Friday’s Newmarket July Festival Tips: Returning heroine shouldn’t be dismissed in Falmouth

The Group 1 Falmouth Stakes headlines the action on day two of the July Festival, and it’s the George Boughey-trained Via Sistina who tops the market at the time of writing.

She will need a downpour to show her best - good to firm ground is far from ideal - so backing her the day before at around 2/1 seems rather foolish, especially when you also factor in that no five-year-old has won the Falmouth since Soviet Song in 2005. If you fancy Via Sistina, I would strongly suggest waiting until an hour before the race with an updated going description in mind. 

The market believes her main rival is Nashwa, but there are real question marks about whether John and Thady Gosden’s filly has trained on. A two-time Group 1 winner last term, Nashwa has been stuffed at 4/5 and 8/11 in two runs at lower levels this season and now has a point to prove going back up in class. She’s certainly not a betting commodity for me at the moment.

Three-year-olds have an excellent record in this race and Coronation Stakes runner-up Remarquee has to be considered for win purposes. She was perhaps a little unlucky behind Tahiyra given she was short of room at a crucial time, and a repeat of that performance would make her a contender. 

However, I’m going to side with last year’s winner Prosperous Voyage at a bigger price. Ralph Beckett’s four-year-old bounced back from a poor run in the 2022 edition of the Coronation Stakes to surprisingly deny Inspiral victory in this event 12 months ago and she seems to be trending in the right direction ahead of her follow up bid.

Her penultimate performance in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom is worth upgrading as she badly missed the kick, and I thought she plugged on gamely at Royal Ascot last month after coming off the bridle first.

Prosperous Voyage has always produced her best efforts at Newmarket (both tracks) and the uphill finish on the July course suits her. A front-running ride can see her reverse Ascot form with Random Harvest and hit the frame at double-figure odds.

The other horse I like on the card is Conquistador, who I fancied to win the Palace Of Holyrood House at Royal Ascot last month. He finished third that day but was far from disgraced in a highly competitive field, and it’s worth noting that he finished behind two lightly raced and well-handicapped rivals.

Surprisingly, the handicapper has kept Conquistador on his mark of 86 and it’s surely only a matter of time before he takes advantage. Hopefully that comes in the cavani.co.uk The Sartorial Sprint Handicap (5.20).

I like the booking of William Buick, who rides this track exceptionally well and also partnered this three-year-old to victory on Boxing Day last year, and he faces notably weaker opposition this time.

Friday’s Newmarket July Festival Tips

Prosperous Voyage (3.35 Newmarket) @ 11.5 each-way
Conquistador (5.20 Newmarket) @ 3.9