2,000 Guineas: Tom Collins provides his tip and analysis for Saturday's feature

Being labelled as the best in your industry can be daunting for some, but the amount of weight on the shoulders of 2021 Champion Trainer Charlie Appleby, who also scooped the TRC Global Rankings World Trainer of the Year prize, will be greatly reduced if he saddles his first Qipco 2,000 Guineas winner on Saturday.

Appleby, who sent out 113 domestic winners and recorded Group 1 successes in England, France, Canada and the USA last season, is yet to train a 2,000 Guineas winner after nine attempts. The market indicates that there is a good chance it will be tenth-time lucky.

The Newmarket handler is doubly represented in this year’s edition with star performers Native Trail and Coroebus set to carry Godolphin’s royal blue silks in the first Classic of the 2022 Flat season. Available at 2.44 and 8.2 on Smarkets at the time of writing, Appleby’s star duo combine for over 52% of the market. So, will that dominance be reflected on the track?

Coroebus is one of seven horses that have been away from the racetrack for six months or longer - in competitive mode, anyway. Hailing from Appleby’s Newmarket base you would assume that he will be rip-roaring fit, such is the quality of the facilities at Moulton Paddocks, and a recent gallop will have him spot on.

However, even though his pedigree (by Dubawi out of a Teofilo mare) and juvenile form suggest that he needs at least a mile, I’m of the opinion that Coroebus might be better suited to seven furlongs. There is no doubt that he gets this trip, but his high cruising speed and instant acceleration indicates he is more comparable to Pinatubo than Dawn Approach.

His gut-wrenching defeat in last year’s Royal Lodge is firmly stuck in my mind and, given he will be fresh and is drawn on the wing in stall one, there is every chance that James Doyle’s mount might struggle to settle, thus limiting his finishing burst and stamina reserves. 

Stablemate Native Trail is also positioned on the wing in gate 15, the same draw that Kameko overcame in 2020. The pace (Royal Patronage) appears low, so backers of the likely short-priced favourite may have a couple of nervy moments in the opening stages as their selection looks for cover. Should he achieve it, there is no doubt that he’s the most likely winner of this race.

This son of Oasis Dream was purchased from the breeze-up sales but has never performed as if that was the case. I was fortunate enough to be at Sandown when he made a winning debut last summer and the vibes around the racetrack were that we could see a potential star performer - and they weren’t wrong. He was calm in both the preliminaries and on the track and boasted clear star quality.

He beat Royal Patronage by four lengths without breaking a sweat and quickly rose to the top of his division with victories in the Superlative Stakes and National Stakes. Faults were hard to find and punters sent him off as the odds-on favourite for the Dewhurst. He duly delivered. 

Native Trail has topped this market ever since and couldn’t have done much more than romp home in an uncompetitive edition of the Craven on his return. With race fitness on his side, as well as winning course-and-distance form, being proven on the ground and ranking far superior on official ratings, he is supremely hard to oppose. 

Touching on ratings, Native Trail already boasts a mark of 122 and the average RPR recorded by winners of the last ten 2,000 Guineas winners has been 122.3. On that evidence, he doesn’t even need to improve to justify favouritism here. 

Two horses coming into this race off long layoffs, like the aforementioned Coroebus, are Vertem Futurity winner Luxembourg and National Stakes runner-up Point Lonsdale, both of whom represent ten-time 2,000 Guineas winning trainer Aidan O’Brien. 

The former was touted as the likely favourite for this race when he bolted up in the Beresford, but his subsequent Doncaster success left a little to be desired and he currently boasts an identical rating (115) to Coroebus, 7lb shy of Native Trail. I’m not quite sure what to expect from him. 

Point Lonsdale was another colt that hinted at potential Classic glory during his two-year-old season, but he still doesn’t know which way Native Trail went in the National Stakes last September. Three-and-a-half lengths separated the pair on that occasion and, given he hasn’t been seen since and Native Trail has only supplemented his success, there is no reason to believe the form will be reversed. 

Maiden winner Eydon and turf debutant Checkandchallenge deserve a second look, while I remain unconvinced that a mile is the optimum trip for Perfect Power (there is always time to revert to the Commonwealth Cup route!).

Recommended bet

Native Trail (3.40 Newmarket) @ 2.44