Valero Texas Open 2023 Tips: Rickie Fowler heads Bryan Nicholson’s contenders

With the Masters just around the corner, perfect preparation over the next few days is crucial for a number of Augusta’s main contenders - two of which were seen in action last Sunday.

You might think I’m referring to Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler, but in actual fact I’m talking about their victors: Cameron Young and Sam Burns. The latter particularly impressed with a scorecard totalling eight under over his last 10 holes, which led to him claiming the Walter Hagen Cup over his fellow finalist.

With the strong competitive nature of the WGC Match Play followed by the Valero Texas Open, this ideal Masters’ trial will see a number of top players assemble in San Antonio. It also offers the last chance to qualify for next week’s major, and the most notable name trying to secure a place is Rickie Fowler, who sits second behind Tyrell Hatton in the betting.

The Course

A parkland style course with sculptured corridors winding between the tree line and desert rock, TPC San Antonio is one of the most pristine venues on the circuit. Total driving ability is key, as is a pristine short game with the elevated greens all incorporating false fronts and run off areas. 

The surfaces themselves are arguably the best for putting on the roster. Players will need to dial in their approaches to avoid treacherous up-and-downs.

The Contenders

It’s interesting to note that several players, including Ryan Fox, Alex Noren and the aforementioned Hatton, are making their first start here. With those guys taking up significant market percentage, I have looked elsewhere to find some nice value.

The first player on my shortlist is Rickie Fowler (21 to win, 3.2 to finish top 10) as he is chomping at the bit to qualify for The Masters. Fowler will be brimming with confidence after a strong Match Play performance that included an impressive defeat of Jon Rahm to open the group stage. He’s been relatively effective on this golf course in the past with a couple of top 20s from three recent appearances, and his game scores a 8.54 on the course-fit-o-meter, meaning he is expected to pick up around two shots in this event compared to a neutral venue.

Next up is Matt Kuchar (36 to win, 4 to finish top 10), who can’t be left out of the staking plan after a strong display last week - the highlight being a 7&6 thrashing of Si Woo Kim. 

‘Kooch’ has excellent course form at TPC San Antonio with an average finish of around 20th place over the last 10 years, which includes a runner-up spot. The veteran’s course-fit rating is 8.8 on my model.

A previous winner here is Davis Riley (28 to win, 3.65 to finish top 10), who’s success at this venue helped him secure promotion from the Korn Ferry Tour. He resides in Dallas, has played this course thousands of times, and knows it better than anyone else in the line-up.

Riley’s bare figures don’t really portray his promising performances in recent weeks - the 26-year-old scores 8.66 for progressive form in stroke play events. 

Finally, I want to add dark horse Cameron Davis (50 to win, 5.7 to finish top 10) to the mix after a solid display last week. He posted two wins from three games, but unfortunately Xander Schauffele whitewashed the group and qualified ahead of him. 

Davis also needs to win here to secure a place at the Masters, and the Aussie has to be of interest with a strong 8.6 course-fit rating for TPC San Antonio. He ranks 20th in strokes-gained-off-the-tee and, more importantly, 12th in approaches from 150-175 yards..

Note: The course-fit ratings are scored out of 10 and modelled on official strokes gained stats, key metrics, and weighted course premiums. Progressive form ratings are also rated out of 10 based on an average of adjusted recent finishing positions.

Valero Texas Open 2023 Tips

Rickie Fowler @ 21 (to win), 3.2 (to finish top 10)
Davis Riley @ 28 (to win), 3.65 (to finish top 10)
Matt Kuchar @ 36 (to win), 4 (to finish top 10)
Cameron Davis @ 50 (to win), 5.7 (to finish top 10)