Chester Tips: three runners have caught Tom Collins' attention on Wednesday

The Flat season is well underway and we already have two 2022 Classics under our belt. That's the beauty of flat racing.

Godolphin and Charlie Appleby got off to the best possible start when Coroebus beat stablemate Native Trail in the 2,000 Guineas on Saturday, while Cachet secured a famous victory for SBK ambassador George Boughey in the 1,000 Guineas on Sunday. Up next: the Oaks and Derby in four weeks' time.

Plenty of clues for Epsom's showpiece three-year-old contests will be available at Chester's May meeting this week, and our horse racing tipster Tom Collins has three confident selections for Wednesday's card.

1.30 Chester, 5f Lily Agnes Conditions Stakes

The first port of call for punters when Chester’s May meeting arrives is to focus on the draw. Wasting energy by racing wide and giving away ground around the tight left-handed turns on the Roodee is hard to overcome - everyone knows that, right?

What tends to get ignored is that hold-up performers regularly struggle to hit the board with the downhill nature of the racecourse favouring those on, or near, the speed. Accelerating into a quickening pace is extremely difficult to do and they rarely go too fast around here.

Those important factors are clearly visible in the recent roll of honour for the Lily Agnes, which kicks off proceedings on Wednesday. Seven of the last nine winners have made every yard of running, while six of the last nine winners have jumped from stalls one to four. There also hasn’t been a winner sent off bigger than 6-1 in that timeframe.

With that in mind, it’s extremely difficult to take on market leader Star Of Lady M. This daughter of sharp first-season sire Havana Grey has impressed in both starts to date, most notably when she cleared away from Brocklesby runner-up Primrose Ridge, who has won since, on her debut. 

She took a big step forward on figures just ten days later when she carried a penalty to victory at Ripon and connections couldn’t have dreamed of a better draw than stall two, which should allow her to find the perfect racing position. There isn’t a rival in this field that breaks better than her and I fully expect her to justify favouritism.

Selection: Star Of Lady M @ 2.6

2.40 Chester, 1m3½f Cheshire Oaks

Aidan O’Brien has won six of the last 13 editions of the Cheshire Oaks, including with subsequent Group 1 winners Diamondsandrubies (2015) and Magic Wand (2018), but his recent runners have failed to inspire and missed the board. It could be the same this year as Ballydoyle entrant, Thoughts Of June, needs to improve a great deal to contend the finish.

Although she’s beautifully bred and open to progression, Thoughts Of June enters this race as a maiden after three starts and will struggle to overturn a two-and-three-quarter-length Leopardstown beating by Above The Curve, who currently heads the market for Joseph O’Brien. 

A daughter of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, Above The Curve was heavily punted that day and may be subject to another strong market move given her unlimited potential. There is every chance that she outclasses these, but the unique topography of Chester might present an issue for this big filly.

For that reason, I’m willing to take her on with a similarly unexposed rival who also attracted money prior to her most recent winning effort. The horse in question is Night Battle, who was slammed into 5 (from 20) on her debut at Lingfield and overcame a slow start to beat two more experienced opponents from leading yards.

She will need to be more professional from the gates if she is to maintain her unbeaten record and an RPR of 76 on debut leaves her with almost two stone to find to win an average edition of this race. However, marked improvement from her first to second run is likely, especially now that she tackles a longer trip, and the booking of Newmarket hero James Doyle can only be seen as a positive.

Selection: Night Battle @ 4.6

4.15 Chester, 1m2½f maiden stakes

Charlie Appleby and Godolphin have been farming races left, right and centre over the last 18 months and, as a result, the vast majority of horses hailing from Moulton Paddocks will be overbet in the market.

Once-raced maiden Secret State is sure to attract plenty of support given the promise he showed on debut at Newmarket, but there’s more depth in this race than the betting might suggest and he is worth opposing at the prices.

I like the claims of Berkshire Breeze, whose pedigree is packed with stamina. The son of Mastercraftsman caught the eye with a strong late burst on his racecourse debut at Kempton in August and travelled beautifully for a long way when upped in trip on his seasonal return at Newbury.

That race was won by the Appleby-trained Natural World, who might run in the SBK Derby Trial at Lingfield on Saturday, so the form looks strong. Andrew Balding cuts Berkshire Breeze back half a furlong here and has a phenomenal 23 per cent strike-rate (46/200) and +£35.22 profit to £1 level stakes with his three-year-olds at Chester. From stall one, a stalk and pounce trip is predicted.

Selection: Berkshire Breeze @ 7

Recommended bets

Star Of Lady M (1.30 Chester) @ 2.6
Night Battle (2.40 Chester) @ 4.6
Berkshire Breeze (4.15 Chester) @ 7