Doncaster Tips: Richard Hannon is the man to follow on Thursday and here's why

A key element to punting on horse racing is deciding how much emphasis you should put on each variable - form, ground, weather, pace scenario, ratings, speed figures et al. 

Ordering them from most to least important is understandably personal preference - there is no hard and fast way to make long-term profit in an unpredictable and competitive sport. The key is to recognise that your system should be flexible based on the race that you are studying, and that value in the price is crucial.

Sales races are a prime example as to why flexibility is significant. Aiming to win rich prizes with cheaply-purchased juveniles isn’t every trainer’s method of operating. The likes of Charlie Appleby, Aidan O’Brien and John and Thady Gosden often dominate the standings but would rarely have a runner in these contests, for example. 

I don’t believe much importance should be placed on the trainer of a horse you fancy as the vast majority in the UK and Ireland are more than capable of preparing a runner to win, but in sales races that changes.

Andrew Balding, Richard Fahey and Richard Hannon have a stranglehold on this division. All three, but especially the last two named, are capable of finding diamonds in the rough at the yearling sales and are regularly represented by quality equine performers in races of this nature. Given the race conditions of a sales contest (weight is determined by purchase price of the sire’s progeny and not official ratings), their runners tend to prove supremely difficult to beat. 

Doncaster’s Weatherbys Scientific £300,000 2-Y-O Stakes (2.00) has twice been won by Balding in the last three years and he’s represented by Holguin this time around, but I believe Hannon is the man to follow despite failing to win this prize in the last decade.

The Wiltshire trainer has two solid chances of taking the £147,500 winner’s pot, although the market only considers Magical Sunset worthy of a single-figure price. This Amo Racing-owned daughter of Kodiac has been allocated a weight of 8st 13lb, but she’s bred to be precocious and made a fantastic start to her racing career.

Sent off at 14-1 on debut at Windsor last month, Magical Sunset broke alertly and found cover despite being wide on the track after the first two furlongs. She took a few strides to find her balance once asked to quicken, but she accelerated impressively inside the final furlong and held off a well-touted rival in Sakheer, who has subsequently won by half the track at Haydock.

The pair drew four-and-three-quarter lengths clear of the third-home, who is now rated 73, and there was no fluke about Magical Sunset’s victory. She might emulate half-brother Hey Jonesy by earning a rating in the 110s early in her career, and she looks professional enough to do herself justice on just her second outing.

Stablemate Hectic is available at three times the price and therefore shouldn’t be overlooked. Pat Dobbs’ mount made a good start to life by convincingly beating the reopposing Alpha Capture, who is somehow a shorter price here, at Newbury back in July. He was then sent to the Acomb at York - a race that Hannon has had little luck in - and he finished just sixth.

On paper it was a step in the wrong direction, but he travelled nicely for much of the contest before being eased down in the final 100 yards when victory was out of the question. Doncaster should suit him better than York and I like the slight drop in trip. He might not be as good as Magical Sunset, but he carries 2lb less and has drawn well in stall six.

Recommended bets

Magical Sunset (2.00 Doncaster) @ 4.9
Hectic (2.00 Doncaster) @ 14