Wells Fargo Championship 2023 Tips

Another $20million purse and 500 FedEx points are up for grabs as another designated elevated status event takes centre stage at the Wells Fargo Championship.

Defending champ Max Homa seeks his third success at the tournament, an achievement that has already been realised by this year’s market leader Rory McIlroy, who won in 2010, 2015 and 2021.

A strong field assembles in Charlotte, sans Jon Rahm who is taking a well-deserved break. Mexico Open winner Tony Finau will peg it up, as will Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay and Jordan Spieth, who did some damage in the Presidents’ Cup at the back end of 2022.

The Course

The brief around this par 71 track playing circa 7,538 yards is: bomb the ball from the tips and launch it into orbit on the approach into perched greens due to segmented pin positions. Shorter hitters need not apply for the big bucks.

Bermuda grass is the theme and, while the rough was up in the PGA championship here in 2017 when Justin Thomas won, it usually gives players a good chance to recover if they stray from the short stuff.

JB Holmes won here in 2014 using a ‘bomb and gouge’ strategy when he only hit 45% of fairways, but his short irons did the rest. Quail Hollow is a big tree-lined parklands track with elevation changes throughout.

The Contenders

Davis Riley (120 to win, 10 to place) rates 8.93 on my progressive form model after his win with good friend Nick Hardy at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. Now with pressure off and his confidence at an all-time high, Riley will be looking to ride the wave and grab his maiden solo win on tour at a gaff that suits him perfectly.

Riley ranks 25th in strokes gained: approach and 12th in proximity to the hole this season. The American hits it high with his short irons and approach play, which is what’s required here, and the Bermuda grass plays into the 26-year-olds hands.

He ranked eighth in total driving last year and fourth in approaches inside 100 yards demonstrating his wedge ability, which further strengthens his case this week.

Another American to consider is Patrick Rodgers (130 to win, 8 to place), who now owns a progressive form rating of 9.33 on the model after closing with a seven-under round in Mexico last week.

Rodgers finished second here in 2015 - he lost out to Rory McIlroy - and I noted his perfect game for the course at the time. He has a couple of other top 40s in a handful of appearances at Quail Hollow, too.

His course-fit model rating is 8.65, but he loses some points for putting. Furthermore, Rodgers sits 35th in strokes gained off the tee and his tee-to-green prowess for Quail is ahead of most of the field.

Third up is Sahith Theegala (60 to win, 4.7 to place), who should like Quail Hollow with his booming fade off the tee and effortless power from the tips. He rates 9.33 on the progressive form model with two runner-up finishes under his belt this term.

Without any stats really jumping off the page, bar the putting and birdie metrics, Theegala seems to be able to turn it on and mix it with the big boys as he showed at the Masters.

With progressive form of 34th, eighth and third in his three appearances here, I’ll also add Keith Mitchell (90 to win, 5.9 to place) to my portfolio, especially given his course-fit rating is a tasty 8.96.

The American lies sixth in strokes gained off the tee and first in total driving in 2023, and he is very much a horses-for-courses kind of player. Mitchell has a couple of recent top fives at the Genesis and the AT&T Pebble Beach pro-am in his CV, and he took sixth at the Zurich Classic when partnered with Sungjae Im.

Note: The course-fit ratings are scored out of 10 and modelled on official strokes gained stats, key metrics, and weighted course premiums. Progressive form ratings are also rated out of 10 based on an average of adjusted recent finishing positions.