Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips: Tom Collins isn’t giving up on City Of Troy just yet

This year’s Derby falls someway below expectation when it comes to depth. That is not to say that there aren’t good three-year-olds in the field, just that the perceived best of this generation have either disappointed on their most recent start, picked up an injury in the build up, or have been rerouted elsewhere.

Two notable absentees are Godolphin’s first string Arabian Crown and Dante winner Economics, both of whom would have featured high up in the betting, but it’s half of the mission to get your horse to Group 1 races in the right shape to compete and therefore drop-outs are almost guaranteed.

We are left with a field of 16 runners, only five of which possess an official rating in excess of 110. That is the fewest in that category since 2015 when Golden Horn ran out an easy winner under Frankie Dettori, and a far cry from the heights of 2018 when 10 of the 12 runners had lofty marks.

On figures alone you would be forgiven for thinking that City Of Troy was a good thing here due to his mark of 125, but the hysteria on social media following his lacklustre 2,000 Guineas performance has seen his price fluctuate over the past month. A lot has been said about that display, most of which I believe to be complete rubbish, though he does need to bounce back in a pretty big way.

A repeat of that display would see him finish nearer last than first in the Derby, but since when have we not forgiven a top-quality horse one bad run? Perhaps I’m a little biased given I’m sitting on an antepost ticket and already advised backing him last July at a much bigger price, but these animals aren’t machines and there was clearly something amiss with him at Newmarket.

I’m going to stick with City Of Troy and hope that he bounces back. He proved last year that he was one of the best two-year-olds we have ever seen, and talent like that doesn’t just disappear. Perhaps he will show that he hasn’t trained on by finishing third or fourth with an RPR of ~120, but we simply don’t know whether that’s the case yet. 

Obviously his preparation, the draw (stall one), and the ground are all reasons for doubting him, enough to say that he will likely be fragile in the market, but he’s clearly the standout on raw talent and that’s good enough for me. I won’t be going in again as I have a tasty outlay already, but I’ll certainly be cheering him home unlike many others.

Onto the main bets on Saturday, both of which come early in the day. I will stay at Epsom for the opening Hong Kong Jockey Club Lester Piggott Handicap (1.25), which has been filled with unexposed three-year-olds representing leading connections.

The Richard Hannon-trained Persica has been all the rage in recent days, shortening from around 14/1 to 3/1 with SBK. His two starts this year have been mightily encouraging - punters will see his formline with 2,000 Guineas winner Notable Speech and jump on the bandwagon - but the value has gone from his price now and I’m happy to look elsewhere.

Cool Legend and Bubbles Wonky look sure to improve for their comeback runs, so they could be dangerous at bigger prices, but I’m keen to stick with Portsmouth for trainer Andrew Balding, who has won this event three times in the last six years.

This gelding had three quick runs in novice events just before the turn of the year and was gelded prior to his winter break. The handicapper awarded him an opening mark of 74, which Portsmouth made to look silly when he romped home at this course on his reappearance in April.

Balding then sent him to Goodwood for a small-field handicap over this 1m2f trip and plenty went wrong. There was no front-runner in the field and Portsmouth pulled himself to the lead, a move that would normally result in a horse emptying out in the latter stages. To my surprise, he quickened nicely once asked and performed admirably to fill the runner-up berth.

That formline has been given a couple of boosts since with third-placed finisher Al Khawaneej River winning at Windsor last Saturday and fourth home Ashariba also earning a spot in the winner’s enclosure earlier this week. The winner, Lavender Hill Mob, finished fourth in a Listed event, too. From a good inside draw and a faster gallop ensured, Portsmouth should take a lot of beating.

I’ll head up to Scotland for my other UK bet, which is New Image in the 7f Edinburgh Gin Handicap (2.15 Musselburgh). I was initially looking at Rock Melody here, but he’s always vulnerable to an improver and New Image fits the bill.

This son of Frankel began his career in Ireland for Ger Lyons and Juddmonte, but was quickly sold for 45,000gns after two defeats at the Curragh. I’m not sure what led to him missing the whole of last season, but he returned from a long absence with a nice victory over an inadequate trip at Southwell in March this year and has run creditably in three subsequent outings. 

I, like many others, was anticipating an improved showing on the switch to turf last time and the fact that he tasted defeat was a little disappointing. However, that race seemed to get away from him a touch on pretty quick ground and it’s also worth noting that he was tightened up close to the line when he was making a bid for minor money.

 The extra bit of dig underfoot this week should suit and I’m sure that his mark of 84 underestimates his talent. Hopefully he can provide talented 3lb claimer Mark Winn with more success.

Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips

Portsmouth (1.25 Epsom) @ 4/1
New Image (2.15 Musselburgh) @ 7/4

Already advised
City Of Troy (4.30 Epsom) @ 16/1