Cheltenham Festival Tips: Tom Collins provides a race-by-race guide for day two

One day down, three to go. The home team got off to a great start with Edwardstone’s Arkle victory capping an unexpected British-dominated beginning to the 2022 Cheltenham festival. Unexpected in these quarters, at least! Hopefully you backed a few winners on Tuesday and therefore ready for Wednesday’s seven-race card. SBK tipster Tom Collins offers up his analysis and tips.

1.30 Cheltenham, 2m5f Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle

I was exceptionally sad to see Willie Mullins declare Sir Gerhard for the Ballymore instead of the Supreme on Tuesday. That’s not because this is the wrong race for him, as many on social media insinuated. He won a 3m point-to-point before switching to Willie Mullins and has a running style that strongly suggests he will continue to devour the ground over this trip.

Instead, I’m scared that he’s going to ruin my main ante-post bet. I backed the Henry De Bromhead-trained Journey With Me for the 2022 Ballymore this time last year in the hope that he would be trained to fill the void that Bob Olinger would leave as he moved into open company. 

Everything has gone swimmingly in the interim, quite surprisingly for a long-range ante-post play! Journey With Me has won both starts this term by decisive margins and he’s beaten no back numbers in doing so. Most notably, Champion Bumper runner-up Kilcruit and the Grade 1-placed Minella Crooner succumbed to his authority at Leopardstown over Christmas.

I’m sitting on a tasty price, but my confidence has been hit for six by the inclusion of Sir Gerhard, who has the experience edge and prior festival form. Nevertheless, Journey With Me remains the value play and hopefully he can fend off his more proven rival.

Selection: Journey With Me

2.10 Cheltenham, 3m½f Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase

I promise that this will be the last time that I mention Willie Mullins’ decisions in this tipping column, but the master of Closutton has left me perplexed by not running Galopin Des Champs in this race. This trip would have been right up his alley, as proven by his Grade 1 novice hurdle victory at Punchestown last April, and he would have been a strong favourite against two British rivals.

However, Mullins, who knows more than me about race planning, has opted for the Turners on Thursday. That leaves a wide-open Brown Advisory heat that is headed by Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase winner Bravemansgame, who has looked unstoppable in four chase starts this season.

He jumps fantastically on the whole, but can land heavily on his front legs and I have a crazy theory that the third-last fence may cause him an issue. Furthermore, Bob Olinger made him look pedestrian in last year’s Ballymore, which leads me to believe that he’s far from a certainty here.

Capodanno and Beacon Edge catch the eye for Ireland, but narrow preference is for L’Homme Presse, who I was fortunate to watch in person at Sandown when he blew away four rivals in the Scilly Isles. He jumped far better on his prior start at Cheltenham and the return to this left-handed venue will bring about further improvement. He’s a tentative pick in a tricky contest.

Selection: L’Homme Presse

2.50 Cheltenham, 2m5f Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle

The Coral Cup has been the bookmaker’s friend over the last ten years (average-priced winner in that period is just over 18-1) and a maximum field of 26 runners is scheduled to go to post this time around. 

Indigo Breeze, Tronador and Grand Roi are worthy of a second look, but I prefer the chances of the Pat Fahy-trained Drop The Anchor. This eight-year-old has been far from prolific in his career, winning just four of his 21 starts, but he has plundered a couple of huge pots at Listowel and Leopardstown in the last two years and must have been aimed here.

Drop The Anchor has only been seen three times since May last year. He had a spin on the flat in the autumn and ran nicely to take third after a slow start, before needing the outing in a Grade 3 at Ascot just before Christmas. That might have been a ploy to get his handicap mark down, and the same can be said for his never-nearer fifth at Leopardstown last month.

Suprise Package, who finished ninth in that event, bolted up in the Imperial Cup last Saturday and Drop The Anchor appears similarly well-treated off a mark of 143.

