Breeders' Cup Friday Tips: Don't miss Tom Collins' race-by-race selections

Keeneland will play host to the 2022 Breeders’ Cup - a two-day extravaganza that showcases the best equine talents that the US and Europe has to offer on dirt and turf.

It feels like a lifetime ago that we were admiring the talents of Knicks Go, Yibir, Golden Pal and Loves Only You at Del Mar. A lot has changed in the last 12 months, but six 2021 Breeders’ Cup winners will attempt to back-up their West Coast victories as they ship to Lexington, Kentucky, for what promises to be an exceptional couple of days.

Much of the hype surrounds Flightline - John Sadler’s unbeaten colt who will look to retain his unbeaten record in a mouth-watering Breeders’ Cup Classic on Saturday. I’ll talk about his chance of doing just that, as well as analysing that race in full, in tomorrow’s column. But, first, let’s get stuck into Friday’s action when plenty of future stars will take to the stage.

The 2022 Breeders’ Cup begins with the Juvenile Turf Sprint (7.00), which has been won by Wesley Ward for the last three years. His sole representative this year is Love Reigns, a lightly raced filly who has drawn the perfect stall in gate two and will be heavily punted by the US public.

It’s not hard to make a case for her - she sparkled on debut over this course and distance in the spring and won her most recent race with consummate ease. Those victories sandwich a fourth-placed finish in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot - a good performance given US raiders had a torrid week this year.

Front-runners have performed notably well in this race since the inaugural running in 2018 and she will likely be close to the pace, but there is also speed out wide from Tyler’s Tribe, Speed Boat Beach and The Platinum Queen, who has drawn notably badly. I expect this field to be rolling along early and it could set up for a closer.

Charlie Appleby’s Mischief Magic deserves a second look and was the last off my shortlist, but I narrowly prefer the chances of Dramatised, who beat Love Reigns in the aforementioned Queen Mary before disappointing when upped in trip in the Lowther. Karl Burke has kept her off the track since (barring a Southwell racecourse gallop before shipping over to the US) and I love this spot for her.

She possesses a load of natural speed and should be able to sit close to the rail and front-runners from stall four. Any kind of pace collapse would see her have first crack at glory. Ryan Moore’s booking is positive, and a return to her Ascot form would give her outstanding claims.

Dramatised (silver): beat Love Reigns (yellow and brown) in the Queen Mary

We switch from the turf to dirt for the following Juvenile Fillies (7.40), which is perhaps the best punting heat of the evening. This race is run over a mile and a sixteenth (a mile and half a furlong to British readers!) and has a particular short run to the first turn, so early speed can prove crucial in gaining the best possible position. It’s also worth noting that the main track at Keeneland has favoured speed horses throughout the fall meet, and this race is run to the first wire, meaning there isn’t much time to make a move in the homestraight.

I want to have two fillies on my betslip this year. The first is Grand Love, which is more of a tactical play than anything else. Steve Asmussen’s two-year-old wowed onlookers on debut at Saratoga in August before posting a sub-par effort in the Grade 3 Pocohontas, a key trial for this race, at Churchill. 

She ran a bad race that day and a similar effort gives her no chance here, but there are reasons to believe she can bounce back. It was only her second career outing, she only had three weeks off the track after her first run and her recent works have been much more like it. Asmussen holds this filly in the highest regard and she crucially possesses early speed, enough to help her gain an advantage by leading this race.

I also want to back Chop Chop, who I believe is the most talented filly in the line-up. Her first two career starts came on turf before trainer Brad Cox re-routed her to the Alcibiades, the leading trial over this course and distance. 

She ran a great race after a slow break and early interference, and shaped better than eventual winner Wonder Wheel and third-placed finisher Raging Sea, both of whom had favourable trips. She’s going to need luck again given her running style, but a smooth passage would make her tough to beat.

