Cheltenham Festival Tips: Tom Collins provides a race-by-race guide on day three

We have reached the halfway point of the 2022 Cheltenham Festival and the weather took a turn for the worse yesterday. How are you getting on? There are still 14 races to go at this marathon showpiece meeting and plenty of time to back a few winners. SBK tipster Tom Collins offers up his analysis and tips for Thursday’s seven-race card.

1.30 Cheltenham, 2m3½f Turners Novices’ Chase

Only four horses will go to post for the Thursday opener, and it looks like it will be a match between leading Irish prospects Bob Olinger and Galopin Des Champs, both of whom won at the Cheltenham festival last year, as outsiders El Barra and Busselton have upwards of a stone to find on official figures.

I’m quite surprised that last year’s Ballymore hero Bob Olinger heads the market. There is no denying his talent and he was one of the most impressive winners at this meeting 12 months ago, but he’s taken time to adapt to chasing and seems to need every yard of this trip to be seen at his best.

Furthermore, he has 3lb to find on ratings (161 compared to 164) on Galopin Des Champs, who should be a shade of odds-on in my opinion. The Willie Mullins-trained six-year-old has been untouchable since he landed the Martin Pipe here last year and, although I think he was better suited to the Brown Advisory yesterday, he has outstanding credentials over this trip.

Already twice successful in Grade 1 company, Galopin Des Champs is likely to take this race to Bob Olinger and may never be caught.

Selection: Galopin Des Champs

2.10 Cheltenham, 3m Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle

This is the one race that I focus on from a long way out - I’m not a huge ante-post punter, but there’s just something about the Pertemps Final that gets me going. Sire De Berlais landed a nice touch in 2019 (I was on at 25-1) and, although I haven’t backed the winner since, I’m hopeful that two-year drought will come to an end tomorrow.

Watching the rain pour down yesterday only increases my confidence in the Gordon Elliott-trained Dunboyne, who fortunately scraped in off bottomweight. I thought he was going to miss the cut after failing to hit the places (and therefore getting a rise in the weights) on his last ride at Leopardstown, but fortunately Jack Kennedy’s poor ride meant little in the end.

Prior to that effort he flew home from off the pace to finish fifth in the qualifier at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting that so often produces the winner of the Final. His sole career success came on heavy ground at Thurles and he has a huge chance off a mark of 134.

Selection: Dunboyne

2.50 Cheltenham, 2m4½f Ryanair Chase

Allaho is the Cheltenham banker for most people, there is no doubt about that. Few horses won at last year’s festival with such authority - he blew his rivals out of the water to win this race by a mouth-watering 12 lengths, a margin that could have been doubled if he was extended at any point.

Life has been pretty much plain-sailing for the Cheveley Park-owned chaser since, aside from a rare blip at Punchestown last season when he finished second to Chacun Pour Soi over an inadequate 2m, and he warrants short-price favouritism. I don’t want to take him on.

Shan Blue may be his main danger if he has recovered from a nasty fall in the Charlie Hall Chase 138 days ago. Cheltenham stalwart Melon can’t be overlooked for place purposes, while Conflated has been re-routed here from the Gold Cup and looks a classy conveyance.

Selection: Allaho

3.30 Cheltenham, 3m Stayers’ Hurdle

There is no standout in this year’s Stayers’ Hurdle. All ten runners have an obvious downside - Flooring Porter is winless in three starts this year and might prefer quicker ground; Thyme Hill has never established himself as the dominant force in this division; Champ threw away an obvious winning opportunity in the Cleeve and Paisley Park might be a bit long in the tooth now. I could carry on.

Perhaps the most solid play in a tricky heat is Klassical Dream, who has form on very testing conditions in France and is arguably the most talented horse in this field when he’s at his best. He returned from a 487-day layoff to win the Grade 1 Stayers’ at Punchestown last April and looked as good as ever on his return this season in the Christmas Hurdle.

He readily fended off Flooring Porter that day and, although he disappointed last time up, the relatively quick turnaround and tacky ground might not have suit. The only negative is that he only has one way of going - hard from the outset. If he can sustain his effort then he’s the horse to beat.

Selection: Klassical Dream

4.10 Cheltenham, 2m4½f Plate Handicap Chase

British-trained runners noticeably outnumber their Irish counterparts in the Plate, which is in stark contrast to most of the handicaps this week. Four-time heavy ground winner Celebre D’Allen is the horse to beat after yesterday’s downpour, but he’s a relatively short-priced favourite in a wide-open heat.

I’m going to take a chance on one of the Irish runners in the shape of Grand Paradis. He recorded two heavy ground victories in February last year, including a Grade 3 novice hurdle success at Thurles, and has warmed to his task over fences after a questionable start in this sphere.

Grand Paradis wasn’t beaten far by Floueur, who ran well at this meeting earlier in the week, back in January and only found the classy Blue Sari too good last time out. This marks his first handicap start and he hasn’t been unduly punished off a mark of 145.

Selection: Grand Paradis

4.50 Cheltenham, 2m½f Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle

Willie Mullins has won five of the six renewals of the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle and seems to have a strangehold on this year’s contest with the lightly raced Dinoblue, exciting Brandy Love and consistent Grangee all featuring at the head of the betting.

Five-year-old Dinoblue, who won her sole start on heavy ground at Clonmel, could be the next dominant force in this division if her reputation is replicated on the track. However, she’s been the subject of pretty strong support all week and I can’t be backing her. That doesn’t mean she won’t win, of course.

I’m going to stick with the solid option, which is undoubtedly Grangee. She won a Grade 2 bumper on soft/heavy ground at Leopardstown last year before finishing sixth behind the likes of Sir Gerhard and Kilcruit in the Champion Bumper at this meeting. She has run well all season and would have played a big hand in the finish had she not fallen last time out.

Selection: Grangee

5.30 Cheltenham, 3m2f Kim Muir Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase

I originally liked Ain’t That A Shame in the Kim Muir, but the testing conditions and step up in trip won’t suit him. If he wins and I don’t have a penny on, it won’t be the best end to Thursday’s card! 

One horse that will like the ground is the Gordon Elliott-trained Frontal Assault, who relished 3m and a bog at Navan when he won a Grade 3 hurdle last spring. The ground wasn’t right for him in last year’s Martin Pipe, yet he still ran well for a long way, or for his three runs this year in Ireland.

Now upped from 2m5f to 3m2f and running on ideal soft ground, Frontal Assault is the horse to beat under Rob James.

Selection: Frontal Assault

Recommended bets:

Galopin Des Champs @ 2.16
Dunboyne @ 9.4
Allaho @ 1.73
Klassical Dream @ 5.3
Grand Paradis @ 9.6
Grangee @ 10
Frontal Assault @ 6.4