Cheltenham Festival Tips: Tom Collins provides a race-by-race guide on Friday

I haven’t recovered from Galopin Des Champs’ heart-breaking fall at the final fence in the Turners yesterday. He was extremely brave at every obstacle and he, and rider Paul Townend, saw the perfect stride at the last, only to buckle on landing. The pair will be back at Cheltenham again next season, I’m sure.

However, you’re not here for a review of Thursday’s action, are you? I am lucky enough to be on track at Cheltenham on Friday and have strong opinions on the card, so let's get straight into my tips and analysis for the final day of the festival.

1.30 Cheltenham, 2m½f Triumph Hurdle

Very few jumps horses excite me as much as the Willie Mullins-trained Vauban - perhaps Champion Bumper winner Facile Vega is the exception after his rout in miserable conditions on Wednesday! 

This four-year-old moved to Closutton with a big reputation after wins at Lyon-Parilly and Vichy on the flat, and the latter strike came in a Listed race over 1m4f. That trip was obviously his bare minimum and he only got on top late, but the way he hit the line on soft ground strongly suggested that he could make up into a nice hurdler.

He clearly showed positive signs at home prior to his hurdling debut as he was sent off the 4/9 favourite in a 20-runner Punchestown novice event. Vauban didn’t justify his prohibitive price, but he ran with great credit (he suffered interference throughout the early stages and missed the final flight) to go down by half-a-length to Pied Piper, who reopposes here.

His sole subsequent outing saw him produce a sparkling turn of foot to romp home by three lengths in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle at the Dublin Racing Festival last month. He made Fil D’Or look slow that day and a similar performance would be enough to follow up. He’s my nap of the whole festival.

Selection: Vauban @ 3

2.10 Cheltenham, 2m½f County Handicap Hurdle

State Man has been all the rage among ante-post punters, and Willie Mullins has, in my opinion, opted for the right race with him. He, like Vauban, comes with a huge reputation and has been sent off as the short-priced favourite on each of his two outings in Ireland this season. He was undeniably impressive last time, but it was a weak race and inexperience could catch him out in this big field.

At the prices you have to oppose him and I prefer both Colonel Mustard, who finished third behind Sir Gerhard and Three Stripe Life (first and second in Wednesday’s Ballymore) when last seen, and Top Bandit, who will run in very similar red and white silks. 

I’ll back them both, but the main selection is Top Bandit. He’s a novice, much like the aforementioned State Man, but he’s had far more experience and would be unbeaten in five runs this year had he not sprawled on landing three-out at Limerick in October.

His last two victories were supremely impressive and he’s been freshened up with this race in mind. The more the ground dries out, the better for Top Bandit, and a mark of 139 appears lenient.

Selection: Top Bandit @ 15

2.50 Cheltenham, 3m Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle

Punters seeking a big-priced winner could have done far worse than zone in on the Albert Bartlett in recent years. Eight of the last nine winners of the 3m novices’ hurdle have gone off at 11-1 or bigger, including subsequent Gold Cup winner Minella Indo, who crossed the line in front as an unconsidered 50-1 shot in 2019.

This year’s renewal has plenty of strength in depth, too, and is undoubtedly one of the hottest editions of the Albert Bartlett in recent memory. Likely favourite Ginto deserves to head the market after an impressive four-length victory in the Grade 1 Lawlor’s Of Naas Hurdle when last seen. He takes a marked step up in trip, though, and has to prove that he stays.

Hillcrest is another horse worth mentioning. The big chaser-to-be has dominated the British division this year, but he had a pretty hard race at Haydock last time and may not replicate that performance. 

I prefer The Nice Guy at the prices. Willie Mullins has always considered this seven-year-old as a star chaser in the making and he is sure to tackle fences next season. His running style indicates that he has stamina in abundance and he did well to win a couple of 2m bumpers, before sprinting away from his field over 2m3f when last seen. Further progression is likely over this distance.

Selection: The Nice Guy @ 16.5

3.30 Cheltenham, 3m2½f Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase

It’s time for the big one - the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Galvin, who was long considered a Grand National prospect before he beat A Plus Tard in the Savills Chase, heads the market with his aforementioned foe just half a point bigger. 

Last year’s champion, Minella Indo, returns to Cheltenham in an attempt to retain his crown. While 2019 and 2020 winner Al Boum Photo and King George hero Tornado Flyer also throw their hat into the ring. Don’t count out Many Clouds Chase winner Protektorat, either.

The top six in the market are split by 10lb on official ratings, though they’re far more comparable on recent form than the marks suggest. I’m going to stick with A Plus Tard on the basis that we didn’t see him at his best last time out. The Henry De Bromhead team were in the midst of a terrible patch in February and, although they’re not exactly firing now, his horses have run reasonably all week.

If A Plus Tard returns to the level of form he showed in the Betfair Chase then he’ll be difficult to deny.

Selection: A Plus Tard @ 4.9

4.10 Cheltenham, 3m2½f National Hunt Chase

On last year’s runner-up finish Billaway deserves to be favourite to win the 2022 National Hunt Chase. However, I don’t want to be piling in at relatively short odds against horses I have limited knowledge of. 

This isn’t a punting race for me, as a result, but the one horse of interest at a reasonable price is Dubai Quest. This nine-year-old is unbeaten in two starts under rules and has been prolific in the pointing sphere. If he jumps well, he could play a part in the finish.

Selection: Dubai Quest @ 10.5

4.50 Cheltenham, 2m4½f Mares’ Chase

We had a brilliant match between two Willie Mullins-trained mares in this race last year as Colreevy fended off stablemate Elimay in a thrilling finish. The latter returns in an attempt to go one better and has outstanding claims on her best form, but she was beaten by Mount Ida two starts back and little separates the pair.

I would have sided with Mount Ida but for her inconsistent and frankly shambolic jumping, which almost cost her the Kim Muir last year. If she jumps more fluently, she will probably win this race.

However, I ended up coming down on the consistent Concertista. One thing you know you’ll get from her is a solid performance. She’s never finished outside the top four in 11 starts for Mullins and has form figures of 212 at the Cheltenham festival.

Selection: Concertista @ 5

5.30 Cheltenham, 2m4½f Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle

Langer Dan’s runner-up finish in this race last year caught everyone’s eye, but he might have been flattered by the way the race panned out and he was clearly passing a number of tired rivals. His comeback effort, albeit when not fully tuned up, was a touch disappointing and I’d be worried that he’s given a fair amount to do once again.

Six of the last eight renewals have gone to the Irish, two courtesy of Gordon Elliott-trained runners in 2017 and 2018, and the County Meath trainer might enhance his recent record courtesy of Chemical Energy.

Set to be partnered by Shane Fitzgerald, who rode 50-1 poke Commander Of Fleet to win on Wednesday, Chemical Energy will make his first start in handicap company after three novice hurdle runs. His sole blip this season came over an inadequate 2m, but he bounced back to beat a 132-rated rival last time out. His mark of 137 is very fair with further improvement likely.

Selection: Chemical Energy @ 13.5

Recommended bets:

Vauban @ 3
Top Bandit @ 15
The Nice Guy @ 16.5
A Plus Tard @ 4.9
Dubai Quest @ 10.5
Concertista @ 5
Chemical Energy @ 13.5