Races In Focus: Tom Collins dissects Saturday’s Dewhurst and Cesarewitch

The Dewhurst is undoubtedly the pinnacle of the British two-year-old racing programme - you just need to look at the roll of honour to work that one out. 

Historians will be keen to mention Dewhurst victories for the likes of Nijinsky (1969), Mill Reef (1970) and Grundy (1974) among others, but those perhaps newer to the sport will understand the importance of Newmarket’s 7f contest when they see Frankel (2010), Pinatubo (2019), St Mark’s Basilica (2020) and, most recently, Native Trail (2021) among the previous winners.

This contest provides the perfect stepping stone for talented juveniles to assert themselves as the best in the division, while also making their case for the following year’s Classics. Little Big Bear, who isn’t running here, currently heads the market for the 2023 2,000 Guineas. Will that change after the Dewhurst?

The best chance of that happening would be if Nostrum retained his unbeaten record by landing the Dewhurst. Likely to be sent off around 2.3 (11-8) favourite for Saturday’s contest, Sir Michael Stoute’s juvenile has showcased a high level of ability in two starts, as well as tactical versatility and an abundance of tactical speed, meaning he can be held up or ridden on the pace without being disadvantaged.

His recent Somerville Stakes beating of Holloway Boy is perhaps the best piece of form on offer here and therefore he warrants plenty of respect, especially given he is likely still improving. However, he is on the short side and, although I’m not desperate to oppose him, I’d rather find a value alternative.

The horse in question is Aesop’s Fables, who bolted up in a 5½f maiden back in April and followed up in the Group 2 Irish Futurity Stakes after a 119-day absence. Aidan O’Brien’s two-year-old proved he stayed this 7f trip that day and, although he subsequently disappointed in the National Stakes at a short price, there were mitigating factors there.

No Nay Never’s strike at 26% on soft ground, but I tend to believe they’re better on quicker conditions and perhaps he didn’t handle the testing going that day. He was also ridden pretty aggressively in a race dominated by hold-up performers. With ideal conditions forecast, Aesop’s Fables can put it up to Nostrum.

Oscar can Run home fastest in the Cesarewitch

Rarely do I fancy a horse as much as I like Run For Oscar in this year’s Cesarewitch. Is he not just absolutely chucked in off a mark of 90? 

Trainer Charles Byrnes is the shrewdest in the game when it comes to aiming a horse at a big-field handicap, whether that be on the flat or over jumps, and back in 2020 he hinted that Run For Oscar could be seen to good effect in a big-field contest on the level in the future. Over two years later, we will find out if he was right.

This seven-year-old was in good form over hurdles this time last year and earned a rating of 144 following his seventh-placed finish in the Grade 2 West Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby. He has only been seen three times since, all of those appearances coming on the flat to make sure that he qualified and race-fit for the Cesarewitch. 

After a couple of pipeopeners, Run For Oscar was sent to Haydock for a competitive Sunday Series handicap and he fairly blew away his rivals with a strong-staying effort. The handicapper hit him with a 9lb penalty as a result, just enough to get into this rich prize. All-in-all, it was a fantastic piece of race planning.

Stamina is this horse’s forte - he’s by jumps sire Oscar, don’t forget - and this 2m2f contest should suit him down to the ground. He gets to run off 90 here, fully 54lb lower than his hurdling mark (the general rule of thumb is that it is roughly a 40lb translation, so by that standard he’s clearly well treated), and Byrnes has shrewdly booked David Egan, who is having a career-best year.

This isn’t the strongest edition of the race - it’s pretty hard to make a solid case for the vast majority of the 23 runners - and Run For Oscar can take advantage. He was a little bigger earlier in the week, so some of the value has unfortunately disappeared by the time this column goes live, but I still think anything above 10-3 represents value. Let’s go Oscar!

Saturday Newmarket tips

Aesop’s Fables (3.00 Newmarket) @ 8
Run For Oscar (3.40 Newmarket) @ 5.7