Zurich Classic 2023 Tips: Bryan Nicholson looks to back up last week’s winner

Pete Dye courses are the theme as we move from one of his gems at Harbour Town to another at TPC Louisiana, which is more scorable than his other masterpieces.

TPC Louisiana produces a lot of par-breakers and excitement, so what better venue to host the lone PGA tour team event? An alternating fourball and foursomes format sees 80 teams competing for honours and 400 FedEx Cup points each. The low 33 teams plus ties will qualify for the weekend. 

Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele are becoming a standout pairing in team events and they blitzed the field last year after opening with a 59 in fourballs. Expect the opening day total to be low again, and the first-round leader market is potentially one to take a stab at.

The Course

Numerous birdies are likely on one of the easier courses on tour, and I will largely follow the theme of aggressive pairings who have good shot-making ability around tricky greens. 

Generous fairways and sparse rough mean par-breakers are required around TPC Louisiana, which plays around 7,425 yards to a par of 72. The course features undulating and tiered surfaces of above-average size, which are guarded by deep pot bunkers. 

Proximity to the hole will be key on an approach shot course. Low scoring in both formats will be required for the win, but players must take advantage in fourballs and keep it steady in the foursomes.

The Contenders

It’s always worth keeping an eye on some outsiders in the Zurich Classic team event, especially for betting the fourball format. The market this year is half-filled with token teams, but the competitive half should be more closely priced. As it stands, the Cantlay/Schauffele and Morikawa/Homa pairings look to be taking up too much market percentage.

My first bet will be Kurt Kitayama and Taylor Montgomery (22 to win), who stand out as a perfect Zurich Classic pairing, especially for the fourballs. Kitayama is still on a high after winning at Bay Hill, while Montgomery has been a bit of a surprise package on the PGA Tour this season. 

The latter is a big hitter and takes pride in destroying the short-to-medium range putting stats and par-breakers category. Montgomery leads the ‘putts-per-round’ and ‘birdies or better’ percentage metrics. He lies second in total birdies, first in par 4 birdies or better and has made more eagles than anyone. These two former UNLV teammates and friends could complement each other nicely and I expect them to start fast on day one.

Another pairing worthy of note is Billy Horschel and Sam Burns (16.5 to win), who should be taking their fair share of the market that the top two teams have gobbled up. Horschel may not be in the best form, but he’s not playing too badly, he loves TPC Louisiana (and the food there!) and Pete Dye courses in general. Horschel won here in the singles competition back in 2013 and he also won the second edition of the team event in 2018 with Scott Piercy. 

He teams up with the in-form Sam Burns, who grew up in Louisiana and went to college at LSU. Burns and Horschel have previous in this event with a fourth-placed finish two years ago, while they were just pipped by Cantlay and Schauffele last year.

Finally, keep an eye on the streaky Mark Hubbard and big-hitting Ryan Brehm (150 to win). Brehm has been in-and-out of form since his PGA Tour win this time last year, but he just missed the cut at the RBC Heritage, where he opened with a 69, and held the first-round lead at Valspar. 

Hubbard, meanwhile, has some sneaky form sandwiching a couple of missed cuts. He’s 47th in total birdies and was right up towards the top of the leaderboard on Sunday at Harbour Town before eventually finishing 11th. They could start fast in the fourballs and bag a top 10 finish.

Zurich Classic 2023 Tips

Billy Horschel and Sam Burns to win @ 16.5
Kurt Kitayama and Taylor Montgomery to win @ 22
Mark Hubbard and Ryan Brehm to win @ 150