Millar's Method: Four horses for Glorious Goodwood

The Goodwood Festival takes centre stage this week. With many horses who ran at Royal Ascot appearing in Sussex, I’ve looked at one piece of Royal Ascot form for each day, will the form uphold or will the vastly different course set up on the more speed orientated Goodwood track see a reversal in form?

Tuesday

Horse: English Oak

Royal Ascot Form: Won Buckingham Palace Stakes

Goodwood Target: Lennox Stakes

English Oak was far superior to the field when winning by a comfortable three-lengths in the Buckingham Palace handicap off a mark of 99. The handicapper was clearly impressed and raised him a whopping 9lb to a new mark of 108

He certainly looked like the archetypal group horse in a handicap and now tests his credentials against genuine group horses including the winner of the 2023 edition of this race Kinross.

Noble Dynasty will also add stiff opposition, he finished ahead of English Oak at Newmarket in May and has since gone on to add a group three win to his CV. However, he was well beaten in a handicap at this meeting last year and I wonder whether he might not be seen to best effect on this track.

Kinross has won on lively ground before but his trainer Ralph Beckett has been open about the battle he faces to keep him sound, I think in his advancing years softer ground might suit him better, and while he’s clearly a good horse his form this year is a level below his best.

I think English Oak can find the progression needed to land this, he’ll like the ground and travelled powerfully at Ascot so this faster track holds no real concern. At 7/2 with SBK Ed Walker’s charge has a solid chance of landing this group two. 

Wednesday

The Horse: Henry Longfellow

The Royal Ascot form: 2nd St James’s Palace Stakes

Goodwood target: Sussex Stakes

Conclusion: Henry Longfellow was only a neck behind Rosallion at Ascot and the vibes emanating from Ballydoyle suggest they learned plenty about him there and were clearly prepared to have another crack at Richard Hannon’s colt. Sadly a minor respiratory issue means we’re denied that rematch, the absence of Rosallion clearly gives Henry Longfellow a far better chance of landing a first win of the season. Not only because his biggest rival is missing but because also Ryan Moore might now be able to ride stronger fractions from the front without fear of inadvertently giving Rosallion a strong pace to quicken off. 

The market now makes Notable Speech the likeliest danger, he was bitterly disappointing at Ascot when only seventh, a run which was clearly too bad to be true. I am though a little concerned that his trainer Charlie Appleby was unable to find a cause for such a moderate effort. The St James’s Palace was his fifth start in six months and he was clearly trained hard for the 2000 Guineas so all hopes rest on a 43 day break freshening him up however at 13/8 with SBK I think he’s short enough given he has to bounce back to form, when even then that may not be good enough to beat an improved Henry Longfellow.

However at a bigger price I’ll chance Facteur Cheval, he didn’t enjoy the smoothest passage when chasing home Paddington in this race last year and on his latest start in the Queen Anne he wouldn’t have been suited by the fast ground. I’m hoping a band of rain that is forecast for Wednesday morning arrives as a bit of cut would suit him well, at 7/1 with SBK he makes the most appeal.

Thursday

Horse: Opera Singer

Royal Ascot Form: 2nd Coronation Stakes

Goodwood Target: Nassau Stakes

I was disappointed with Opera Singer at Royal Ascot where I thought the stiff mile would play to her strengths. The form has been franked with Ascot victor, Porta Fortuna winning the Falmouth Stakes on her next start. 

Connections are confident that the extra two-furlongs will see her improve and that may well be the case, certainly her sire Justify is a provider of stamina. However, her dam Liscanna didn’t win at further than six-furlongs and of the eleven wins achieved by her eight other progeny to have raced none have been gained at further than a mile. Of course this is the might of Aidan O’Brien and Coolmore we’re talking about and they do know a thing or two about pedigrees, but her pedigree, along with the fact she wasn’t exactly storming home give reason to oppose her at a relatively short price.

The question is what to oppose her with? The John Gosden pair Emily Upjohn and Inspiral have looked below their best this year and on ratings will struggle to concede the 8lb age allowance.

In contrast to Opera Singer, the dam line pedigree of Elmalka strongly suggests that this step up to ten-furlongs will suit. Her dam Nahrain was a dual group one winner over this trip and furthermore she has produced multiple winners at further than a mile, including group one winner Benbatl.

Elmalka struggled to go quicken early in the home straight at Ascot but made a sustained charge inside the final furlong, similar as to when winning the 1000 Guineas. The markets appear to think that her classic win was an anomaly but I’m not so sure I’m sure she’ll improve greatly over the trip.

Friday

Horse: Asfoora

Royal Ascot Form: Won King Charles III Stakes

Goodwood Target: King George Stakes

A second tier sprinter in her native Australia, she highlighted the frailties in the domestic sprinting ranks when winning by a wide margin at Ascot. 

However, much was made of the suitability of the track at Ascot with connections suggesting the stiff nature of the track suited her well given the similarities to her training track in Australia. She does now have a vastly different track to deal with and most likely marginally slower ground. 

She might still be good enough but at a bigger price I want to side with Big Evs. An out and out speedster he was not quite able to sustain his fractions at Ascot and weakened into third inside the final half-furlong. The speed test of Goodwood will suit him far better and while he is well suited by summer ground he showed his versatility when winning over course and distance on soft ground at last year’s festival. Unlike at Ascot I expect him to be strong through the line, if so Asfoora will need to improve again to uphold the form and I don’t see that as being likely.  

Recommended Bets:

Back English Oak to win the Lennox Stakes @ 7/2
Back Facteur Cheval to win the Sussex Stakes @ 7/1
Back Elmalka to win the Nassau Stakes @ 10/1
Back Big Evs to win the King George Stakes @ 3/1