Next up is the Juvenile Fillies Turf (8.20), which has been dominated by US trainees since the Charlie Hills-trained Chrisellium won back in 2013. Despite boasting a bunch of enticing form figures, I don’t think the home contingent is that strong this time around (Be Your Best and Xigera might be the best) and instead want to side with a European challenger.

Midnight Mile is an interesting runner and has to figure in the shake-up, but her wide draw was enough to put me off in favour of market leader Meditate. 

This filly has shown Group 1 talent since day dot and has done remarkably well to maintain a high level of form throughout the year. She has tactical speed - she has led twice and raced prominently on her other four outings - and is undoubtedly the horse to beat coming into the race. 

Her draw (gate 10) isn’t ideal, but there’s speed directly inside (Delight, drawn in nine) and she could tack across as that rival heads to the rail. I have no ground concerns as she’s by US sire No Nay Never, and I like that Aidan O’Brien has given her 41 days off the track since her last start.

The highlight on Friday is the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (9.00), a leading trial for the following season's Kentucky Derby. Let’s keep this one super simple: this race revolves around Cave Rock. 

Bob Baffert’s two-year-old, a $550,000 son of the brilliant Arrogate, has stood out as the overwhelming leader of this division since he won the Grade 1 Runhappy Del Mar Futurity on his second career outing. He then backed up that victory with another success in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita, where he posted a sharp time and put on a blistering visual display. 

A month ago I was debating whether to back Cave Rock or Loggins in this race, but the subsequent defection of the latter leaves me just one option. I’m happy to take the short price - he’ll be even shorter come the off, as I was trying to allude to in a poll that I ran on Twitter earlier this week - and I expect him to win, granted a clean break.

Modern Games: won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf last year for Charlie Appleby

If Cave Rock proves successful, many punters will play up their winnings in Friday’s finale, the Juvenile Turf (9.40). Charlie Appleby has won this race with Line Of Duty (2018) and Modern Games (2021) in recent years, and will look to notch a hat-trick courtesy of Silver Knott, who is the standout candidate on what he’s shown in England this year.

Very few of his rivals are capable of matching his performance in the Group 3 Autumn Stakes at Newmarket last time out, and the probability of victory here is increased by post position four. However, he’s just a touch on the short side for me in a race that could get messy early. He’s the logical winner, but not the value play.

Making a case for a prominent racer is pretty tough in this contest - Gaslight Dancer, Curly Larry And Mo and Nagirroc all have to improve to play a part - so it could go to the closer with the cleanest trip.

I’m siding with Chad Brown’s I’m Very Busy, who shouldn’t be anywhere near as big as the current 12/1 on offer. 

This son of Cloud Computing - a horse that Brown did very well with on the racetrack - produced a huge late burst to close off slow fractions on his debut at Saratoga, and was consequently sent off odds-on to win the Grade 2 Pilgrim on his second start. I’m Very Busy was given a patient ride by Flavien Prat before sauntering up five-wide on the bend, only to succumb in a late battle against the game Major Dude.

He wasn’t ridden overly efficiently that day and the yielding track might have hindered his turn of foot, so I expect a much better effort here. He should be second or third favourite - I made him 5/1 - so I’ll happily squeeze as much each-way juice out of this double-figure price as possible.

Breeders’ Cup Friday Tips

Dramatised (7.00 Keeneland, Juvenile Turf Sprint) - 1pt each-way @ 9/1
Chop Chop (7.40 Keeneland, Juvenile Fillies) - 1pt win @ 6/1
Grand Love (7.40 Keeneland, Juvenile Fillies) - 1pt win @ 16/1
Meditate (8.20 Keeneland, Juvenile Fillies Turf) - 1pt win @ 3/1
Cave Rock (9.00 Keeneland, Juvenile) - 2pts win @ 8/11
I’m Very Busy (9.40 Keeneland, Juvenile Turf) - 1pt each-way @ 12/1

Look out for Tom Collins’ Saturday Breeders’ Cup preview on betting.getsbk.com.