Valero Texas Open Preview: Lone Star State form to the fore

With just over a week to go until The Masters, we're getting to the nitty gritty of the season as the Valero Texas Open offers a final opportunity for those wanting to hone their skills ahead of the season’s first major. 

Scottie Scheffler was mighty close to the hat-trick in Texas last week when he finished runner-up for the second time at the Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Club. Stephan Jaegar had been threatening a win recently and came through to triumph by a solitary stroke over a handful of protagonists. 

Onto this week, Ludvig Aberg (11.5) is second in this week’s market to Rory McIlroy (9.4) and many are expecting the Swede to go well at Augusta so a bold show here could cause his price to contract; something worth considering for any selection at the Valero.

Masters’ specialist Jordan Spieth (19.5) also chooses to warm up here and there will be plenty of eyes on Hideki Matsuyama (18.5) ahead of his bid to win a second green jacket.

Corey Conners (22.0) is coming into some form, and he looks to go back-to-back here at the Valero Texas Open for what would be his third win at the event, while Max Homa (22.0) looks the perfect profile for TPC San Antonio where Total driving and Greens In Regulation is the brief on a track where the surfaces are some of the hardest on tour to scramble around.

The Course

TPC San Antonio (Oaks) is a par 72 designed by Greg Norman that stretches 7,438 yards. It has a mix of generous landing areas and tighter forest-lined fairways. The wind usually blows here. Two-time winner – Canadian Corey Conners holds the scoring record and once again Conners is at the top end of the ball-striking stats, perhaps giving us a clue as to what the key premium is this week. The greens at TPC San Antonio are elevated, surrounded by white marble bunkering, and offer some of the most pristine surfaces on the PGA Tour – miss them, and you’ll struggle to make par. The 17th hole is drivable, and the 16th incorporates a bunker on the green! We have a risk-reward par 5 to finish.

The Contenders

I’m going to take a shot much further down the market at the Valero Texas Open with three guys who make a lot of birdies...

Davis Riley (75.0 or 8.8 Top 10) has some form in Texas and finished T14 last week at the Houston Open, bookending his event with 65s. His second Korn Ferry tour title came at TPC San Antonio back in 2020. Tee-to-green game is king at the Oaks Course and Riley excels in this area having ranked 40th in SG: Approach, 44th in Total Driving, and 42nd in proximity to the hole in 2023.

Moving on now to TPC and low round specialist KH Lee (65.0 or 7.6 Top 10) who gets the nod. Lee is renowned for going low and has a stellar record on TPC courses - usually tracks that lend themselves to par breakers. Lee has notched two top 25s from three starts at TPC San Antonio and he comes here with a progressive form rating of 9.0 (out of 10) on my model.

Seamus Power (100.0 or 10.0 Top 10) also has a little bit of form in Texas (largely at the Byron Nelson) and he’s regaining form after injury troubles last year. The Irishman owns a string of top-35 finishes in 2024 so he’s simmering nicely. Power is ranked 11th in approaches from 125-150 yards and the short irons & wedge department will be key this week. The two-time PGA Tour winner was in the last group on the final day at the Valspar just a fortnight ago.

Recommended Bets

Back Davis Riley @ 75.0 (8.8 Top 10)
Back KH Lee @ 65.0 (7.6 Top 10)
Back Seamus Power @ 100.0 (10.0 Top 10)