Selection: Drop The Anchor

3.30 Cheltenham, 2m Queen Mother Champion Chase

Shishkin vs Energumene 2. That’s how Eddie Hearn would bill it, anyway. The pair produced a thrilling finish to the SBK Clarence House Chase at Ascot in January and now renew their rivalry in the Champion Chase. The slightly shorter trip should suit the latter, though the Cheltenham hill will undoubtedly help Shishkin. 

I can’t see a form reversal from that day. Shishkin jumped poorly (he took off from his wrong leg on a number of occasions), while Energumene had everything go his way and still couldn’t beat his Nicky Henderson-trained rival. Shishkin deserves favouritism in the Champion Chase and will be the banker of the week for many. He’s unbeaten in 11 completed starts, after all.

Of course, this isn’t a two-horse race. Last year’s winner Put The Kettle On and 2020 hero Politologue need to improve on their performances so far this season but they have the back-class to be competitive. Envoi Allen has been largely disappointing since he has gone chasing, while I remain convinced that Chacun Pour Soi quits once he’s put under pressure. Therefore, Nube Negra might be the best of the rest.

Selection: Shishkin

4.10 Cheltenham, 3m6f Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase

There is no denying that the Cross Country Chase provides a great spectacle - very few races are like it. But, as much as I enjoy watching the eight-minute contest, this is not a heat that I want to get stuck into.

However, I know plenty of you do and Tiger Roll will be the one of the most common names added to betslips across the whole Cheltenham festival. Successful in this race in 2018, 2019 and 2021, and a dual winner of the Grand National, Tiger Roll is the epitome of a fan favourite. Unfortunately this is the last time that we will see him on a racecourse, so it would be nice to see the most famous jumps horse in training go out on a high.

From a punting point of view, I struggle to see the value in backing a relatively short-priced 12-year-old who has had a pretty questionable campaign. A more appealing proposition is Shady Operator, a two-time winner over the banks at Punchestown who narrowly failed to hold off the reopposing Midnight Maestro on unsuitable ground last time.

Selection: Shady Operator

4.50 Cheltenham, 2m Grand Annual Challenge Cup

This is another wide-open betting heat. Buddy Rich, who wasn’t beaten far by Grade 1 chaser Third Time Lucki at this track earlier in the year, has been saved for better ground and is a major player. Similar comments apply to stablemate Andy Dufresne and the well-handicapped Il Ridoto, but I can’t overlook last year’s favourite Embittered.

The Joseph O’Brien-trained eight-year-old was sent off as the 9-2 jolly in this event last year off a mark of 146. He travelled beautifully in mid-division throughout the early portion of the race before unseating Rachael Blackmore at the ninth fence. 

Good ground is his want and he was regularly seen on the racetrack throughout the summer months, notching victories at Killarney and Punchestown on the way, but he’s been kept fresh since the start of December and can be forgiven his comeback fifth in Grade 1 company last month. He’s able to race off 1lb lower than last season and is my idea of the most likely winner granted a clear round.

Selection: Embittered

5.30 Cheltenham, 2m½f Weatherbys Champion Bumper

Facile Vega, American Mike and Redemption Day all have the potential to become leading lights over hurdles next season, but which one will come out on top in the Champion Bumper? Or is there a dark horse in the pack? The answer to the latter question is probably, though they will have to be extremely classy to snatch this race away from the market protagonists. 

Perhaps the best place to start is American Mike, who is unbeaten in two starts under rules and is yet to come out of third gear. Clearly ground versatile and having performed to a mark in the 130s, he doesn’t need to improve much to win an average running of this race.

His main opponents hail from Willie Mullins’ Closutton base. Redemption Day has been the talking horse over the last few weeks, but he has far more to prove than stable companion Facile Vega, who is first foal of Cheltenham festival wondermare Quevega. His bumper win at Leopardstown last month was mouth-watering and a similar display would make him tough to beat. As a result, he is the most likely winner of the finale.

Selection: Facile Vega

Recommended bets:

Journey With Me @ 9.6
L’Homme Presse @ 4.8
Drop The Anchor @ 12
Shishkin @ 1.94
Shady Operator @ 14
Embittered @ 11.5
Facile Vega @ 2.6