Breeders' Cup Saturday Tips: Who is Tom Collins backing at Keeneland?

If Friday’s Breeders’ Cup card can be described as the starter, Saturday’s mouth-watering nine race talent splash is certainly worthy of main course and dessert status. Buckle up because Keeneland’s about to flaunt the best this sport has to offer.

Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (3.50)

Saturday’s show kicks off particularly early - make sure you switch over pronto after Aintree’s finale! - with the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, which will be run over seven furlongs on the main track.

It’s worth noting that there is a long three-furlong run-up to the first bend over this trip at Keeneland, so you should put more emphasis on tactical speed - the ability to find the most beneficial position to earn the cleanest passage while racing efficiently.

This race certainly doesn’t lack early pace. New Mexico-bred Slammed is sure to be sent forward from the inside gate, while Hot Peppers is set to burn to the front under Junior Alvarado. Add in Edgeway and Echo Zulu, who is drawn in the car park in gate 13, and it seems extremely possible that they will be trapping along through the early stages.

That should suit ante-post favourite Goodnight Olive, who has won five of her six starts for Chad Brown, and last year’s winner Ce Ce, both of whom have tactical speed and will sit in mid-division. They are clearly logical players, but the former is being pitched in deep waters for the first time and represents little value, while Ce Ce disappointed in her sole Keeneland outing and has generally performed best in small fields.

I’m going to take a shot at a deep closer in Obligatory. Bill Mott’s four-year-old will be in the final pair going down the backstraight, but she is exceptionally talented and does her best running late when the leaders have cried enough. Her Grade 1 victory at Churchill in May was super impressive and she wasn’t favoured by conditions last time in the Ballerina at Saratoga. She’s overpriced at 10/1.

Selection: Obligatory @ 10/1

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (5.10)

I’ll be bypassing the Turf Sprint (4.29) in favour of the following Dirt Mile (5.10) as value looks to be at a premium in the former contest. 

Cody’s Wish deserves to be Dirt Mile favourite on the back of a sparkling effort in the Grade 1 Forego, in which he beat the brilliant Jackie’s Warrior. It was a clear career-best for this son of Curlin, who has now won six of his last seven races, but he is yet to replicate the form around two turns.

There’s a short run to the first bend in this race - watch out for early scrimmaging - and that could suit those ridden prominently. Many punters will opt for the game Gunite, but I prefer the chances of outsider Pipeline, who finished third behind Cody’s Wish in the aforementioned Forego last time out.

Despite being readily put in his place, it’s almost impossible to not mark up the performance of Chad Brown’s runner given he was the only horse to put it up to Jackie’s Warrior throughout the first few furlongs. They went hammer and tongs for much of that contest and, although he couldn’t match the top two in the final furlong, he certainly didn’t wave the white flag. 

Pipeline could get pace pressure once again, but he’s not facing a horse as fast as Jackie’s Warrior in this field. From a handy draw in stall three, expect Flavien Prat to make a beeline for the rail to give his mount the best possible chance of causing an all-the-way upset. I’d be surprised if he didn’t give a good showing at a huge price.

Selection: Pipeline @ 16/1

Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (5.50)

Despite Chad Brown boasting an abundance of talent in the turf ranks, his offering is not good enough to compete with the European challengers in the Filly & Mare Turf year-on-year. Six of the last nine winners of this race have shipped in from overseas, including James Fanshawe’s Audarya, who won the 2020 edition over this course and distance.

This year’s renewal isn’t very deep and only two horses interest me - Tuesday and Nashwa. The former may benefit for the switch to firm ground, but she was readily put in her place by John and Thady Gosden’s runner in the Prix de l’Opera and a form reversal seems unlikely.

Tuesday (navy): won the Oaks at Epsom earlier this year

Nashwa is the clear standout if she can replicate her English and French form in the US. That’s not a given, but she won on good to firm on her seasonal reappearance and has drawn nicely in stall three. Expect a mid-division early sit, before Hollie Doyle makes her move rounding the homebend.

Selection: Nashwa @ 2/1

Breeders’ Cup Sprint (6.30)

From one standout to the next as Jackie’s Warrior should be extremely difficult to beat in the Sprint. 

This colt has been electric throughout his career - he has won 12 of his 17 lifetime starts - but is yet to add an all-important Breeders’ Cup victory to his resume. Jackie’s Warrior finished fourth in the 2020 Juvenile and only sixth in this race last year, both times he was sent off odds-on. However, I believe that to be merely coincidental.

Despite his Breeders’ Cup failings, very few horses are as consistent as Jackie’s Warrior and the likely pace set-up sees Steve Asmussen’s colt earning an easy lead. If that projection becomes reality, it’s almost impossible to see any of his rivals pegging him back. When asked for a banker earlier this week, Jackie’s Warrior was my answer.

Selection: Jackie’s Warrior @ 5/6

Breeders’ Cup Mile (7.10)

Charlie Appleby has farmed North American Graded stakes races over the last couple of years and he will look to plunder two prizes on Saturday. The first of which is the Mile, where he runs Modern Games, the subject of controversy at Del Mar last year when he ran for prize-money alone after being mistakenly withdrawn and then reinstated. 

I like his chances for back-to-back Breeders’ Cup victories and also believe 3/1, which is widely available at the time of writing, is perfectly fair. This son of Dubawi loves fast ground and stunned me in last year’s Juvenile Turf, where he rounded the field and scooted clear for a comfortable success. 

Modern Games: bids to maintain his unbeaten North American record

Appleby decided to send Modern Games on another trip to North America in September and his three-year-old paid for the air miles with another striking win, this time in the Grade 1 Woodbine Mile. It was a little bit surprising that he journeyed back to England for a crack at the QEII last month, but he ran well there and has previously given no indication that globetrotting could leave its mark. 

