Cheltenham Festival Tips: Tom Collins provides a race-by-race guide for day one

It is finally here. The meeting that we have all been waiting for. I hope you’re ready to back some winners? SBK tipster Tom Collins provides analysis and his tip for all seven races on the first day of the 2022 Cheltenham festival.

1.30 Cheltenham, 2m Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

The Supreme has been the race on everyone’s lips throughout the winter and, although only nine runners have been confirmed (second smallest field in the last ten years), the major clash between Irish runaway Dysart Dynamo and the Nicky Henderson-trained pair, Constitution Hill and Jonbon, is on.

It is very easy to draw comparisons between the 2016 Supreme, in which Altior outstayed stable companion Buveur D’Air (third) and the brilliant Willie Mullins-trained Min (second) up the hill, and this year’s edition. However, Mullins will be hoping to go one place better than six years ago with Dysart Dynamo, who is yet to come out of cruise control in four Irish starts.

Boasting a huge stride and high cruising speed, Dysart Dynamo is the Energumene of the novice hurdle division and will set his stall out early under Paul Townend, who partnered him to success for the first time in the Grade 2 Moscow Flyer at Punchestown in January. Aggressive tactics have worked a treat in this race in recent years and they may not see which way he goes. Don’t forget that Mullins has won the Cheltenham opener five times in the last nine years.

Little splits Constitution Hill and Jonbon on figures, but both have questions to answer in the Supreme. The former has recorded two victories on deep ground and is yet unproven on a faster surface, while Jonbon had to work far harder than expected at Haydock when last seen and failed to change his leads in the closing stages. Nicky Henderson is just 10-70 with his runners since the start of February.

Selection: Dysart Dynamo @ 3.5

2.10 Cheltenham, 2m Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase

There is no question that the Alan King-trained Edwardstone deserves to head the market for this year’s Arkle. He has taken to chasing like a duck to water and would have been five-from-five this term if he wasn’t brought down at the fourth-last fence at Warwick on his seasonal reappearance. 

He has run to a mark of 164 in each of his last three races, which is around 5lb short of what is normally required to win an Arkle, so he’s no ‘good thing’ despite warranting favouritism. Blue Lord and Riviere D’Etel, who finished first and second respectively in the Irish Arkle, don’t have much to find on figures. While further improvement is likely from five-year-olds Haut En Couleurs and Saint Sam.

However, the value play in the race is the Henry de Bromhead-trained Coeur Sublime, who has been rejuvenated this season after struggling in open company over hurdles. Second in the 2019 Triumph Hurdle at this track, Coeur Sublime pushed Ferny Hollow, who would have been favourite for this race if he hadn’t sustained an injury, on his seasonal reappearance and was never put into the contest on his penultimate outing. 

I loved his finishing effort at Gowran Park last time, albeit in a race that he had to win, and he appears to be on a sharp upward trajectory. Quicker conditions will suit him well and he’s been overlooked in the market.

Selection: Coeur Sublime @ 17

2.50 Cheltenham, 3m1f Ultima Handicap Chase

Ain’t That A Shame was my original fancy for this race, but De Bromhead has opted to run him in the Kim Muir on Thursday instead. As per usual, the Ultima has attracted a competitive field and the Brits will hope to get a winner on the board here - this is a race that the home challenge has farmed in recent years (last Irish-trained victor was Dun Diore in 2006).

Topweight Frodon and bottomweight Gericault Roque are interesting for different reasons, but haven’t been done any favours by the handicapper. Neither has Our Power, who will race from 2lb out of the weights, but he’s been prepped for this event and wasn’t beaten too far in a similar contest at Kempton last month.

The 3m1f trip shouldn’t hold any worries for Our Power, despite the fact that he regularly runs over shorter distances, and accurate jumping will stand him in good stead.

Selection: Our Power @ 17

3.30 Cheltenham, 2m Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy

Sometimes analysts and punters try too hard to overlook the obvious result, and this year’s Champion Hurdle could be the prime example. Shouts of ‘Appreciate It!’ have been heard at festival previews over the last few weeks, but it would be a monumental performance by last year’s Supreme winner if he was to deny Honeysuckle a second consecutive victory in this race.

Honeysuckle is unbeaten in 14 starts; has won twice at Cheltenham and is ground and speed versatile. She couldn’t have been more impressive in this race last year and six of the last nine favourites have won the Champion Hurdle. The only thing that could possibly put you off is her price.

But in a division that lacks serious depth, opposing Honeysuckle for win purposes appears foolish. Granted, she ran 6lb below her best when last seen in the Irish Champion Hurdle, but even that performance would be good enough to beat her rivals in this field.

Selection: Honeysuckle @ 1.64

4.10 Cheltenham, 2m4f Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle

If Honeysuckle crosses the line in front in the preceding Champion Hurdle, there might be a gamble on stable companion Telmesomethinggirl, who is also owned by Kenneth Alexander, for the Mares’ Hurdle. She justified strong market support in the mares’ novice at the festival last year and seems to have been targeted at this race since.

However, this year’s efforts don’t justify her position at the head of the market and, although she could easily bounce back to her best, I have to take her on in a strong renewal of this race. 

Mrs Milner, who left me speechless when she stormed to victory in last year’s Pertemps Final, is my idea of the value for trainer Paul Nolan. She made her mark of 134 look ridiculous 12 months ago and made a successful reappearance in a Listed event at Limerick. Mark up her effort against the boys in the Long Distance Hurdle last time and she should find this much easier.

Selection: Mrs Milner @ 14.5

4.50 Cheltenham, 2m½f Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

Gaelic Warrior might go off the shortest-priced Boodles favourite in history judged by his fanbase on social media. The Willie Mullins-trained four-year-old is winless after three starts, but he is held in such high regard that an opening mark of 129 is deemed to have drastically underestimated his talent. Nevertheless, I won’t be touching him with a barge pole at those odds.

I fully expect the Irish to saddle the first three or four home here and the standout might be HMS Seahorse, who is available at a double-figure price. This son of Galileo was rated 83 on the flat for Aidan O’Brien before switching yards, and has made an instant impression over hurdles.

He wasn’t beaten far by Pied Piper and Vauban (first and second favourite for the Triumph) on his debut in the sphere and was given too much to do on his next start at Punchestown. I loved how he rallied under pressure to beat a subsequent winner last time up and a mark of 128 seems fair.

Selection: HMS Seahorse @ 14.5

5.30 Cheltenham, 3m6f Ukraine Appeal National Hunt Novices’ Chase

A small, largely Irish-trained, field will go to post for the closing National Hunt Chase on day one the 2022 Cheltenham festival. Run Wild Fred has been well-found in the market for this race since his Troytown Handicap win in November and gets the assistance of Jamie Codd, which is a huge positive.

However, I love Stattler in this spot. This seven-year-old is in the mould of Rathvinden, who won this race in 2018, and has been crying out for a step up in trip to test his stamina. 

He has already shown in class and speed this season with victories over an inadequate 2m5f and 3m1f, and he wasn’t beaten too far in Grade 1 company over hurdles by the talented Galopin Des Champs last year. He’s my nap on day one.

Selection: Stattler @ 3.6

Recommended bets:

Dysart Dynamo @ 3.5
Coeur Sublime @ 17
Our Power @ 17
Honeysuckle @ 1.64
Mrs Milner @ 14.5
HMS Seahorse @ 14.5
Stattler @ 3.6