Valspar Championship 2023 Tips: Riley and Hadwin headline Bryan Nicholson’s shortlist

It seems like we have been in Florida forever, but the 2023 Valspar Championship at the pristine Copperhead Course in Palm Harbour rounds off the East coast swing. 

I was big on current Valspar favourite Justin Thomas (12.5) at the Players Championship last week, but after close examination it still felt like his game was a little off, especially with his scoring clubs. 

He heads what looks to be quite an open market ahead, with former winner Jordan Spieth (14) and Sam Burns (20), who has won the last two renewals here, in behind. I thought the latter might be a little skinnier in the betting, but he didn’t make my shortlist. Let’s get into the preview.

The Course

Copperhead allows players a bit of room for a biff off the tees, but accuracy is required. If they can turn it both ways with ease on this tree-lined and dog-legged track, then that’s even better. The real premium at Copperhead is on approaches and it might pay to load up the stats on strokes-gained-approach and approaches from the 150 to 200-yard range to see who is striking it well. 

This is the one track on tour where low par-5 scoring generally isn’t all that important. The longer holes here have often been card-wreckers in the past and lay-ups or three-shotters are the norm. 

Subtle undulations in the Bermuda greens at Copperhead make it tough to sink short putts. There is also a signature stretch called the Snake Pit, which awaits down the stretch. Who will be bitten in 2023? And who will slide into the winner’s enclosure?

The Contenders 

The aforementioned Burns and Davis Riley (42 to win, 4.5 to finish top 10) battled it out here last season. Why? Both absolutely flushed their irons. Their iron play separated them from the field at one stage, and that is the key metric and the premium around here. 

Following a stint in the doldrums, Riley is returning to top form. He featured early on at the Players but missed the cut. I was glad about that as he is my best bet here and I wanted an inflated price. The American was 29th at the Honda Classic, which he backed-up by finishing tied-eighth at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The 26-year-old also ranks 29th in approach and 21st in proximity.

Adam Hadwin (27 to win, 4 to finish top 10) is another who fits all the criteria for Copperhead - and guess what? He’s won here before. That is no coincidence given Hadwin is one of the better ball strikers and shot shapers in the game - he loves this type of course. 

The Canadian is rounding into form with a progressive form rating of 8.4. He tied the first-round lead at Valspar with a 64 in 2022 and ended up finishing seventh in the event. Maybe he gets compensation this time around. 

Keegan Bradley (25 to win, 3.75 to finish top 10) did the same thing as Davis Riley and missed the Players Championship cut after a strong start, but anything can happen at Sawgrass. Prior to that, Keegan was one of the in-form men on tour with a progressive rating of 9.2. 

The 36-year-old says that his game is in great shape right now and he rates 8.23 on the course-fit-o-meter for Innisbrook. Bradley was second at the Valspar Championship in 2021, where he held the first-round lead after shooting a 64.

The Longshots

Trey Mullinax (140 to win, 12 to finish top 10) and Akshay Bhatia (180 to win, 10 to finish top 10) are two players worth following this week at bigger odds. 

Bhatia comes here off the back of a runner-up spot in Puerto Rico, and he is currently standing out in the key iron stat categories for the Copperhead course. While Mullinax has a top-ten to his name at the Valspar and, prior to the Sawgrass, he was on the one to watch list - Mullinax’s progressive form rating was a solid 8.8.

The Super Longshot

The phrase ‘horses for courses’ applies here, and Copperhead is one of Luke Donald’s favourite venues. Donald (290 to win, 7 to finish top 20) has always been effective with the mid-to-long irons and can get up and down out of a bucket. 

The Ryder Cup captain won here in 2012 and owns a handful of top-five and top-ten finishes at Innisbrook Resort. He’s showing some positives this season and could be one to watch in the sub-markets like top 20 and first round leader.

Note: The course fit ratings are scored out of 10 and modelled on official strokes gained stats, key metrics, and weighted course premiums. Progressive form ratings are also rated out of 10 based on an average of adjusted recent finishing positions.

Valspar Championship 2023 Tips

Keegan Bradley @ 25 (to win) and 3.75 (to finish top 10)
Adam Hadwin @ 27 (to win) and 4 (to finish top 10)
Davis Riley @ 42 (to win) and 4.5 (to finish top 10)
Trey Mullinax @ 140 (to win) and 12 (to finish top 10)
Akshay Bhatia @ 180 (to win) and 10 (to finish top 10)
Luke Donald @ 7 (to finish top 20)