Belmont Stakes: Tom Collins opts for strong stayer in final Triple Crown contest

The United States Triple Crown enters its third and final leg on Saturday as the nation’s best three-year-olds arrive in New York to contest the 154th running of the Belmont Stakes.

Typically the hardest race to win in the series due to its stamina-sapping ten-furlong lap of Belmont Park, the ‘The Run for the Carnations’ has been the downfall for 20 previous Triple Crown contenders. You may recall subsequent Dubai World Cup winner California Chrome failing to stay the trip when fourth in 2014, as well as Smarty Jones’ shock defeat ten years prior.

Unfortunately, there isn’t a Triple Crown on the line this year after Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike bypassed the Preakness Stakes with connections opting to stick to their initial strategy. However, the shock Churchill Downs scorer is back and seemingly ready to prove that performance wasn’t a complete flash in the pan.

Derby winners who turn up in the Belmont generally go off favourite, but Rich Strike still has something to prove. Put in at 3.5 on the Morning Line, Eric Reed’s challenger is only third in the predicted market but has been working well over the last month and arguably boasts the best piece of form in this race.

What horseplayers are yet to witness is consistency. Rich Strike’s previous career-best Beyer on dirt before the Kentucky Derby was just 64. That speed figure would generally see him fall out the back of the television in a Grade 1, but he caused the shock of all shocks to beat the highly talented Epicenter and Zandon courtesy of a strong, late burst.

His Derby form stacks up, but how much of an advantage was sitting last behind break-neck fractions at Churchill? Answer: it was huge. The field, which was led by Summer Is Tomorrow, tracked through the first quarter in 21.73sec and posted a half in a mouthwatering 45.36s. A pace collapse was inevitable and he was the chief beneficiary. 

A similar race set-up looks extremely unlikely in the Belmont with just one bona fide speed angle, and his customary slow start should see him trail the field around the first bend. Although he may be improving and already has a Derby win under his belt, it’s tough to envisage Rich Strike backing up against this group.

The aforementioned lone front-runner is We The People, who has drawn gate one for Rodolphe Brisset and Flavien Prat. This son of Constitution - the brilliant sire of Tiz The Law - wasn’t considered a player in this division after a disappointing seventh in the Arkansas Derby (finished behind the reopposing Barber Road) in April, but his recent demolition job in the Peter Pan at this track launched him to the top of the market.

If the dramatic downpour on Thursday results in a wet track and he can dominate off the front, he will be tough to pass. However, he’s far too short in the market for my liking considering I’m sure he’s not the most talented horse in the race. Runners with an ideal trip regularly win, but I’d rather sidestep We The People this time.

Preference is for Kentucky Derby fifth, Mo Donegal. Todd Pletcher’s colt broke his maiden in strong-staying fashion at this track in October, and subsequently landed the Grade 2 Remsen and Grade 2 Wood Memorial on his two most recent starts in New York.

His Wood Memorial victory was far more impressive than it looks on paper. Not only did he run down Preakness winner Early Voting, who was able to set his own fractions in front, but Mo Donegal’s finishing effort was nothing short of mind-boggling. Stepping up to the 1m1f distance that day saw him produce a big career-best, and his running style strongly suggests he will relish the extra ground that he encounters in the Belmont.

Being awarded gate one was the beginning of the end for Mo Donegal in the Kentucky Derby and he ran brilliantly to finish just outside the money. It’s almost impossible to win from the coffin box in that contest, especially with a slow starter, and he covered a ton of ground to challenge ten-wide in the stretch run. 

I like his recent maintenance works at this track and, although a preferred pace collapse may not materialise, Irad Ortiz should have him in a workable position turning in.

Recommended bet

Mo Donegal @ 3.75