Valero Texas Open: why McIlroy's the man to beat, plus a tempting outsider

Masters warm-up

Rory McIlroy might not have been in action since The Players, but he's the man to beat in the Valero Texas Open as he bids to play his way into freewheeling form for the Masters next week.

The Holywood star is teeing it up the week before The Masters for the first time in eight years, and while he might have one eye on completing the career Grand Slam next week, he insists he's playing to get into competitive mode and avoid Masters hype.

"I think you try to shield yourself from all of that hype as best you can, you try not to read much, you try not to watch much TV, and you try to just focus on yourself and focus on your game," McIlroy said of his reasons for playing at TPC San Antonio for the first time since 2013.

"I think part of the reason I want to play in Texas leading into Augusta is because all I'm doing is focusing on getting my game ready to go, to not just play Augusta.

"It would be great to go to Texas and have a chance to win the golf tournament and that would be cool too. But it's just a way for me to get my mind away, get out of thinking so much about the future and focus a little bit more on the present. I think by playing the week before that helps me do that. I want to enter events feeling a sense of freedom in my swing. That's when I know I can play some of my best golf."

Jordan Spieth is the defending Texas Open champion and might represent better value than Rory McIlroy in San Antonio

Tough test

He might have played just once in San Antonio, but he made it count, finishing second, two strokes behind Martin Laird in 2013. As a result of that and four top 13 finishes from five starts this season, he's the betting favourite at 11.5, ahead of defending champion Jordan Spieth, to win his 21st PGA Tour title.

Texan Spieth has been in erratic form all year, but with the Masters approaching, he represents better value than McIlroy at 19.5 to win again.

However, the desert course remains one of the most testing on tour because of stiff Texas winds and heavy rough, and with driving accuracy and greens hit in regulation two essentials for any potential winner this week, it's no surprise that Canadian Corey Conners (23) won here in 2019 as a Monday qualifier.

Conners was third in last week's WGC Dell Technologies Match Play, while Mexico's Abraham Ancer (a quarter-finalist in Austin last week) was born in Texas, and as a local resident, he practices at this week's venue, making him an attractive bet at 26.

Outsiders to consider

Charley Hoffman is coming in with zero momentum after missing his last two cuts, but with a win in 2016 as well as three seconds and a tie for third among his nine top 15 finishes at TPC San Antonio, he's good value at 85.

As for an outsider, Denmark's Rasmus Hojgaard made the field thanks to his sixth-place finish in the Corales Puntacana Championship, and as a player with a strong short game, he has the tools to make a mockery of odds of 130.

Recommended bets

Rory McIlroy @ 11.5

Back Corey Conners @ 23

Back Rasmus Hojgaard @ 130