Goodwood Tips: an unexposed handicapper catches Tom Collins' eye on Friday
By Tom Collins
28 April 2022
The Punchestown Festival continues into Friday, along with the first day of Newmarket's Guineas meeting. But it's Goodwood that has the best punting contests for Flat racing fans and tipster Tom Collins has found two horses that are worth a second look on the card.
2.40 Goodwood, 5f handicap
Working out the speed scenario is the most important factor in any flat race. If you can confidently predict the likely pace map - pinpointing which horses will go forward and how fast they will go - then you are halfway towards finding the winner.
The next step is to factor in the track. Unlike in the US, where every racecourse except Kentucky Downs features oval-shaped turf and dirt circuits, Britain’s tracks differ from one to the next. Goodwood is one of the most unique, especially the straight five-furlong course.
After cresting a rise in the early portion of the sprint trip, runners in five-furlong contests fly downhill on one of the fastest sections of turf in the country. Front-runners tend to fare well, especially those who race against the favoured stands’ side rail on quick ground, and hold-up performers are generally forced to negotiate traffic.
This 0-100 contest will be run at blistering fractions with the Scott Dixon-trained Fine Wine expected to make a beeline towards the rail soon after breaking from gate five. The five-year-old began the turf season in rip-roaring form and has gone close on his two most recent outings. However, he is probably in the grip of the handicapper now and his aggressive style of running should set this contest up for a couple of talented opponents.
Stone Of Destiny is likely to head the betting for Andrew Balding due to his tumbling handicap mark. Now rated just 94, this tricky customer is just 1lb higher than when he landed the 21-runner Portland Handicap at Doncaster in 2020 and shaped nicely despite racing fresh in the early stages on his seasonal reappearance just over two weeks ago.
However, he has only won four of his 40 career starts and traded as short as 1.21 en route to a second-place finish in this contest last year. He requires plenty of luck in running and he may just stay on after the race has already been decided. A horse that has won just 10 per cent of their races over a number of seasons aren’t overly trustable.
I prefer the claims of Raasel, who won five consecutive races during a purple patch in the autumn for his shrewd connections. This son of Showcasing has learned to relax in his races but is best-suited by fast early fractions and clearly handles the downhill track at Goodwood.
He returned to action with a highly creditable fifth at Musselburgh and is expected to improve with that race under his belt. Drawn well in stall eight, which will allow him to race near the rail, Raasel can track the pace before returning to winning ways under James Doyle.
Selection: Raasel @ 7.8
4.25 Goodwood, 1m handicap
This three-year-old handicap is an intriguing contest to decipher. Last-time-out maiden winners Barley, Wineglass Bay and Dark Swansong will be well-found in the market for leading connections, but the two most interesting runners in the field (Wodeton and Zoom) are yet to record their first victory.
I liked the way that Wodeton moved into contention on his three-year-old reappearance at Newmarket and he should improve on his second outing after a gelding operation. He is sure to sit near the speed under David Probert and, although he figures to run a big race, he may get run down in the closing stages.
The Richard Hannon-trained Zoom has been ridden differently on each of his three starts. He travelled beautifully behind the leaders on debut at Newbury, but unsurprisingly found the 104-rated Dubai Poet far too good. While extremely patient tactics were employed in a valuable sales race on his second outing.
I loved the way he finished that race, and it was a bit of a surprise to see Pat Dobbs try to make every yard on him at Newbury earlier this month. Nevertheless, he ran a great race for fourth behind three highly-regarded rivals and an opening mark of 79 is a fair representation of what we’ve seen to date.
There is no doubt that there is more to come over this mile trip and I’m hopeful that connections will revert back to stalking tactics. If that’s the case, he could zoom to the front late.
Selection: Zoom @ 7.4