British Champions Day Betting Tips: Tom Collins pinpoints five worthwhile bets

It’s time to celebrate our best flat horses as Qipco British Champions Day has arrived. This column is a long one, so please buckle in for some analysis!

Before we get into selections, it’s key to note that the ground was described as 'soft' on both the straight and round course at the time of writing on Thursday afternoon and there is further rain forecast on Saturday morning. That should keep the ground testing enough despite all of Ascot’s endeavours. 

The card begins with the Group 2 Long Distance Cup (1.20 Ascot), which plays host to the horse who many will consider to be the banker of the day. He goes by the name of Kyprios - I’m sure you’ve heard of him by now - and I’m very much on his side. I would normally try to avoid odds-on selections in my column, especially one as obvious as this, but I wanted to preview most races and I also still think there is some juice in his price.

It is a common misconception among punters that 'getting value' equals big-priced plays. That is not true. Value comes by taking bigger prices than the SP and therefore giving yourself a margin over the bookmaker. Surely Kyprios will be the recipient of a fair wedge of cash leading up to the race and go off shorter than the current 4/5 offered? If you agree with me, then there’s value here.

Kyprios has been untouchable this year for Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore with six victories from six starts, four of which have come in Group 1 company, and he always hints that he has more to give thanks to his lazy running style. He has been that way throughout his whole career which is probably why he takes his racing so well.

On this year’s form, nothing should really get close to him. He should love the ground, too. The only chink in his armour looks to be his defeat in this contest last year to the reopposing Trawlerman, but it’s key to remember that Kyprios suffered a horrendous that caused him to miss almost a year and that was just his second run back. He won’t be lacking in fitness this time and he’s probably improved, so I’m pretty confident that we’ll see him get the job done.

Now we move onto the trickier affairs, starting with the Group 1 Champions Sprint (1.55 Ascot). I want to bet a horse with proven stamina over seven furlongs despite this race being run over a furlong shorter, that is due to the stiff nature of the straight track at Ascot coupled with the sapping ground. The market seems to agree as 2022 winner Kinross and Sprint Cup winner Montassib head the betting.

I prefer Montassib out of the two and he’s going to be my bet. William Haggas has campaigned him brilliantly this term - sticking to six furlongs and moving up from Listed level to strike in a Group 1 last time out. Despite him being a six-year-old now, it feels like we’re only just beginning to see Montassib’s best efforts.

I love how he ran down Kinross in the Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle two starts back and the ground at Haydock probably wasn’t soft enough for him last time, yet he still got the job done with a withering late surge. This course and distance should suit him perfectly and Montassib should go very close in what should be an exciting race.

Let’s move onto the Champion Fillies & Mares Stakes (2.35 Ascot) now. Kalpana opened up a very short 7/4 shot after declarations were made on Thursday morning and I made a point of saying that it wasn’t reflective of her chance in the SBK podcast. Albeit she’s the horse to beat on ratings with her weight-for-age allowance, she doesn’t have enough in hand to warrant a 36% market stranglehold.

In the process of writing this article, she has drifted out to 11/4 which is much more accurate. I still don’t want to bet Kalpana, but I wouldn’t be surprised if she ran well and that price is a little less insulting to the punter's intelligence.

That being said, I’m going to take an each-way shot at the race with Village Voice, who took a big step forward when encountering testing ground over 1m4f last time out. Jessica Harrington and Cristian Demuro are a pretty enticing combination and I believe this filly is being overlooked in the market at her current 16/1.

Village Voice’s form figures on ground described as ‘soft’ or worse read 13121341, and she wasn’t beaten far by the very talented White Birch in one of those defeats. The stumbling block here is that she has to give 6lb to her younger rivals, but she’s a big enough price to warrant an each-way play.

Next up is the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (3.15 Ascot) and, unlike the aforementioned Kalpana’s early price, I have no issue with Charyn dominating the market. He’s one of the best flat horses we’ve seen this season and arguably should be undefeated given his rider gave talented front-runners too much rope in the Lockinge (Audience) and Prix du Moulin (Tribalist).

I wouldn’t criticise anyone who defaults onto Charyn and bets him to win, but I’m going to look at an each-way alternative again in the form of Facteur Cheval, who finished a good second in this race last year. This horse loves deep ground and he’s been kept fresh with this being the end-of-season plan.

We saw the real Facteur Cheval on his seasonal reappearance in Meydan, where he achieved a career-best by taking the Dubai Turf. Unfortunately he hasn’t backed that up in two subsequent outings, but he was given a poor ride at Royal Ascot when he raced on the worst part of the ground that day, then conditions were far too quick for him last time out. We should see a different horse on Saturday.

Finally, we get to the Champion Stakes (3.55 Ascot) and the match race between Calandagan and Economics - an absolute thriller with two top-quality three-year-olds clashing heads in front of the packed stands. I’m hyped for this.

Economics gets my vote, purely because I believe he’s had a slightly less taxing season and that he has more improvement to come than Calandagan, though I respect that rival greatly. William Haggas has stated this has been the target for Economics since he won the Dante, and deep ground will be absolutely fine for him. 

His victory in the Irish Champion Stakes last time required guts and determination, but he seems to only do enough when getting in front and leaves me believing there is more under the bonnet. Haggas has freshened him up with a 35-day break and hopefully he can fend off the French challenger to end the day on a high. 

Saturday’s Horse Racing Tips

Kyprios (1.20 Ascot) @ 4/5
Montassib (1.55 Ascot) @ 6/1 each-way
Village Voice (2.35 Ascot) @ 16/1 each-way
Facteur Cheval (3.15 Ascot) @ 9/1 each-way
Economics (3.55 Ascot) @ 15/8