Christmas Horse Racing Tips: Tom Collins is giving Shishkin another chance at a tasty price

Ho Ho Ho Merry Christmas, punters! As Buddy the Elf once said: ‘The best way to spread Christmas cheer is to scream home your selections for all to hear’. Pretty apt, I think…

Boxing Day brings with it 11 domestic racing fixtures, which will offer up a whopping 76 races. And it all comes before a phenomenal evening of action gets underway at Santa Anita with numerous Graded contests - don’t forget about that! 

A bit of housekeeping before we start: I’m writing this on Thursday, December 21, which is before full declarations have been announced. Please bear that in mind in case of non-runners. Let’s get into the action.

The Grade 1 King George VI Chase (2.30 Kempton) is the event that everyone is talking about. It’s the second-most prestigious staying chase in the country after the Cheltenham Gold Cup and will feature several horses who will look to enhance their claims of festival success in March.

Gerri Colombe’s participation looks in serious doubt as the ground quickens up at Kempton, but the likes of Allaho, The Real Whacker, Shishkin, and last year’s winner Bravemansgame are all in the field at the time of writing.

Bravemansgame was antepost favourite for this contest after scooping the prize last year, but his preparation hasn’t gone to plan with defeats in the Charlie Hall and Betfair Chase. He didn’t seem to have an excuse on either occasion - he should have won the former if he was good enough despite missing the last fence - and now he’s drifted in the betting.

I don’t like the fact that Paul Nicholls has decided to come here without a fresh horse (he ran just 31 days ago) and, although he is well suited to this track and trip, I find it hard to have maximum faith in Bravemansgame on the back of a poor start to his season by his high standards.

I’m even more concerned about Allaho, who has been a winning machine in his career but makes just his second start after an enforced 561-day layoff. He wasn’t tested on his reappearance, where he was virtually gifted the victory by a stable companion, and the bounce factor could be in play. He has also jumped markedly left when going right-handed before, and that’s a big issue.

As a result, the value almost certainly lies with Shishkin. Nicky Henderson’s nine-year-old has been a star of the jumps scene for numerous years now and has racked up 13 victories from 18 starts in a glittering career. Doubters (I was one of them) started to arise after he disappointed at Cheltenham in March 2022, but he quietened them when he took the Aintree Bowl over three miles in the spring.

That effort proved he still retains most of his ability and I’m not willing to write him off after he refused to race on his return. There is every chance that was a one-off and you have to be slightly forgiving in this game. If he refuses to race once again then it’s fair to believe that he may have lost his love of racing, but as of now he remains a top-class performer who has been overlooked in the betting.

Time to head elsewhere now and, depending on the price, my biggest bet on Boxing Day is likely to be on the Dan Skelton-trained Santos Blue, who is declared to run in the 2m5½f handicap hurdle (2.10) at Wetherby for owner Nick Sutton.

This Blue Bresil gelding spoiled my party 12 months ago when he beat Sporting Mike at this venue. I had a large wager on Ben Pauling’s runner and was extremely confident that he would get the job done at around 4/1, before watching him come up short in a close finish. The positive is that Santos Blue proved it was no fluke by winning his next two outings.

He’s winless in three starts since, but he was beaten just three-quarters of a length by subsequent Graded winner Broadway Boy on his final start last year and wasn’t far behind Stayers’ Hurdle prospect Crambo on his seasonal reappearance at Aintree. Either of those runs would be good enough to win this much weaker affair so I'm hoping for a bit of compensation this year!

The 3m3½f Lincolnshire National (2.57) is the highlight at Market Rasen - a race I wouldn’t usually punt in. However, the Sue Smith-trained O’Connell sticks out like a sore thumb in the declarations after his bloodless victory over a shorter trip here when last seen.

This seven-year-old remains completely unexposed with just five chase starts to his name and I loved the way he powered through his race last time out. He shapes like a proper stayer and he jumps with professionalism and great fluency for a horse so inexperienced. 

Last year’s runner-up Geryville is perhaps the biggest danger, but O’Connell remains exceptionally well treated off a mark of 110 (6lb higher than last time) and Smith’s horses have been running out of the skin this month.

Finally, it’s off to Chepstow for the Welsh Grand National (2.50) on December 27. I haven’t had much luck in recent renewals of this contest - the horses I have bet have finished in the places in the last five years which isn’t much good for win bets - but hopefully that changes this time around.

I have backed the Jamie Snowden-trained Super Survivor at prices ranging from 7/1 to 9/1 as I’m convinced that this stamina test on soft ground will play to his strengths. He needs to get into the final field (currently number 27 in the list with a maximum field of 20), but other than that it’s all positives from here on out.

I loved how he fended off the talented Mister Coffey over three miles at this venue last year and his two subsequent efforts have been as equally promising as they have been eyecatching. The most interesting of them was a second-placed finish behind stablemate Git Maker on his comeback last month.

That beast is being aimed at the Midlands National and has now won three in a row (and six out of nine in his career), yet he didn't exactly put Super Survivor in his place. The extra distance is crucial to him - he gallops all day - and I like how he can maintain his momentum even when he briefly misses a fence or two. He has all the characteristics of a Welsh National winner so hopefully the plan works out well.

Christmas Horse Racing Tips

Santos Blue (2.10 Wetherby, December 26) @ SP
Shishkin (2.30 Kempton, December 26) @ 11/2
O’Connell (2.57 Market Rasen, December 26) @ SP
Super Survivor (2.50 Chepstow, December 27) @ 5/1