has shown a liking for a sound surface, so will have plenty of factors in her favour now that we are heading into the spring. A race like the Scottish National would look an obvious target.

Cap Du Nord: won the featured Grade 3 handicap at Kempton on Saturday. Alan Crowhurst

Cap Du Nord completed an excellent 15 minutes for Williams when he plundered the featured Grade 3 handicap chase over at Kempton. I’ve seen it suggested in many quarters that both he and jockey Jack Tudor had a ‘dream passage’ throughout the race, but I watched the enthralling head-cam footage and the first circuit looked far from comfortable.

While I’m not a seasoned jockey, Tudor couldn’t have been thrilled by the fact that they were unsighted at a number of fences and had to switch in a bid to find a pocket of space. The second circuit went more to plan and after he took up the running at the second-last, Cap Du Nord stayed on well to win by a cosy three lengths.

A 6lb raise from the handicapper is not insignificant, but it still leaves him on a very competitive mark. He finished a close fifth in last season’s bet365 Gold Cup off a mark of 140, so 133 is undeniably workable. His yard is clearly coming into good form and Cap Du Nord is a horse to keep onside.

GOING DOWN

I had high hopes for Moriko De Vassy heading into the Dovecote Hurdle at Kempton - he looked progressive, talented and hails from an unheralded yard - so it was disappointing to see him run no sort of race at all.

He struggled to lay up with the pace and failed to produce any kind of finishing effort. I’m convinced that wasn’t a true reflection of his ability and was heartened to see that his jockey, Aidan Coleman, had reported to the clerk of the scales that his mount had never travelled.

The Tom Symonds yard have had a quiet run of things lately (50 days without a winner), so it could be that the entire string is under a bit of a cloud.

Every downside has an upside, and that comes in the form of Moriko De Vassy’s handicap mark. The handicapper has dropped him 1lb to a mark of just 125, which I’m confident underestimates his ability. I will be keeping him on side this spring.

NON-MOVER

Saturday didn’t go all that well for the Gary Moore team. Teddy Blue ran a huge race to finish second in the Adonis Hurdle, but might have won had he not bungled the last flight. 

Shallwehaveonemore: jumped poorly when second in the Dovecote Hurdle. Steven Paston

Just over an hour later, Shallwehaveonemore suffered a similar fate after also jumping poorly. His most notable errors, which proved costly as he lost valuable momentum, came at the final two flights and I’m sure the Moore team felt they should have been collecting the winner’s prize.

He arrived at Kempton with a lofty reputation that was possibly not backed up by his on track performances - I felt that while his previous win was visually impressive the form lacked substance. A defeat here might mean sights are readjusted, but that shouldn’t dissuade us from the fact that he is undoubtedly an above-average performer.

The handicapper has left his mark unchanged at 133 and, while he might not have the mental maturity for a Cheltenham handicap, I would be confident that he has a few more races in him off his current rating.