He faces an above average US group - Regal Glory is a fantastic mare, Ivar performs well at this track and Domestic Spending is interesting off the layoff - but Modern Games should prove superior.

Selection: Modern Games @ 3/1

Breeders’ Cup Distaff (7.55)

By this point in the night, horse racing fans will be cracking open a beverage as the clock ticks closer to Flightline’s day with destiny in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but don’t overlook the quality in this year’s Distaff - it’s one heck of a race!

To put it into context for the British audience, imagine watching Enable v Sea Of Class v Magical when they were all in their prime. The US dirt version is Nest v Malathaat v Clairiere - and they are set to face off on the biggest stage once again.

Malathaat is probably the most talented horse in this field. Todd Pletcher’s four-year-old filly has won nine of her 13 starts, including five Grade 1s, and is also unbeaten in three starts at Keeneland. She only finished third in this race last year at Del Mar, but suffered a pretty torrid trip and perhaps should have won. Now she looks to make amends. The only issue is that she’s drawn the inside gate, which is likely to cause plenty of issues.

Malathaat is a grinder - she just keeps rolling once she’s asked for maximum effort - and there is a strong possibility that this starting berth will force her to go wide or cause significant traffic problems. I believe the Keeneland factor is enough to see her to beat her old foe Clairiere, but Nest is a completely different proposition.

Nest has won seven of her ten starts, including her sole outing here in the 2020 Grade 1 Ashland, and couldn’t have been more impressive in the Alabama Stakes at Saratoga in August.

She was given the perfect prep in the Grade 2 Beldame against notably inferior opposition, and crucially boasts tactical speed that will enable her to sit close to a likely steady pace. Irad Ortiz could win this race in the first furlong.

Selection: Nest @ 13/8

Breeders’ Cup Turf (8.40)

Since Daylami’s 1999 victory, how many US winners have there been in the Turf? The answer: just six.

Europe has utterly dominated this race and, despite the odd home runner causing a shock, I believe the trend will continue this time around. In fact, the only US-based horse I gave a second look is War Like Goddess, who is an exceptional talent but faces a tougher task against the boys.

John and Thady Gosden’s Mishriff would be the most logical winner if he bounces back to his best, but that’s no guarantee and he jumps from gate 11. The negatives outweigh the positive with him. As such, it’s probably wise to focus on Charlie Appleby’s pair and I much prefer Rebel’s Romance over Nations Pride, despite the latter boasting US form. 

Rebel’s Romance must be one of the most underrated horses in Britain right now, largely due to the majority of his success coming overseas. Successful in the 2021 UAE Derby, as well as two German Group 1s, Rebel’s Romance travels abroad again to try and retain his unbeaten turf record (4/4). 

This four-year-old has been held up in his last handful of races, but he clearly boasts a ton of early zip and should get a nice trip from gate five with plenty of speed inside. Fast ground and the 1m4f trip cause no concerns, while James Doyle will be keen to record a first career US Grade 1 winner. He has the horsepower under him to do just that.

Selection: Rebel’s Romance @ 7/2

Breeders’ Cup Classic (9.40)

Finally, the big one. The Classic will bring the 2022 Breeders’ Cup to an end, and what a way to bow out.

The brilliant Flightline - the best horse in the world - will look to maintain his unbeaten record after virtually wiping the floor with all 26 rivals he has faced in five career starts. He has looked like a different breed in his short but sublime career and rightly blew everyone’s socks off with a 19-and-a-quarter-length victory in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic last time.

Flightline will be sent off around 2/5 to win the Classic and it would take a brave punter to oppose him, despite the fact he faces his biggest challenge to date on a track he hasn’t encountered aside from morning works. I think he’ll win, but whether or not he duels with Life Is Good early will determine how easily he does it. 

Flightline: unbeaten colt looks to win the Breeders' Cup Classic for trainer John Sadler

Putting up a long odds-on shot in a tipping piece doesn’t seem right, so I’ve opted to find an each-way alternative. The strategy is: enjoy Flightline, but earn a better return for reduced stake.

I’m pretty convinced that the aforementioned Life Is Good doesn’t stay this trip. He’s extremely talented on his day, but he’s a miler who has been forced into the Classic due to his ability. The only shot he has at winning is by grinding Flightline into submission early on, but that’s not likely to happen and he could fall on his own sword by weakening out of the money in the closing stages.

Travers and Jim Dandy winner Epicenter is the most likely to benefit from the early speed and could run into second late on, but the market has that option covered. As a result, I’ll be looking at Taiba to squeak into the three for Bob Baffert, who has won this race four times in the last eight years.

This son of Gun Runner produced a strong-staying performance in the Penn Derby last time which hinted that there is plenty more to come, especially over this kind of trip. I also loved his recent 6f work at Santa Anita.

Taiba has an enticing mix of speed and stamina and, although I don’t believe he’s anywhere near as good as Flightline, he could be well positioned to take advantage of other faltering rivals late in the day. At a double-figure price, he can end the night with a tasty each-way return.

Selection: Taiba @ 12/1

Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tips

Obligatory (3.50 Keeneland) - 1pt each-way @ 10/1
Pipeline (5.10 Keeneland) - 1pt each-way @ 16/1
Nashwa (5.50 Keeneland) - 1pt win @ 2/1
Jackie’s Warrior (6.30 Keeneland) - 3pts win @ 5/6
Modern Games (7.10 Keeneland) - 1pt win @ 3/1
Nest (7.55 Keeneland) - 1pt win @ 13/8
Rebel’s Romance (8.40 Keeneland) - 2pts win @ 7/2
Taiba (9.40 Keeneland) - 1pt each-way @ 12/1

In case you missed them, you can view Tom's Breeders' Cup Friday Tips here!