US PGA Championship 2023 Tips: Who does Bryan Nicholson like in this week’s major?

Former world number one and four-time major winner Ernie Els once described Oak Hill as the best, fairest and toughest championship golf course he has ever played.

The course then isn’t exactly the same as it is now, but we are still in for a treat with the track lengthened and widened after some recent restoration. 

The big three - Jon Rahm, Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy - dominate the market. However, it might just be the first two named, both of which are currently priced at 9 with SBK, that fit the course and stand out as front-runners.

Several big Championship events have been hosted at the East Course at Oak Hill, including all six of the major competitions stateside, which includes the Ryder Cup. Jason Dufner won the last time Oak Hill was on the PGA Championship roster in 2013, and the leaderboard was littered with strategists and players who ranked highly in the driving accuracy. 

The event was held at a different time of year back then, but just 21 players finished under par and only ‘the Duff’ reached double digits. Much will depend on the weather this year.

The Course

The recently restored Donald Ross Par 70 East course at Oak Hill will play just under 7,400 yards for the 2023 PGA Championship test. The weather this time of year in Rochester, New York, can be cold and windy with grasses and trees not fully blossomed, so it remains to be seen what’s in store. 

Restoration of the course has widened fairways somewhat, and they have opened up the greens with some new pin positions. Some trees have been trimmed back and bunkering, especially around the greens, has been manicured. Stay out for the fairway traps as they are virtually automatic 0.5-1 stroke penalties.

The Premiums

Total driving and ball striking are massively important this week with big elevated perched greens surrounded largely by deep bunkering and rough, as opposed to the usual Donald Ross catchment areas. 

It’s a parklands track with a stadium-like feel and freshly cut patterns in the grass. Allen’s creek meanders through the East course and it estuaries into ponds in a couple of places. Rory McIlroy emphasised the “need to drive the ball very well” around Oak Hill on his last visit here. Bentgrass greens now dominate, while Kentucky Bluegrass and fescues are the dominant strain if you stray from the short stuff.

Graeme McDowell once said: “Played nine holes at Oak Hill prepping for next week’s PGA Championship. The rough is brutal! Check out the length of this grass, just a foot off 12th green!”.

Here are the key metrics this week for Oak Hill:

• Total driving
• Ball Striking
• Long-to-mid iron efficiency
• Strong approach
• Tidy short game
• Strong mentality
• Sand positive with good bunker skills
• Good strategist
• Bogey avoidance
• Wind positive

The Contenders

The contenders at Oak Hill this week will likely be those in good current form with a high rating in Ball Striking and Total Driving statistics. I will continue to monitor Jordan Spieth’s wrist problem and his drift in the market, but there are three guys in so-called ‘tier two’ that I love for the PGA Championship 2023. 

First up is Patrick Cantlay (22 to win, 3 to finish top 10), who ranks second in total driving and surprisingly 18th in driving accuracy. The American is awarded a 9.38/10 rating in my course-fit model and 9.8 for progressive form. Cantlay is up there in all the key metric departments, including third in ball striking and ninth in bogey avoidance.

I also want to be on the right side of Xander Schauffele (23 to win, 3 to finish top 10), who finished fourth in ball striking last year and has a progressive form rating of 10, meaning he is top of my list for guys trending upwards on tour right now. 

After a top 10 finish at the Masters, he took fourth at Harbour Town and finished runner-up to Wyndham Clark at Quail Hollow. Schauffele is sixth in strokes gained: approach, sixth in tee-to-green and leads the approach stats in the 150-175 yards category. The American rates 8.81 on my course-fit model.

Finally, Tony Finau (29 to win, 3.2 to finish top 10) now ranks first in strokes gained approach and 17th in total driving, while also sitting 10th in ball striking and 11th in bogey avoidance. He’s also 21st in sand saves, which could be key this week. 

The big man lies third in strokes gained tee to green and, after combining progressive form (9.53) and course-fit (9.22) with his juicy price, Finau might just be the best value at Oak Hill this week.

The Outsiders

Tyrell Hatton (48 to win, 4.4 to finish top 10) now owns a rating of 9.8 for progressive form on the model and his iron play was on point last week in Texas. He was seventh in tee-to-green there and is now 11th in strokes gained: approach for the season. Add this to a Total Driving ranking of ninth and 25th in bogey avoidance and Hatton is standing out in most of the key metric categories. He’s pushing 9/10 on the course-fit-o-meter.

A couple of LIV guys who could go well include the streaky Taylor Gooch (120 to win, 6.6 to finish top 10) off the back of two LIV tour wins. Gooch was 13th in ball striking last season on the PGA Tour and he also owns a stellar short game. 

The other is Brendan Steele (300 to win, 17.5 to finish top 10), who was eighth in ball striking in 2022 and 11th in Total Driving before he left for LIV. Brendan notched a top 10 last year at the PGA championship and is renowned for going low and starting fast.  

Gooch also recorded a top 20 at last year’s PGA Championship, and these are the kinds of guys that could be in contention for first round leader. Both excel in the wind.

One more name for you. Adam Scott (100 to win, 6.8 to finish top 10) has a couple of interesting stats leading into the PGA Championship at Oak Hill: he’s 22nd in sand saves, and second in putting from 10-15 feet. When he’s on form, he loves a Grand National style test like this where he can wear opponents down from tee to green. The Aussie is still keen to mix it with the big boys and fifth-placed finish at the Wells Fargo and eighth in Texas last week suggests his game is in good order.

Note: The course-fit ratings are scored out of 10 and modelled on official strokes gained stats, key metrics, and weighted course premiums. Progressive form ratings are also rated out of 10 based on an average of adjusted recent finishing positions.

US PGA Championship 2023 Tips

Patrick Cantlay @ 22 (to win), 3 (to finish top 10)
Xander Schauffele @ 23 (to win), 3 (to finish top 10)
Tony Finau @ 29 (to win), 3.2 (to finish top 10)
Tyrell Hatton @ 48 (to win), 4.4 (to finish top 10)
Adam Scott @ 100 (to win), 6.8 (to finish top 10)
Taylor Gooch @ 120 (to win), 6.6 (to finish top 10)
Brendan Steele @ 300 (to win), 17.5 (to finish top 10)