US Open 2023 Tips: Jordan Spieth features among Bryan Nicholson’s picks this week

The 2023 US Open will be hosted at Los Angeles Country Club - a course that has a bit of a Brookline feel and is generally considered a hidden gem. 

This will be just the third edition to be held at a venue in Southern California after Riviera CC and Torrey Pines South hosted previously. LA Country Club is just down the road from Riviera and Gil Hanse helped redesign the North Course back in 2010. The track was originally designed by George Thomas and is said to be one of the most intriguing and mysterious venues in golf over the last 100 years.

Englishman Matt Fitzpatrick will attempt to defend the crown he won in 2022 when he tees it up on the west coast track. However, trends suggest he faces a tough task as only two players have won back-to-back US Opens since 1951 (Curtis Strange 1988/89 and Brooks Koepka (2017/2018).

The usual protagonists head the betting, but the US Open may just prove to be the toughest test for the market leaders to hold true to their form. This will be a grind and adopting a strong mentality for four rounds will be key. Only nine guys broke par at Brookline and we should expect more of the same at LACC.

The Course

The North Course is a heathland and woodland type hybrid. It’s set in the backdrop of the City of Los Angeles, and has notable elevation changes with generous, undulating and cambering fairways standing out in the feature department. There will be a lot of blind shots, especially from the tee, and the course will play to a par 70 that stretches 7,423 yards in length. 

Raised, shallow greens with narrow entrances are a theme, and the surfaces are significant in size with some strange shapes massaged into them. Deep, rugged bunkering surrounds the complexes. Look out for back-to-front slopes, in the style of Donald Ross. 

I believe there will be an emphasis on accurate approaches and imagination around the greens. What you do off the tips doesn’t matter so much. Bermuda rough lines the fairways and both thick rough and mown areas surround the Bentgrass greens, some incorporating false fronts. Being short-sided is a no-go. 

Local man Max Homa shot a course record (61) here in 2013, but everyone is expecting much tougher conditions this week.

The Contenders

Jordan Spieth (28 to win, 4.4 to finish top 10) owns a course-fit rating of 9.37 in my model. He ranks 15th in approaches from 125-150 yards and sixth from 150-175 yards, while also holding seventh in scrambling from 20-30 yards and 26th in approach putt performance. Lag putting is vital here, and he had a nice warm-up with a tied-fifth at Memorial. Chalk Spieth up as my first pick.

Next is Tyrell Hatton (36 to win, 4.5 to finish top 10), who came 12th at Memorial. He improved on that effort by just missing out by a shot last week in the Canadian Open after closing with four birdies. His all-around game is immense – third in SG: total, seventh in strokes gained putting, 11th in approach - and he ranks 9.93 for progressive form in my model. 

Furthermore, he’s 11th on tour in scrambling, fourth in total putting and fourth in approach putt performance. His course fit is 9/10 on the meter.

The final player among the shorter prices who I’m interested in is Sung-jae Im (75 to win, 6 to finish top 10). The Korean won in his home country a few weeks back and was up there at Memorial until a bad final round saw him fall away. Im ranks 20th in strokes gained around the greens and eighth in sand saves, while also sitting at 34th in bogey avoidance. He’s hard to overlook with an 8.53 on the course-fit-o-meter.

The Outsiders

I’m also keen to focus on course correlation between LACC and Sedgefield, which hosts the Wyndham Championship. The thinking is that there is an emphasis on approaches, imagination and creativity around tricky back-to-front sloping greens at both venues.

Four longshots hit the brief, headed by Tom Kim (210 to win, 10 to finish top 10), who blitzed the field at the Wyndham Championship last year after opening with a quadruple bogey. Kim ranks 16th in strokes gained approach, ninth in GIR and first in approaches from 125-150 yards. He’s 42nd in scrambling and 10th in bogey avoidance, which is good enough for me.

Another name worthy of a second look is Russell Henley (100 to win, 9.2 to finish top 10) as he has finished in the top 10s in his last three tournaments at Sedgefield. He rates 8.9 for course-fit but he’s been regularly challenging Morikawa at the top of the iron stats in recent years. 

Henley scores 10/10 for both approaches and long irons on my profile pages, which are derived from official PGA Tour stats, while also finishing second in approach performance last year. He’s also ninth in proximity and 12th in approaches from 125-150 yards. The American sits in the twenties for scrambling and approach putt performance, and finished tied-fourth at The Masters earlier in the year.

Si Woo Kim (75 to win, 7.2 to finish top 10) also owns a stellar record at Sedgefield. He is showing progressive form of 9.2 on the model, which culminated with a fourth-placed finish at Memorial and second at the AT&T Byron Nelson. 

Kim is a winner of the Wyndham at Sedgefield and has finished second, third and fifth there in three other editions. As a result, his course-fit for LA Country Club is 8.96. He also ranks 10/10 in approach and long irons on my player profiles, and is 26th for scrambling and 21st in approaches on tour. 

Finally, there are worse-priced outsiders than Denny McCarthy (140 to win, 9.2 to finish top 10), who loves tough courses and has great durability. He also owns some form at Wyndham - he has averaged around 15th in his last three events there - and has recorded a top ten in the Wells Fargo on another Championship course. 

The American rates 9/10 for progressive form on my model. He is fourth in strokes gained putting, 10th in scrambling and crucially first in putting inside 10 feet this year, which gives him the nod for me.

Note: The course-fit ratings are scored out of 10 and modelled on official strokes gained stats, key metrics, and weighted course premiums. Progressive form ratings are rated out of 10 based on an average of adjusted recent finishing positions.

US Open 2023 Tips

Jordan Spieth @ 28 (to win), 4.4 (to finish top 10)
Tyrrell Hatton @ 36 (to win), 4.5 (to finish top 10)
Sung-jae Im @ 75 (to win), 6 (to finish top 10)
Si Woo Kim @ 75 (to win), 7.2 (to finish top 10)
Russell Henley @ 100 (to win), 9.2 (to finish top 10)
Denny McCarthy @ 140 (to win), 9.2 (to finish top 10)
Tom Kim @ 210 (to win), 10 (to finish top 10)