Grand National Tips: find out who Tom Collins thinks will win Aintree's featured race
By Tom Collins
8 April 2022
The Grand National needs little introduction. First run in 1839 and undoubtedly the most famous horse race in the world, the stamina-sapping 4m2½f Aintree showpiece contest is like no other.
Despite maintaining its lofty status, the Grand National is not only losing its uniqueness due to the reduced size of the famous spruce fences, but it is becoming much easier to win. The importance of courageous and stout jumpers is diminishing with classier operators targeting the race on the back of Grade 1 tilts.
Nevertheless, there aren’t many better punting heats in the calendar year and, although people like to think the Derby and Gold Cup attract a wider audience, this is the one race that always draws in the casual viewer, which can only be seen as a positive for the sport. Let's get on to the nitty gritty - who is going to win and which ones should you eliminate from your thought process?
KEY TRENDS
Age is an important factor to consider in the Grand National. Eight-year-olds boast a fine recent record with four victories in the last six renewals, while no seven-year-old has won this race since 1940. Such negative statistics for the latter age group allows you to rule out Noble Yeats, who will be Sam Waley-Cohen’s final ride before hanging up his boots, and Coko Beach without hesitation.
Prior National experience isn’t a necessity anymore with 11 of the last 13 winners of the race writing their name into the history books on their first try in Aintree’s biggest race. Minella Times, Any Second Now and Burrows Saint, who finished first, third and fourth respectively in this race last year, will be looking to defy recent trends. Discorama and Cloth Cap are two others that will be having another crack at this prize.
Minella Times: last year's Grand National winner looks to repeat the feat
Safe jumping, rather than courageous leaps, is a crucial element - you want to back a horse that will finish the course, don’t you? Vast experience over fences can only be seen as a positive and eight of the last 13 winners had at least ten chase starts before plundering the Grand National. Of course, some horses take to fences quicker than others so this trend, albeit interesting, isn’t vital to follow.
Finally, those proven over this lung-bursting trip are generally limited to previous Grand National runners, but horses capable of staying distances in excess of three miles are considered likely to handle this distinctive challenge. Although stamina is an unknown for the vast majority of this year’s field, very few runners possess a profile that would worry me in that regard.
HORSES TO FOCUS ON
All the notable money this week has been for Becher winner Snow Leopardess and last year’s Grand National hero Minella Times, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if they were sent off joint favourites come race time.
In truth, neither made my shortlist and I certainly wouldn’t want to get involved at single-figure prices. Snow Leopardess is a phenomenal jumper and fully deserves her place in this race, but she has been seen at her best on deep ground over fences and, although she’s a dual good ground winner early in her career, she might be found out in these conditions, especially if she can’t dominate from the front.
Minella Times ticks most boxes and will be the recipient of plenty of win bets on the day due to his association with jockey Rachael Blackmore, but his 2022 campaign has been questionable and he has to carry 15lb more than last season. Any Second Now, who was badly hampered before finishing third to him last year should be able to reverse that form and is definitely a player.
Gigginstown’s maroon and white silks have been carried to glory in three of the last five Grand Nationals and the Irish owners will be represented by Delta Work, who beat two-time race winner Tiger Roll in the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham last month. Stamina and class aren’t an issue for this nine-year-old and a clear round might see him take first prize.
But it’s another Gordon Elliott-trained runner that tickles my fancy in Escaria Ten, who has been aimed at this race all season and will relish the quick ground. The lightly raced eight-year-old doesn’t quite boast the experience the majority of recent winners possessed, but he’s a big and scopey individual who rarely misses a fence and has form that ties in with Grade 1 performers Galvin and Monkfish.
Snow Leopardess (right): Becher winner at this course who was beaten by Escaria Ten last year
Don’t forget that Escaria Ten beat Snow Leopardess by 14 lengths when they finished third and fourth respectively in last year’s National Hunt Chase. If the Elliott yard had been firing in the winners, he would surely be vying for favouritism. The poor stable form is a slight worry, but Fury Road ran nicely yesterday.
Classic Chase winner Eclair Surf, ridden by SBK ambassador Tom Bellamy, is one of the leading lights for the home team along with Ladbrokes Trophy runner-up Fiddlerontheroof. But I’ll be sticking with the Irish for my other bet, which is Enjoy D’Allen.
McManus purchased this son of Network after his most recent fifth-placed finish in a Leopardstown handicap hurdle, and his presence in that race alone suggests previous connections believed he was well handicapped off a chase mark in the mid 140s. The British handicapper certainly hasn’t punished him and a month break since his last outing will have him primed for a career-best performance.
A steady improver since being upped to three miles and sure to go under the radar given his lesser-known trainer, Enjoy D’Allen looks a tasty play to back up Escaria Ten.